
The reasons why experts are predicting a further plunge in migration
The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) expects net migration to halve again to 200,000 in the next year due to a weakening job market.
MAC chairman Professor Brian Bell attributes the fall to a decline in non-EU workers and students, and anticipates a further drop in work visas.
ONS data indicates a decrease in available jobs and a rise in unemployment, suggesting firms are hesitant to recruit.
MAC says that changes in Labour 's immigration policies, including raising the skills threshold for work visas, will likely impact the hospitality and retail sectors, while a ban on care workers bringing family members into the country is reducing health and care worker visas.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Times
19 minutes ago
- Times
Inheritance tax raid would hurt young families, Reeves warned
Going after family gifts in an inheritance tax grab risks cutting struggling young families off from vital support, the chancellor has been told. The typical pensioner gives 10 per cent of their income — an average of almost £2,500 — away to family each year, about £1,320 directly and £1,175 towards education. The research from the wealth manager Quilter and the Centre for Economics and Business Research, a consultancy, shows the impact that a cap on tax-free gifts could have on younger generations. It comes amid reports that the measure is among those being considered by Rachel Reeves as she tries to plug a gap in the nation's finances. Rachael Griffin from Quilter said: 'There's a strong economic case for supporting the transfer of wealth between generations. Younger people face significant financial pressures, from high housing costs to childcare and limited pension savings, while older generations often hold substantial assets. Sensible rules help to unlock this capital at the right time.' The seven-year rule, which allows you to give away as many assets and as much cash as you want in your lifetime without it later being subject to inheritance tax, is said to be in the chancellor's sights. As long as you live for at least seven years after making a gift, it will not be taxed. Reeves is also said to be looking at a lifetime cap on the amount you can give away, although no details of how this would work have been released. Griffin said that instead of tightening the rules on gifting, the chancellor should actually make the system more generous, raising the £3,000 annual gifting exemption, which has not changed for more than 40 years, to a more realistic £9,000. You can give a total of £3,000 each year, to one person or divided among recipients, and as many gifts of £250 or less as you like, as long as you haven't already gifted to them from the £3,000. There are also allowances for wedding gifts. • Should there be a cap on inheritance tax-free gifts? Gary Smith from the wealth manager Evelyn Partners said: 'The patchwork of gifting rules is quite complicated and outdated, and there was some expectation before the last budget that there could be a crackdown on gifting under the auspices of simplification. 'The annual gifting limits, which allow smaller gifts that will never be subject to inheritance tax, are very modest, having been frozen for more than four decades, so they no longer afford much protection.' Quilter's research among more than 5,000 retired people, found that they had average outgoings of £22,140 a year — nearly £10,000 less than the income level that the industry body Pensions UK estimates is needed to provide a moderate standard of living in retirement. Some 18 per cent of those questioned said they were 'very concerned' about being able to maintain their standard of living, with anxiety highest among those under 65. • Ben Wilkinson: This tax policy chaos does not bode well The Centre for Economics and Business Research also found that the state pension made up half the income for those aged over 80. Median household income among the respondents was £35,000, but with sharp regional divides: in Wales, two-fifths had less than £30,000, while the London average was above £58,000. Steven Levin, Quilter's chief executive, said: 'These people aren't just budgeting for themselves; they're quietly propping up the next generation too. With nearly £2,500 a year being gifted to family and education, it's clear that many are playing a bigger economic role than they are often given credit for.'

South Wales Argus
21 minutes ago
- South Wales Argus
Wales ranks 11th for overseas trade figures reveal
Research by business credit cards looked at the exporting regions which could be hit hardest by President Trumps tariffs as it is reported that British exports to the US fall by almost a sixth (13.5 per cent). The figures from business credit cards come after ONS data was analysed. London was top of the table with 78,300 businesses which are exporters (16.5 per cent). Wales came 11th with 5,600 exporting businesses (5.2 per cent). Joe Phelan, business credit cards expert, said: "Global trade is constantly evolving, with new challenges and opportunities emerging all the time. For exporters, the key to success lies in staying flexible and adaptable, whether that means exploring new markets, diversifying product lines, or adjusting supply chains. "However, exporting introduces a unique set of financial pressures, from delayed payments due to lengthy shipping timelines to costs like duties, tariffs, and currency fluctuations. "For SMEs navigating international trade, managing cash flow becomes more complex and crucial. That's why having the right financial tools, like business credit cards, can provide the agility and resilience companies need to navigate uncertainty and continue growing."


BBC News
22 minutes ago
- BBC News
Dozens more Afghan relocation data breaches uncovered by BBC
The Ministry of Defence has admitted there have been 49 separate data breaches in the past four years at the unit handling relocation applications from Afghans seeking safety in the out of the 49 breaches were already publicly known - including the leak in 2022 of a spreadsheet containing details of almost 19,000 people fleeing the mammoth data breach, which led to thousands of Afghans being secretly relocated to the UK, was only revealed last month after the High Court lifted a gagging was described by the UK's information watchdog as a "one-off occurrence following a failure to [follow] usual checks, rather than reflecting a wider culture of non-compliance". However, lawyers representing Afghans affected by data breaches said the new figures, released to the BBC under the Freedom of Information Act, raised concerns about a culture of lax security among those working on the resettlement MoD has refused to provide any details of the nature of each breach but incidents which have previously been made public include officials inadvertently revealing the email addresses or other personal details of applicants to third Malik, Head of Data Protection at Barings Law which represents hundreds of Afghans affected by the biggest of the breaches in February 2022, said: "What began as an isolated incident, which the Ministry of Defence initially sought to keep from public view, has now escalated into a series of catastrophic failings."We urge the Ministry of Defence to be fully transparent with both those affected and the wider public. Victims should not be forced to learn the truth through legal action or news reports."The Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy (ARAP) was set up in April 2021 to help people who feared their lives were at risk because they had worked with British armed forces in Afghanistan and to resettle eligible applicants and their family members in the UK. It was closed in July this scheme has been dogged by revelations about poor data security, potentially putting the lives of Afghans who worked with British forces at risk. In September 2021, BBC News revealed that more than 250 Afghans seeking relocation to the UK were mistakenly copied into an email from the Ministry of Defence, putting them at risk of reprisals.A total of 265 email addresses were shared in this way across three separate incidents that month, which ultimately led to a £350,000 fine from the breaches were "intensely difficult and embarrassing for the government handling publicly", one defence source Wallace, the then-defence secretary, expressed his personal anger at what had occurred, telling MPs: "I am very keen that it is not just the poor person who drafts the email who is held to account, but the chain upwards, to ensure that this does not happen again."Two months after the incidents, in November 2021, the then Conservative government announced "significant remedial actions", including new data handling procedures and training as well as a new "two pairs of eyes rule" requiring any external email to an ARAP-eligible Afghan national be reviewed by a second member of staff before being government said the measures were taken to "prevent such incidents occurring again".Instead, data breaches continued including, in February 2022, a potentially catastrophic leak which saw a soldier at Regent's Park barracks send a spreadsheet with what they believed to be a small number of applicants' names to trusted Afghan did not realise that hidden data in the spreadsheet in fact contained the names, contact details and some information about family members and associates for nearly 19,000 the leak was discovered some 18 months later, in August 2023, the then-Conservative government sought a gagging order to prevent details of the error being made public. The government successfully argued that lives were at risk and the Taliban would be alerted if an injunction wasn't super injunction which was imposed was not lifted until July this Baines, a senior data protection specialist at the law firm Mishcon de Reya, said the new figures uncovered by the BBC show a "remarkable number of data security incidents in relation to the ARAP scheme"."It is difficult to think of any information more sensitive than that which is involved with the scheme, and it baffles me why there were not better security measures in place," he added. Seven of the 49 data breaches were sufficiently serious to require MoD officials to notify data watchdog the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO).This includes three breaches - one in 2021, and two in 2022 - that have not been made public ICO said it was limited in the amount of information it still held on those breaches and why it didn't take further action but that its work with the MoD was "ongoing"."We continue to engage with the MoD, so we can be assured that they have made the required improvements," a spokeswoman watchdog has not taken any action against the MoD over the large spreadsheet data breach which was previously subject to court-imposed reporting restrictions, arguing "there was little we could add in this case that would justify the further allocation of resource away from other priorities".Jon Baines said there were "serious questions firstly as to whether the ICO should have conducted more in-depth investigations previously, and secondly, whether there is now an urgent need for more investigation."What assurance can we all have now that the MoD are properly protecting the highly sensitive personal data it is often entrusted with?", he added.A Labour government source blamed previous Conservative administrations for inadequate data protection measures and said new software has been introduced and other changes made since Labour came to power last year."Current ministers repeatedly highlighted the Tory mismanagement of data around the ARAP scheme while in opposition," the source said."Since last July, we've brought in a host of new measures to improve data security and we've made public the largest Afghan data breach which occurred under the previous government, to allow for parliamentary scrutiny and accountability."A Conservative Party spokesman said: "This data leak should never have happened and was an unacceptable breach of data protection secretary of state for defence has issued an apology on behalf of the government, and Conservatives joined in that apology."When this breach came to light, the immediate priority of the then-government was to protect persons in the dataset."An MoD spokesperson said: "We take data security extremely seriously and are committed to ensuring that any incidents are dealt with properly, and that we follow our legal duties."All incidents that meet the threshold under UK data protection laws are referred to the Information Commissioner's Office, and any lesser incidents are examined internally to ensure lessons are learned."If you have any information on stories you would like to share with the BBC Politics Investigations team, please get in touch at politicsinvestigations@ Sign up for our Politics Essential newsletter to keep up with the inner workings of Westminster and beyond.