logo
Asian currencies: Philippine peso and S Korean won down

Asian currencies: Philippine peso and S Korean won down

BENGALURU: Asian stocks took a breather from their rallies on Friday, with equities in Singapore snapping a 14-day winning streak, as investors expressed caution ahead of a key tariff deadline next week and central bank meetings.
Next week, the US calendar is packed with President Donald Trump's August 1 trade deadline, a Federal Reserve rate decision, the monthly jobs report and major corporate earnings all on tap. The Bank of Japan will also hold its policy meeting next Thursday.
'It looks like markets are going to take much of a breather going into the weekend and also into the next week, where there can be more trade-related updates as we build up to the 1 Aug deadline,' said analysts at Maybank.
Still, equities across the region remained on course for solid weekly gains, buoyed by improved risk sentiment and hopes of more agreements ahead of a key August 1 deadline.
Most Southeast Asian bourses rallied over the past two weeks after Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan sealed favourable trade pacts with Washington.
The MSCI Emerging Asia equities index dropped 0.7% after reaching its highest level since September 2021 on Thursday. The benchmark is still up over 3% this month and on track for a fourth consecutive month of gains.
In Kuala Lumpur, equities fell nearly 1%, paring back a rally that had lifted the index more than 10% since its April lows. Stocks in the Philippines and Indonesia
also slipped on the day, though both were set to post weekly gains of between 2% and 3%.
Regional currencies softened alongside equities, as the Philippine peso and South Korean won each dropped 0.6%, while the Malaysian ringgit and Indian rupee slipped 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.
Vietnam bucked the trend, with the benchmark index jumping 0.7% to 1,531.1 points — its highest level since January 2022.
Vietnamese equities have surged since early July, after the country struck a trade deal with Washington that cut expected tariffs to 20% from a feared 46%.
Singapore's FTSE Straits Times Index declined 0.8%, snapping a 14-session winning streak, as investors took profits following a five-week rally driven by industrials, REITs and defensives.
The city-state's central bank is set to meet next week, with economists split over whether the Monetary Authority of Singapore will ease policy or hold steady.
Analysts at Barclays expect further monetary easing across major emerging Asian central banks, though at a slower, more cautious pace, reflecting 'a greater willingness to wait and see amid the ebb and flow of US trade policy,' they wrote.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

A 100bps cut in policy rate on the cards?
A 100bps cut in policy rate on the cards?

Business Recorder

timean hour ago

  • Business Recorder

A 100bps cut in policy rate on the cards?

Following a recent visit to the Federal Reserve to inspect a renovation project, the tension between US President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was apparent. The future of Powell's position remains uncertain, as both appeared tense during their media presentation. When questioned about the Federal Reserve's renovation exceeding its budget, Trump remarked he would dismiss an employee over it but saw no need to fire the Fed Chairman. Despite a friction between them, the US dollar strengthened, buoyed by the market's confidence following Trump's assurance that Powell would not be let go. Meanwhile, June's durable goods data was disappointing due to weak orders for transportation equipment; it still exceeded expectations, contributing to Dollar's recovery. This weakness primarily stems from tariff pressures rather than other factors. Last week, both existing and new home sales figures fell short of market predictions, placing builders, buyers, and sellers under pressure in a housing market that plays a crucial role in the US economic cycle. Additionally, flash manufacturing PMI readings were weaker than anticipated. The Beige Book indicated that most Federal Reserve districts are experiencing modest growth in lending. Although there were some slight downward revisions, the overall situation remains tense due to persistent inflationary pressures and tariffs. The Federal Reserve's meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to maintain its current policy stance. It appears that the Fed may be gradually moving toward a rate-cutting cycle. Importantly, the looming August 1 deadline cannot be overlooked. Many of the analysts are predicting that the passing of tariff costs will soon impact consumers due to lag effects, potentially also affecting the labour market. However, there is a possibility for compromise between the US administration and the Federal Reserve. As the tariff situation stabilizes, Powell might hint at a data-driven rate cut in September as a conciliatory measure. As expected last week, the European Central Bank decided to keep its interest rate steady at 2%. With the pause in rate adjustments continuing, the ECB reiterated that its decisions will remain data-driven, making it clear that any future changes in interest rate policy will only be determined during meetings, without early commitments to a particular direction. This week is filled with significant economic reports from around the globe. Key US indicators to monitor include the 2nd quarter GDP, Personal Income and Spending (PCE), Non-Farm Payroll, and Consumer Confidence. In the meantime, the market is gearing up for a crucial week as six Central Banks prepare to announce their interest rate decisions. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will share its policy rate on Wednesday. Except for the SBP, all the other banks are expected to keep their rates unchanged. GOLD @ $ 3337.50— This week, market is expected to see volatility. To move higher, gold must surpass $ 3360 to reach $ 3388 or potentially more. However, if it falls below $ 3302, it could decline to $ 3258 or even $ 3226. EURO @ 1.1742— Euro has strong support at 1.1610 and is expected to remain above this level. If it breaks through 1.1820, it may make a move toward 1.1895. Or else 1.1550. GBP @ 1.3439— Pound Sterling will continue to face pressure unless it surpasses 1.3570 to reach 1.3620. The risk of decline will rise if it breaks below 1.3280. JPY @ 147.67— There may still be some losses, but the USD needs to hold 146.20 to make some recovery. If it can break above 148.90, it will pave the way for testing the 150 levels. If not, watch for a drop to 145.40. SBP meeting today Last week, there was a notable change in the Pakistani foreign exchange market, a rarity in recent times, as the Rupee strengthened against the US Dollar. On Monday, it was around 285 to 1 USD, but by Friday, the SBP closed at 283.4539. It is said that administrative measures helped PKR to gain some strength. The future trend continues to be uncertain. Analyzing the data, it appears that Pakistan's economy is on an upswing. This can be supported by various metrics, for instance, the country's debt and deficit ratios indicate a stronger economic position compared to some emerging and advanced economies. The region's challenges, however, play a significant role. For comparative purposes, consider certain European nations that may hold their credit ratings despite underlying risks. Pakistan's geographical context and lack of diversity similar to weaker European economies further differentiate its situation. Additionally, geopolitical conditions have shifted considerably. After three years of struggles, Pakistan's overall foreign exchange reserves are nearing $ 20 billion, with SBP's FX Reserves at $ 14.46 billion. The current account balance and the payments position are consistently positive, with remittances steadily increasing. The International Reserve and Foreign Currency position (Derivatives) stands at $ 2.6 billion, while the CDS has sharply fallen by over 1200 basis points. Pakistan's international Euro and Dollar bonds are recovering from previous lows, and last week's credit rating improvement by S & P to B- reaffirms the progress in the economy. Nevertheless, the primary challenge lies in sustaining and enhancing these economic gains. This can be achieved by energizing economic activity and boosting liquidity via the banking sector, significantly increasing credit availability to the private sector. However, this alone may not be enough unless the tax-to-GDP ratio needs to be raised significantly. Despite these encouraging signs and with oil prices around $ 70 per barrel, the Pakistani Rupee should not have depreciated and should have remained stable. A stable PKR will assist the administration and monetary authorities in keeping inflation low, enabling the monetary policy committee to potentially lower the policy rate in alignment with inflation trends. Given these considerations, policymakers on Monday July 28, might think about reducing the interest rates by nearly 100 basis points. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

Latam FX lower, stocks mixed as caution prevails ahead of US tariff deadline
Latam FX lower, stocks mixed as caution prevails ahead of US tariff deadline

Business Recorder

timean hour ago

  • Business Recorder

Latam FX lower, stocks mixed as caution prevails ahead of US tariff deadline

BRASILIA: Most Latin American currencies were dented by a stronger dollar on Friday, and stocks declined, as investors grew risk-averse ahead of the US tariff deadline and a slew of monetary policy decisions next week. US President Donald Trump said there was a '50-50' chance of a trade deal with the European Union, though European diplomats said a framework deal could happen this weekend. He also hinted that the Federal Reserve may be ready to cut interest rates, amid repeated calls and persistent criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The central bank meets next week. On the day, the uncertainty pushed the dollar index up 0.3%, pressuring most Latam currencies. MSCI's index tracking these currencies was down 0.2%, but set for its second week of gains. Currencies in Chile and Colombia were the worst hit, down 0.8% and 0.7% against the dollar. Declining copper prices added to declines in the Chilean peso. Brazil's real fell 0.3%. Domestic inflation remained well above the central bank's target range in mid-July, data showed. The reading comes ahead of the central bank's meeting next week, where it is widely expected to hold interest rates at a two-decade high, in a pause to its tightening cycle, where the Selic rate was raised by a cumulative 450 basis points since August. This week, markets took on more risk after the US signed a trade deal with Japan and signaled that more agreements were in the works, reviving some hopes that the worst tariff impacts could be avoided. 'Markets got excited with the Japanese trade deal because the outcome was slightly better than expected and there was some read through to what that could mean for trade negotiations with Europe,' said Christine Reed, EM portfolio manager at Ninety-One. 'Now people are taking chips off the table ahead of some new tariff negotiations, concerned that this could increase volatility in the market.' In Argentina, the peso was flat while stocks jumped 2.3%. Dollar bonds in the country were broadly higher after the International Monetary Fund reached a staff-level agreement on the first review of its extended fund facility with the government, potentially unlocking about.

Fed poised to hold off on rate cuts, defying Trump pressure
Fed poised to hold off on rate cuts, defying Trump pressure

Business Recorder

timean hour ago

  • Business Recorder

Fed poised to hold off on rate cuts, defying Trump pressure

WASHINGTON: The US central bank is widely expected to hold off slashing interest rates again at its upcoming meeting, as officials gather under the cloud of an intensifying pressure campaign by President Donald Trump. Policymakers at the independent Federal Reserve have kept the benchmark lending rate steady since the start of the year as they monitor how Trump's sweeping tariffs are impacting the world's biggest economy. With Trump's on-again, off-again tariff approach — and the levies' lagged effects on inflation — Fed officials want to see economic data from this summer to gauge how prices are being affected. When mulling changes to interest rates, the central bank — which meets on Tuesday and Wednesday — seeks a balance between reining in inflation and the health of the jobs market. But the bank's data-dependent approach has enraged the Republican president, who has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not slashing rates further, calling him a 'numbskull' and 'moron.' Most recently, Trump signaled he could use the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project as an avenue to oust Powell, before backing off and saying that would be unlikely. Trump visited the Fed construction site on Thursday, making a tense appearance with Powell in which the Fed chair disputed Trump's characterization of the total cost of the refurbishment in front of the cameras. But economists expect the Fed to look past the political pressure at its policy meeting. 'We're just now beginning to see the evidence of tariffs' impact on inflation,' said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. 'We're going to see it (too) in July and August, and we think that's going to give the Fed reason to remain on the sidelines,' he told AFP. Since returning to the presidency in January, Trump has imposed a 10 percent tariff on goods from almost all countries, as well as steeper rates on steel, aluminum and autos. The effect on inflation has so far been limited, prompting the US leader to use this as grounds for calling for interest rates to be lowered by three percentage points. Currently, the benchmark lending rate stands at a range between 4.25 percent and 4.50 percent. Trump also argues that lower rates would save the government money on interest payments, and floated the idea of firing Powell. The comments roiled financial markets. 'Powell can see that the administration floated this trial balloon' of ousting him before walking it back on the market's reaction, Sweet said. 'It showed that markets value an independent central bank,' the Oxford Economics analyst added, anticipating Powell will be instead more influenced by labor market concerns. Powell's term as Fed chair ends in May 2026. Analysts expect to see a couple of members break ranks if the Fed's rate-setting committee decides for a fifth straight meeting to keep interest rates unchanged. Sweet cautioned that some observers may spin dissents as pushback on Powell but argued this is not necessarily the case. 'It's not out-of-line or unusual to see, at times when there's a high degree of uncertainty, or maybe a turning point in policy, that you get one or two people dissenting,' said Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman have both signaled openness to rate cuts as early as July, meaning their disagreement with a decision to hold rates steady would not surprise markets.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store