US-made Patriot missiles have protected Kyiv. Europe doesn't have an easy replacement.

Yahoo

07-03-2025

Trump has paused US aid to Ukraine, sparking concerns for the future of US weapons there.
Ukraine is particularly worried about the Patriot systems that protect Kyiv from Russian missiles.
Europe doesn't have a direct replacement to offer, and its arsenals aren't deep.
Ukraine's US-made Patriot air defense systems have protected its capital, Kyiv, and other cities from Russian attacks.
But President Donald Trump's recent moves threaten its future in Ukraine, and Ukraine's allies in Europe have little to replace it with if they need to make up a Patriot deficit.
That puts Kyiv and its millions of residents under serious threat.
For Ukraine, the Patriot is "the most-capable, longest-range air defense system they have," Justin Bronk, a leading airpower expert at the UK's Royal United Services Institute, told Business Insider.
It's been "absolutely critical," he said, and if US aid stops, "Europe has no direct equivalent to Patriot" to give.
The MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile system, primarily manufactured by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, has taken down missiles and planes over Ukraine, and has helped keep Russia's devastating air force at bay.
Ukraine now reportedly operates six Patriot systems at undisclosed locations around the country.
Patriots have been seen as a huge success, despite Ukraine and warfare experts repeatedly stating it never got enough. Ukraine also suffered missile shortages for the systems it did receive.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukraine's president, told BI earlier this week that losing access to Patriots is a particular concern for his country.
And Europe doesn't have its own direct replacement it can offer.
Bronk said the "closest thing" is the SAMP/T, developed by France's Thales and multi-national European MBDA.
But it lacks the "absolutely critical" Patriot feature: Its ability to shoot down fast-moving ballistic missiles.
He said it "has a degree of ballistic missile capability, but it's not as capable as Patriot."
The West, generally short on air defenses, has rushed to make new systems, like the UK-designed Gravehawk. But the Gravehawk was designed for slower targets like cruise missiles, and far fewer have been made compared to Patriots.
Ukraine's booming defense industry is also making a Patriot rival, but having it operational and in big enough numbers would take years.
Ukraine had some of its own anti-ballistic missile capabilities at the start of the war, but they have run out.
George Barros, a Russia expert at the Institute for the Study of War, told BI that Ukraine has no "easy replacement system that can fill the shoes of the Patriot system, and neither do the Europeans have a commensurate system that they can deploy at scale."
That is also demonstrated by how much Europe and other US allies rely on Patriots for their own defenses.
The US, Barros said, "has a monopoly on European air defense."
Other Ukraine allies have Patriots they could give it — in fact, Ukraine has previously identified many Patriot systems it said its allies could spare.
But the US can block the sharing of US-made weapons going forward.
The missiles used by the Patriot are also made in the US, heightening that fear.
Retired Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, now a warfare strategist, told BI that Europe is building different air defense systems, but will "find it hard to plug the gap of Patriots unless they send their own Patriot systems."
For his part, Barros said Europe has to consider how many Patriots it could send without degrading its own air defenses, given other countries are increasingly afraid Russia could attack.
Ryan described Europe as already "at the limit" of how many Patriots it could send.
While Ukraine thinks its European allies can spare more, it remains to be seen how Trump's actions will shift their thinking.
Mark Cancian, a senior advisor on defense and security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI that Europe has a spectrum of equipment that could be put together to largely do the job of the Patriot — but the problem is how much equipment Europe feels it can give.
Patriot missiles have stopped Russian attacks, including ballistic missiles the Kremlin bragged were unstoppable. They also took down a Russian A-50 spy plane, something a senior US Army officer at the time called "historic."
Ukraine has received Patriot systems from the Netherlands, Germany, and the US, with the first ones arriving in 2023.
They're known to be stationed near the capital, and Barros described them as "incredibly important for protecting Ukraine's decision-making nerve center in Kyiv."
The city has been largely protected both by Ukraine's military pushing Russian forces back early in the war and its air defenses stopping Russian attacks.
Ukraine's European allies have vowed to keep supporting it, and many countries are now giving their largest-ever aid packages and pledging to make up any gaps left by the US.
But there are obstacles: Europe has manufacturing problems, and creating new pieces of weaponry takes years. In short, the will to spend is not the only issue.
Even so, Trump's moves could push the continent closer together.
Europe is already contributing more aid to Ukraine than the US — roughly $143 billion to date compared to about $124 from the US, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy — and Europe has committed billions more that's still to be allocated.
But if access to US-made Patriot air defenses becomes harder, Ukraine will likely experience a lot more pain.
Read the original article on Business Insider