Motilal Oswal sees 28% upside in Glenmark Pharma, hails $700 mln cancer drug deal as ‘new era' for innovation play
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
with a raised target price of Rs 2,430, implying a 28% upside from the current market price of Rs 1,904, as it hailed the company's recent licensing deal with AbbVie as a turning point for its innovation-led strategy.
The brokerage said the agreement—executed via Glenmark's subsidiary Ichnos Glenmark Innovation (IGI)—'validates several aspects' of the company's R&D platform and unlocks substantial commercial potential. The target price revision factors in an additional net present value (NPV) of Rs 470 per share from the deal, layered on top of 27x 12-month forward earnings from Glenmark's base business.
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'The deal validates several aspects of GNP: a) the strength of IGI's BEAT protein platform for oncology and auto-immune diseases; b) the potential of ISB-2001 to treat relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; and c) the commercial viability of ISB-2001 following successful clinical trials and subsequent commercialization,' the brokerage noted.
IGI has entered into an exclusive global licensing agreement with U.S.-based AbbVie for ISB-2001, a first-in-class trispecific T-cell engager currently undergoing Phase 1 trials. Under the agreement, IGI will receive an upfront payment of $700 million, contingent on regulatory approvals, and is eligible for up to $1.2 billion in milestone-based payouts, along with tiered, double-digit royalties on sales.
Motilal Oswal pointed out that this is one of the largest licensing transactions globally in terms of upfront payment, ranking fourth in the pharma sector. 'Oncology accounts for the majority of global licensing deals,' it said, adding that ADCs, bispecifics, and protein degraders continue to command the highest deal premiums.
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Financial re-rating backed by growth outlook
The brokerage expects Glenmark's consolidated revenue, EBITDA, and profit after tax to grow at a compound annual rate of 11%, 17%, and 20% respectively over FY25–27. These are expected to reach Rs 163 billion, Rs 33 billion, and Rs 20 billion by FY27.
'Over the past two years, GNP has: a) reduced its financial leverage; b) improved the commercial prospects of innovative R&D c) strengthened its ANDA pipeline for the US market; and d) undertaken a strategic reset in its domestic formulation business,' Motilal Oswal said.
The brokerage said it estimates a 23% earnings CAGR over the next three years, driven by 10%/7%/12%/14% growth in the domestic, US, EU, and rest-of-world segments respectively, supported by a 200-basis-point margin expansion.
Motilal Oswal called ISB-2001 'scientifically superior,' citing a higher overall response rate and complete/stringent complete response rate of 30% at active doses. The drug, which co-targets BCMA and CD38 antigens in multiple myeloma, has a favourable safety profile and aims to overcome resistance observed in BCMA-only therapies.
The brokerage sees strong commercial prospects ahead. 'Backed by its superior treatment profile and AbbVie's robust commercial strength, ISB-2001 holds strong potential to emerge as a blockbuster drug in the RRMM space,' Motilal Oswal said.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals' shares surged 20% on Friday, buoyed by investor optimism following the AbbVie licensing deal. The rally marks one of the sharpest single-day gains for the stock in recent years and comes as the market absorbs the implications of what Motilal Oswal terms 'a new era' for the company's innovation pipeline.
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Glenmark Pharma hits 10% upper circuit, scales fresh 52-week high on $700 mn cancer drug deal
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