Liverpool vs Southampton betting preview and predictions: A goal-fest, or a shut-out?

New York Times

07-03-2025

It seems counterintuitive to suggest that a title favourite like Liverpool and a relegation candidate like Southampton could produce a wager-worthy game. The Reds' odds to win the tie are a paltry 2/15, while their opponents, this weekend's underdogs, are weighing in at a staggering 20/1. Whether you risk a lot to win a little or a small return in a vain attempt to win big, it's probably best to avoid this clash and wait for more enticing odds.
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Or is it?
There is an alternative, more intriguing, rabbit hole to explore. The lopsided nature of this clash could pave the way for more enticing markets to punt on – you just need to know where to look. Below, we dissect three areas where hidden betting values may exist.
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Very few fanbases – bar Arsenal's – head into the game caring about how often the ball sits near the corner flag. They just want their side to score more goals than their opponent. But in fixtures like this, the number of corners – or lack of them in this case – might have good value.
For the Saints, the statistics paint a bleak picture. They have the league's worst expected goal differential (xGD) per 90 minutes and week on week, face a barrage of shots at their goal. And yet, Ivan Jurić's side only allow 6.22 corners per game, while the Reds have let in the third least at 4.04 per 90.
Combine those two numbers, and you'll barely squeeze it under the 10.5 corners market, which Betfair are pricing at 5/4; it might seem like limited value, but recent results make this contextually relevant.
Liverpool are still reeling from their 1-0 Champions League Round of 16 win over PSG. Their hosts suffocated Arne Slot's counter-press, racking up a eye-opening 2.58xG. Still, somehow, between an 87th-minute Harvey Elliot decider, and an insurmountable Alisson Becker between the sticks, the Parisians could not turn their hopes into reality.
The Reds' came out victorious, but the consequence of emptying the proverbial tank so early in the week could have interesting ramifications. For instance, Liverpool's usual aggressive pressing and ability to force turnovers may be blunted to conserve energy in the Saints' final third.
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It's interesting to note that even though the visitors put up a fight in a narrow 3-2 defeat against Liverpool in November, they only mustered three corners. The 13 total corners in that match were largely a result of Liverpool scrambling to secure a win against a side not yet destined for the drop. If Slot's juggernauts get a goal early on, this return match could be a passive pass-fest.
If Liverpool lack the same urgency to force the ball into the box for shots and deflections that typically lead to corner kicks, the under 10.5 corners option appears quite appealing. A relegation-bound Southampton certainly won't mind either.
In games like this, it's easy to get caught scrolling through Liverpool's anytime goalscorer odds or a lucrative team-over-total pricing. However, an often-overlooked strategy is to avoid how the favourites will hammer the back of the net and instead focus on their opponents doing the opposite. After all, who wants to wager against goals in a game between the best and worst side in the league?
Case in point: as an overarching market, the Merseysiders' chance of winning the game weighed in at 2/15. But, if you throw in a clean sheet, they increase to 11/10. Nifty.
Is this likely to pan out against the Saints given Liverpool's recent defensive problems, especially considering how vulnerable their backline looked against PSG? Well, yes, Allison had to stand on his head to secure the clean sheet, but there's one glaringly obvious difference between that showdown and this one: Southampton are not PSG.
In the three matches leading up to the game against Luis Enrique's team, Liverpool did not allow more than 0.6 expected goals (xG) in any match. In fact, they conceded only a total of 1.4 xG across those games, even when facing strong teams like Manchester City, Aston Villa, and Newcastle.
Trying to predict exactly how much an underdog will be dominated can be a tall order. Over/under bets, team goal totals or even anytime goalscorers can be a toss-up in one-sided affairs. If you are convinced the favourite will win but can't pinpoint by how much, scoring bands or correct score combinations can provide good value while giving you leeway in the outcome. Sometimes, the odds are generous enough to sprinkle a little on a few different bets.
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For instance, Liverpool to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 is priced at 13/5 on Betfair. If you're worried the Saints might knick a goal in an imbalanced loss, the 2-1, 3-1, 4-1 Liverpool win combination – rolling in at 11/4 – could also be insightful.
Those odds are good enough that you can place a wager on both lines, gain six score combinations within the projected range of outcomes and still manage a small profit. The alternative? A paltry 2/15 payout on the Liverpool moneyline – the low-value kind that bookmakers want you to bet.
(Photo credit: Dan Mullan / AFP via Getty Images)