India's bold economic play: Adapt or lose!

IOL News

19 hours ago

Director of the National Gandhi Libray from New Delhi,India Professor Annamalai Alagan addresses guests at the 132nd anniversary of Mohandas Gandhi forcibly ejected at the Pietermaritburg railway station. New Delhi has chosen a different path: swift recalibration, strategic diversification, and an unflinching focus on long-term resilience.
Image: Rajesh Jantilal / File
IN THE grand theatre of global economics, protectionism and Trump's Economic Nationalism, which have reshaped global trade, India has once again demonstrated why it remains one of the most adaptive players in the Global South and BRICS+ nations.
The recent tariff shocks unleashed by the Trump administration, which have been boisterous, sudden, and strategically disruptive, have sent weaker economies into a spiral of retaliatory rhetoric or defensive stagnation. But India, true to form, responded with the quiet pragmatism of a nation that understands the oldest rule of economic survival: adapt or perish.
As the Greek philosopher Heraclitus once declared: 'The only constant in life is change.' India, a cornerstone of the BRICS Plus bloc, seems to have internalised this wisdom better than most. While Washington's nationalist and protectionist trade policies have forced many nations into reactive posturing, New Delhi has chosen a different path: swift recalibration, strategic diversification, and an unflinching focus on long-term resilience.
For Africa, a continent still wrestling with the ghosts of colonial era resource dependency and sluggish industrialisation, India's playbook offers not just inspiration, but an urgent blueprint.
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When the US government under Donald Trump announced aggressive tariffs on Indian exports, the immediate reaction in some quarters was one of outrage. After all, India and the US have enjoyed a steadily deepening trade relationship, with bilateral exchanges exceeding $100 billion (about R18 trillion) in recent years.
Yet, rather than succumbing to knee-jerk protectionism or hollow threats, India's policymakers went to work quietly, methodically, and with the precision of a chess grandmaster anticipating the next move.
Reports from *Economic Times* reveal that New Delhi is already crafting a multipronged response to counter stiff US tariffs through enhanced export incentives, tax rebates for manufacturers, and a renewed push to deepen trade ties with Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia while continuing trade negotiations with Washington.
This is not the behaviour of an economy caught off guard; it is the hallmark of a leadership that sees crisis as an opportunity for growth and its national interest in guarding its every move.
Compare this to the trajectory of many African economies, where trade policy often remains shackled to raw material exports and reactive rather than proactive adjustments. South Africa, once the continent's undisputed industrial powerhouse, has seen its manufacturing base erode over decades, leaving it overly reliant on mineral exports even as global demand patterns shift, while still beholden to Cold War slogans.
The lesson? Economic resilience is not about the absence of shocks, but the capacity to diversification as an end and not a means to an end.
India's agility in the face of US trade pressures is not happening in a vacuum. As a key member of BRICS+, New Delhi has not only diversified its trade partnerships but has also made strategic inroads into Africa's critical industries. Indian firms now dominate the continent's steel sector, control vast iron ore mining operations, and have positioned themselves as leading suppliers of lab-grown diamonds.
This shift has sent shockwaves through traditional diamond producers like Botswana, which failed to anticipate the global consumer shift away from organic diamonds. While Botswana struggles to adjust to the reality that 'diamonds are not forever', India's lab-grown diamond exports are booming, proving once again that foresight and adaptability define economic survival.
This is not just about circumventing tariffs; it's about rewriting the rules of engagement in a world where economic power is no longer monopolised by a handful of Western capitals. For Africa, the implications are profound.
The continent remains the world's last great frontier of consumer market growth, yet too many of its economies remain trapped in the colonial era role of raw material suppliers. If India, a fellow developing economy, can reposition itself as a global manufacturing and services hub while navigating US protectionism, why can't Africa's industrial bases do the same?
Africa's struggle with diversification is not for lack of opportunity. The African Continental Free Trade Area promises to be the world's largest single market, yet progress remains frustratingly slow.
South Africa, despite its historical industrial advantages, has seen its manufacturing sector shrink from 20% of GDP in the 1990s to just 12% today. Instead of leveraging its early lead into sustained value-added production, the economy remains tethered to mining exports, a vulnerability starkly exposed whenever commodity prices fluctuate.
India, meanwhile, has spent decades building economic shock absorbers. When the 1991 balance of payments crisis struck, it responded with sweeping reforms that unleashed its private sector. When the 2008 financial meltdown hit, it doubled down on domestic consumption. Now, faced with Trump's tariffs, it is accelerating its shift toward alternative markets and high-value exports.
The difference is not just policy, but mindset. India operates with the understanding that global economic conditions are perpetually in flux, and survival belongs to the agile. Africa, by contrast, has often treated diversification as an academic ideal rather than an immediate imperative.
The result? While India's GDP has multiplied fivefold since 2000, too many African economies remain hostage to the same commodity cycles that have dictated their fortunes for a century.
The message for Africa is clear: The time for passive reliance on raw material exports is over. India's response to US tariffs proves that economic sovereignty is not about defiance, as we have seen with Advanced Economies such as Japan and Singapore, but about diversification, options and adaptability.
If New Delhi can cultivate new trade alliances, incentivise value-added production, and navigate geopolitical headwinds without losing momentum, so too can Africa if it chooses to.
As the world moves toward multipolar trade blocs and competing spheres of influence, India's example offers a masterclass in strategic adaptation. Trump's tariffs may have been designed to force concessions, but New Delhi's response has been something far more powerful: a demonstration of resilience that Africa would do well to emulate.
In the end, Heraclitus was right: change is the only constant. But the real question is: In the Global South, who will change or perish? India, it seems, already has its answer. Africa must now find its own.
* Phapano Phasha is the chairperson of The Centre for Alternative Political and Economic Thought.
** The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Sunday Independent, IOL, or Independent Media. Get the real story on the go: Follow the Sunday Independent on WhatsApp.