Michael Healy-Rae could be 'dark horse' in presidential race, says Ivan Yates
In an interview with BreakingNews.ie, Mr Yates said he had initally been surprised about speculation over the Kerry TD throwing his hat in the ring in the race for
Áras an Uachtaráin, however, he now believes Mr Healy-Rae would have a good chance.
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"One name I've picked up with my political antennae, who people believe would win if he ran is, believe it or not, Michael Healy-Rae.
"What people said to me was, if there has to be another candidate other than Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Catherine Connolly, what about Michael Healy-Rae?
"This is from talking to people from all sorts of background, when I put it to them what do you think of the mad idea that the guy with the cap would run? They immediately said to me, both rural and Dublin, 'oh if he ran, he'd win'.
"The Healy-Raes are seen as doers, it's distinctive. Even second generation people in Dublin would see the merit in it, and that he has not only name recognition but a brand as well."
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Mr Yates, who served as minister for agriculture and now hosts the Path To Power podcast with Matt Cooper, siad Mr Healy-Rae could be a "dark horse" in the upcoming presidential election.
When asked about whether Mr Healy-Rae would really consider a bid, Mr Yates said he had put it to Minister of State, but Mr Healy-Rae would "keep his cards close to his chest".
Michael Healy-Rae is different and for him that is a big plus.
"I see him as a dark horse. Only this morning I asked him for his view, one thing is certain, he will keep his cards close to his chest. A bit like Michael McDowell, he won't object to the speculation. It's always nice in politics to stay in the news, there's no downside.
"I'm surprised at the high respect he has outside of Kerry, he's seen as a doer and a successful person in his own right.
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"I always say it's not the same that sells, it's different that sells.
"Michael Healy-Rae is different and for him that is a big plus."
The fact Fine Gael have nominated Mairead McGuinness will put further pressure on Fianna Fáil to run their own candidate, Mr Yates said.
He said the lack of an obvious choice is their main issue, and that Taoiseach Micheál Martin is the strongest candidate.
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He also believes the fact Mary Lou McDonald has been linked with a run will bring another dimension to the race.
Kerry TD Michael Healy-Rae could be a "dark horse" in the presidential race, according to former minister Ivan Yates.
"The big factor is now that Fine Gael are running a conventional campaign with Mairead McGuinness, Sinn Féin will have to react to that. I think Sinn Féin have taken the decision to run their own candidate instead of backing a left unity candidate.
"The three choices will be Michelle O'Neill, John Finucane and Mary Lou McDonald, the strongest of those is Mary Lou in terms of driving their agenda, their brand, their statement.
"She has had two goes at becoming taoiseach without making much progress, now might be the time rather than going for taoiseach again in 2029.
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It would suit that strategy if she could get elected to the park. I think it is a gamechanger, if she stands it becomes a completely different election.
"A lot more exciting, in terms of political capital... the stakes will be much higher."
Fianna Fáil dilemma
Mr Yates added: "For what can be a very moribund, personalised, abusive, esoteric contest, this will turn it into a proper national heavyweight title. With a Fine Gael and Sinn Féin player in it, Fianna Fáil cannot sit on their hands, they will need to run a candidate whether they like it or not.
"Party faithful will say the only one who can win it is Micheál Martin, and that he owes it to the party to stand.
"I don't see him giving up a job he's worked so hard for to be taoiseach again, I don't see him being tempted by the presidency.
"It's his personal decision and I don't think he wants it. So what will Fianna Fáil do? They can't stay out though.
"I originally thought there will be a desire not to give it to Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil and let them have everything, and that is an opportunity for Mary Lou.
"I thought Frances Black had a great chance as a unity candidate, but that would have to have buy in from Sinn Féin."
With Ms McGuinness and Ms Connolly declared as early candidates, Mr Yates believes Fianna Fáil may adopt a strategy of entering the race at a later date.
"If Fianna Fáil get involved, the route of four councils for a nomination could be choked off. So the likes of Peter Casey and Ming Flanagan will not be facilitiated.
"We know that Michael D finishes on November 11th, so the polling day has to be 60 days before that so some time between mid October and early November. I think Fianna Fáil have taken the view that by the time the media have done their forensic, in the weeds analysis of Mairead and Catherine they will be damaged goods, and they will play their hand late to try to scoop it. The problem is they don't have a candidate.
"It's hard to know when some of them don't know themselves yet. What I'm hearing from Fianna Fáil over the last six months is when it comes to the presidency, it costs €500,000, no guarantee you'll get your 12.5 per cent vote for your money back, it can be unpredictable. Look at Fine Gael, they got 38 per cent of the vote in the 2011 general election and Gay Mitchell received 6 per cent in the presidential election."
Mr Yates believes the presidential election would be more "party political" than personality driven if Mary Lou McDonald takes the Sinn Féin nomination.
Mary Lou being in the running changes things as it will make it highly political, and almost tribal.
He added that the Coalition parties would be desperate to keep her out of Áras an Uachtaráin, as she would likely take up an active commentary on various national issues rather than the ceremonial role some believe the President should fulfill.
"Mary Lou being in the running changes things as it will make it highly political, and almost tribal.
"Let the games begin.
"What we're looking at now is a much more party political election. Previously it was more of a personality contest with the likes of Joe Duffy and Miriam O'Callaghan linked with bids.
"It now looks like a more conventional party gun fight. They will all be more invested in it, but unlike a European election it will be very door to door, fought through the media and on debates.
"I remain to be convinced that the currently declared candidates will provide the winner.
"There's a fundamental dichotomy of views about the presidency. One is it's a representational role, the other is that it's to change Ireland. This is a constitutional and political row.
"With someone like Mary Lou it's limitations would become even more frayed, and maybe attritional, but a lot of people would say that's a good thing. They're not in favour of an FF/FG heghemony and that in itself will be an issue upon which the public is very divided.
"We live in a world of culture wars, so that will be thrown in to everything."
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