
Liverpool vs Southampton betting preview and predictions: A goal-fest, or a shut-out?
It seems counterintuitive to suggest that a title favourite like Liverpool and a relegation candidate like Southampton could produce a wager-worthy game. The Reds' odds to win the tie are a paltry 2/15, while their opponents, this weekend's underdogs, are weighing in at a staggering 20/1. Whether you risk a lot to win a little or a small return in a vain attempt to win big, it's probably best to avoid this clash and wait for more enticing odds.
Advertisement
Or is it?
There is an alternative, more intriguing, rabbit hole to explore. The lopsided nature of this clash could pave the way for more enticing markets to punt on – you just need to know where to look. Below, we dissect three areas where hidden betting values may exist.
For more stories like this click here to follow The Athletic's sports betting section and have them added to your feed.
Very few fanbases – bar Arsenal's – head into the game caring about how often the ball sits near the corner flag. They just want their side to score more goals than their opponent. But in fixtures like this, the number of corners – or lack of them in this case – might have good value.
For the Saints, the statistics paint a bleak picture. They have the league's worst expected goal differential (xGD) per 90 minutes and week on week, face a barrage of shots at their goal. And yet, Ivan Jurić's side only allow 6.22 corners per game, while the Reds have let in the third least at 4.04 per 90.
Combine those two numbers, and you'll barely squeeze it under the 10.5 corners market, which Betfair are pricing at 5/4; it might seem like limited value, but recent results make this contextually relevant.
Liverpool are still reeling from their 1-0 Champions League Round of 16 win over PSG. Their hosts suffocated Arne Slot's counter-press, racking up a eye-opening 2.58xG. Still, somehow, between an 87th-minute Harvey Elliot decider, and an insurmountable Alisson Becker between the sticks, the Parisians could not turn their hopes into reality.
The Reds' came out victorious, but the consequence of emptying the proverbial tank so early in the week could have interesting ramifications. For instance, Liverpool's usual aggressive pressing and ability to force turnovers may be blunted to conserve energy in the Saints' final third.
Advertisement
It's interesting to note that even though the visitors put up a fight in a narrow 3-2 defeat against Liverpool in November, they only mustered three corners. The 13 total corners in that match were largely a result of Liverpool scrambling to secure a win against a side not yet destined for the drop. If Slot's juggernauts get a goal early on, this return match could be a passive pass-fest.
If Liverpool lack the same urgency to force the ball into the box for shots and deflections that typically lead to corner kicks, the under 10.5 corners option appears quite appealing. A relegation-bound Southampton certainly won't mind either.
In games like this, it's easy to get caught scrolling through Liverpool's anytime goalscorer odds or a lucrative team-over-total pricing. However, an often-overlooked strategy is to avoid how the favourites will hammer the back of the net and instead focus on their opponents doing the opposite. After all, who wants to wager against goals in a game between the best and worst side in the league?
Case in point: as an overarching market, the Merseysiders' chance of winning the game weighed in at 2/15. But, if you throw in a clean sheet, they increase to 11/10. Nifty.
Is this likely to pan out against the Saints given Liverpool's recent defensive problems, especially considering how vulnerable their backline looked against PSG? Well, yes, Allison had to stand on his head to secure the clean sheet, but there's one glaringly obvious difference between that showdown and this one: Southampton are not PSG.
In the three matches leading up to the game against Luis Enrique's team, Liverpool did not allow more than 0.6 expected goals (xG) in any match. In fact, they conceded only a total of 1.4 xG across those games, even when facing strong teams like Manchester City, Aston Villa, and Newcastle.
Trying to predict exactly how much an underdog will be dominated can be a tall order. Over/under bets, team goal totals or even anytime goalscorers can be a toss-up in one-sided affairs. If you are convinced the favourite will win but can't pinpoint by how much, scoring bands or correct score combinations can provide good value while giving you leeway in the outcome. Sometimes, the odds are generous enough to sprinkle a little on a few different bets.
Advertisement
For instance, Liverpool to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 is priced at 13/5 on Betfair. If you're worried the Saints might knick a goal in an imbalanced loss, the 2-1, 3-1, 4-1 Liverpool win combination – rolling in at 11/4 – could also be insightful.
Those odds are good enough that you can place a wager on both lines, gain six score combinations within the projected range of outcomes and still manage a small profit. The alternative? A paltry 2/15 payout on the Liverpool moneyline – the low-value kind that bookmakers want you to bet.
(Photo credit: Dan Mullan / AFP via Getty Images)

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
32 minutes ago
- Yahoo
De Bruyne joins Napoli: ‘King Kev is here'
Kevin De Bruyne has officially joined Napoli on a free transfer, signing a two-year contract with an option for a further campaign: 'King Kev is here.' Napoli confirmed the signing of Manchester City legend De Bruyne on Thursday with several social media posts. Official: De Bruyne joins Napoli MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – MAY 02: Kevin De Bruyne of Manchester City celebrates scoring his team's first goal during the Premier League match between Manchester City FC and Wolverhampton Wanderers FC at Etihad Stadium on May 02, 2025 in Manchester, England. (Photo by) De Bruyne's contract with the Premier League giants was due to expire at the end of the month, so KDB was available on a free transfer, except for agent fees and a signing bonus. Advertisement The Belgian star landed in Rome this morning to undergo medical tests with the defending Serie A champions. He was surrounded by several fans waiting for him at the entrance door of the clinic where De Bruyne underwent his medical tests. Napoli typically use Rome's Villa Stuart for medical examinations of their new signings. De Bruyne signed a two-year Napoli contract After passing his medical, De Bruyne headed to the Film Auro headquarters in the capital to meet with President Aurelio De Laurentiis and put pen to paper on a two-year deal. LONDON, ENGLAND – MAY 25: Kevin De Bruyne of Manchester City acknowledges the fans after his final game for the team, following the Premier League match between Fulham FC and Manchester City FC at Craven Cottage on May 25, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by) The contract includes an option to extend for a further campaign. Advertisement De Bruyne spent ten years at Manchester City, scoring 108 goals in 422 appearances across all competitions. He won several trophies under Pep Guardiola, including one Champions League and six Premier League titles.
Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
De Bruyne signs for Napoli after leaving Man City
Kevin De Bruyne left Manchester City at the end of last season (Anne-Christine POUJOULAT) Kevin De Bruyne has signed for Napoli as a free agent after being released by Manchester City, the Serie A champions' president Aurelio De Laurentiis confirmed on Thursday. Film mogul De Laurentiis posted a picture of himself shaking hands with De Bruyne on social media with the message "welcome Kevin!" Advertisement Belgium midfielder De Bruyne has reportedly signed a two-year deal with an option for a third at Napoli, where he will join up with international teammate Romelu Lukaku and former Manchester United midfielder Scott McTominay. The 33-year-old left City at the end of this past season after a trophy-packed decade in Manchester, where under Pepe Guardiola he won six Premier League titles and in 2023 the Champions League. He has however suffered from a series of physical problems in recent seasons, with two hamstring injuries causing him to miss significant chunks of the last two campaigns. Napoli have brought in one of Europe's top midfielders as the Italians try to bolster a squad which next season will defend the Scudetto while also having the extra fixture pressure of the expanded Champions League. Advertisement Antonio Conte's Napoli beat Inter Milan to the Serie A title on the final day of the season, their second league crown in three years. But they had no European football clogging up their calendar, unlike Inter who got to the Champions League final only to be thumped 5-0 by Paris Saint-Germain. td/ea
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Golazo Merchants: Brazil's Little Magician, Philippe Coutinho
As thousands of fans push themselves through turnstiles and pack into Premier League venues, it's with a sense of anticipation and the hope that the next ninety minutes deliver something unforgettable. For those of a Liverpool persuasion, the nimble feet and repertoire of tricks from Philippe Coutinho so often proved worth the admission fee alone. Advertisement In an era in which English football has become ever more cosmopolitan, Coutinho represented the best of a brilliant football nation. Brazil has a long and storied history of producing elite talents, footballers who take to the pitch and express themselves without constraints, always willing to try something out of the ordinary to gain an advantage. Coutinho's arrival into the Premier League came in the closing stages of the 2013 January transfer window, with Brendan Rodgers gambling on the young midfielder as he sought to inject some flair into a mediocre Liverpool side. Rodgers had been in charge for six months and with Liverpool languishing in seventh sanctioned deals to sign Coutinho from Inter Milan and Chelsea's Daniel Sturridge. Advertisement Coutinho had been earmarked as one of Brazil's brightest talents following his emergence at Vasco da Gama, but the inevitable move to Europe had failed to work out as hoped as he struggled to make an impression at the San Siro. There were bright moments, including a fine performance in a 4-3 win over Tottenham in the Champions League. He was loaned to Espanyol and thrived in Spain, but his return to Inter once again saw him fail to dislodge senior stars and the Nerazzurri opted to cash in when an £8.5m offer arrived from Anfield. It was a decision the Serie A side would come to regret. Despite his slight stature he soon made an impression at Liverpool, with his sublime first touch and eye for a pass seeing Coutinho form an instant understanding with Luis Suarez and fellow winter window signing Sturridge. Advertisement Operating from the left, the sight of Coutinho cutting inside and inter-linking with the front two became a familiar one as he grew in confidence in England. The 2013/14 season saw him shifted inwards as part of a midfield diamond, as Liverpool came close to ending their long wait for a Premier League title. With Steven Gerrard reinvented in a Regista role and Coutinho and Raheem Sterling buzzing behind the twin threat of Sturridge and Suarez, Liverpool scored 101 goals on their way to a runners-up finish. Embed from Getty Images Coutinho had shown flashes of his brilliance, including a winner in a pulsating clash with City at Anfield, but he was soon to take on a more prominent role. Advertisement Liverpool's title-chasing team had been rapidly dismantled in the year that followed the club's near miss. Luis Suarez departed for Barcelona in 2014, whilst the following summer saw the fading force of Steven Gerrard leave for Los Angeles and Raheem Sterling move on to Manchester City. Coutinho was now the leading light and it was a spotlight he began to revel in. He ended the 2014/15 season on the shortlist for the PFA Player of the Year award despite a return of just five goals, with his very finest being this outrageous effort against Southampton. Some footballers possess a signature strike and for Coutinho, it's this, a shift inside from the left channel and hit that seems hell-bent on finding its way into the stanchion as soon as it leaves his magical boot. Advertisement Bonus marks for the added aesthetic of the ball cannoning in off the crossbar, here. The failure to repeat the club's title challenge and a poor start to the following campaign saw Rodgers replaced at Anfield, with the Reds naming former Borussia Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp as his replacement. The infancy of Klopp's reign saw Coutinho's role questioned and debate as to whether the fleet-footed and free-spirited Brazilian would be able to adjust to his new manager's demands. Klopp's side were entertaining and expansive, whilst retaining the vulnerability that simultaneously creates excitement and denies challenges for major honours. Advertisement Coutinho continued to shine, however, adding a sprinkling of Samba to Klopp's heavy-metal football. He was instrumental in the Reds' run to the Europa League final, scoring a brilliant individual effort as Manchester United were eliminated in the first-ever European meeting between the two North-West rivals. A signature drop of the shoulder left Guillermo Varela in his wake before an audacious scooped finish from an acute angle bamboozled David de Gea and secured Liverpool's passage to the next stage. He scored 12 goals in all competitions that season with his highlight reel becoming ever more spectacular, earning a second successive club Player of the Season award before enjoying the best individual season of his career in 2016/17. Advertisement Whether used as a central number ten or drifting inside from the left he found a way to influence proceedings, with his velvet first touch and remarkable ability to chop and change direction leaving a trail of defenders in his wake. So often he would accelerate from a standing start down the left before – in the knowledge more athletic defenders were chasing him down, shifting the ball inwards with the outside of his boot, using the unbalanced momentum of the chasing challenger to free himself infield for a shooting chance. He added a derby day special to his increasing collection of fantastic finishes in April 2017, scoring the second with a stunning solo goal in a 3-1 win over Everton. It was Coutinho-esque in its entirety, the demanding of possession and a twisting and turning drive towards goal before a bending finish into the far corner. Liverpool ended the season fourth and secured a return to the Champions League, but faced a fight to keep their leading light as Barcelona made their interest public. Advertisement Despite the midfielder's desire for a move to Catalonia and a strong approach from Barcelona, the transfer window passed with Coutinho remaining on Merseyside. He had become the fulcrum of the side, the centre-piece of an improving outfit that now boasted various avenues to goal. Mohamed Salah had arrived from Roma during the summer, whilst Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino helped form a forward contingent soon christened the 'Fab Four'. Even in a season that saw Salah shatter the Premier League's goal record, the first six months of the campaign saw Coutinho retain his title as Liverpool's leading light. Advertisement He scored a fabulous free-kick in a chaotic 3-2 win at Leicester in September, a goal that encapsulated his penchant for producing something out of nothing. The following month saw him add another trademark stunner from distance at Newcastle, with the Magpies making the mistake of affording the Brazilian far too much room as he cut inside. Standing off Coutinho had become a recipe for disaster. The goals were the highlight of performances that became ever more impressive, with Coutinho appearing as if he had pillows on his feet when the ball arrived in his possession and a rocket launcher when it left. As the winter window approached, Liverpool were forced to once again bat away questions regarding Coutinho's future. The threat of Barcelona's interest had only temporarily been removed, with the Catalans again lurking as January approached. Advertisement Klopp did all he could to persuade Coutinho to remain a part of his improving side, handing the Brazilian the captain's armband as he fired home a first career hat-trick during a 7-0 thrashing of Spartak Moscow in the Champions League. He later warned Coutinho about the pitfalls of leaving Liverpool for Spanish football's superpowers, but in the end, the temptation of Barcelona proved too much and in January a £142m deal was agreed – representing a record sale for Liverpool. 'Stay here, and they will build a statue in your honour. Go somewhere else, to Barcelona, to Bayern Munich, to Real Madrid, and you will be just another player. Here you can be something more.' – Jurgen Klopp on Philippe Coutinho Coutinho began brightly in Barcelona, but his fortunes soon deteriorated as he fell out of favour. Medals have come in the form of two La Liga titles, whilst he also won a Bundesliga treble, DFB-Pokal and Champions League treble during a loan spell at Bayern Munich in 2019/20. Advertisement On each occasion, however, he has found himself on the outside looking in. An unhappy return to England at Aston Villa followed, before loan spells at Al-Duhail and Vasco de Gama as his star waned. The twinkle-toed tormentor of Premier League defences was a pale imitation after leaving Anfield. Klopp's warning had become, sadly, prophetic. At his best, 'The Little Magician' had been a joy to watch. Read – Opinion: Aston Villa an ideal place for Philippe Coutinho's restoration Read Also – All time Brazilian Premier League XI Follow The Football Faithful on Social Media: Facebook | Instagram | Twitter | YouTube | TikTok