Putin, Trump Alaska Summit: Implications for Russia-US Relations
Image: AFP
Dmitry Suslov
On Friday, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will meet in Alaska. This will be the first full-scale Russia-US summit since June 2021 in Geneva, and the first official visit by a Russian president to American soil since Dmitry Medvedev's trip in 2010 at the height of the 'reset.'
It will also be the first time the leaders of Russia and the US have met in Alaska, the closest US state to Russia, separated only by the narrow Bering Strait, and once part of the Russian Empire. The symbolism is obvious: as far as possible from Ukraine and Western Europe, but as close as possible to Russia. And neither Zelensky nor the EU's top brass will be in the room.
The message could not be clearer – Moscow and Washington will make the key decisions on Ukraine, then inform others later. As Trump has said, 'they hold all the cards.'
From Geneva to Alaska: A shift in tone
The Alaska summit marks a sharp departure from the Biden years, when even the idea of such a meeting was unthinkable and Washington's priority was isolating Russia. Now, not only will Putin travel to Alaska, but Trump is already planning a return visit to Russia.
Moderate optimism surrounds the meeting. Summits of this type are rarely held 'just to talk'; they usually cap a long process of behind-the-scenes negotiations. The idea for this one emerged after three hours of talks in Moscow on August 6 between Putin and Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov described Washington's offer as 'very acceptable.' That suggests Putin and Trump will arrive in Alaska with a preliminary deal – or at least a framework for a truce – already in place.
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Why Trump needs this
Trump has good reason to want the summit to succeed. His effort to squeeze Moscow by pushing China and India to stop buying Russian oil has backfired badly. Far from isolating Russia, it triggered the worst US-India crisis in 25 years and drove New Delhi even closer to Moscow. It also encouraged a thaw between India and China, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi now set to attend the SCO summit in Tianjin.
BRICS, which Trump has openly vowed to weaken, has only grown more cohesive. The Alaska summit is Trump's chance to escape the trap he built for himself – trying to pressure Moscow through Beijing and New Delhi – and to show results on Ukraine that he can sell as a diplomatic victory.
Why Russia does too
For Moscow, a successful summit would be a powerful demonstration that talk of 'isolation' is obsolete – even in the West. It would cement Russia's standing with the 'global majority' and highlight Western Europe's diminished influence. The transatlantic split would widen, weakening Brussels' claim to be Russia's toughest opponent.
Most importantly, Washington today has little real leverage over Russia, especially on Ukraine. If the summit yields a joint Russian–American vision for a truce or settlement, it will inevitably reflect Moscow's position more than Kiev's or Brussels'. And if the Western Europeans try to derail it, the US could pull the plug on all aid to Ukraine – including intelligence support – accelerating Kiev's defeat.
For Moscow, a successful summit would be a powerful demonstration that talk of 'isolation' is obsolete – even in the West. It would cement Russia's standing with the 'global majority' and highlight Western Europe's diminished influence, says the writer.
Image: Graphic News
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It is not because if the US invaded Canada militarily, the polite Northern neighbours would put up some resistance. Hardly. But it is more of the fact that the justification to so invade would be hard to contrive in a quick turnaround and without a plausible false flag operation. Was this a humourless quip whipped to mortify the Canadians? Sometimes it is hard to tell. In the stead of pulling out of Nato, Trump lobbied for the increase of Nato members' defence spending to 5%. Instead of negotiating with Iran, he authorised Israel to decapitate their nuclear scientists, their negotiators and obliterate all their nuclear sites. Instead of peace between Rwanda and the DRC, Nato is still arming Rwanda and the M-23 rebels continue to capture more territory. India is upset and therefore insistent that the sudden military flare-up between them and Pakistan was attenuated by a consideration other than Trump's claim, short of saying he is a liar. It is a mixed masala of foreign policy ersatz, seasoned in threats, deception and a stand-up comedy gone horribly awry. What would be easier to do is to vilify President Jimmy Carter for returning the Panama Canal to Panama in 1981. To reclaim it, the Donald issued threats of its military re-annexation. In fact, the talking heads in the Oval Office and their loquacious Commander-in-Chief simply backed the purchase of the canal by Blackrock from Li Ka-shing and claim it as a foreign policy victory. Completely without precedent, President Xi Jinping held tight, resisting the purchase with tactic and stealth, resulting in the inability of the counterparties to fulfil the conditions precedent for the purchase. As a consequence, the deadline effluxed. Just one pitiful domino after another. But fall they must. The most prominent attribute of Trump's second term is the imposition of tariffs, especially to China. 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