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Pablo Rodriguez can't treat anglos ‘as the party wallet'
Pablo Rodriguez is the new leader of the Quebec Liberal Party, but is he the right man for the job?
As pointed out by The Gazette's Philip Authier, Rodriguez 'has his work cut out for him.'
Political strategist Jennifer Crane, founder of Connexion Quebec Public Affairs, and political analyst Raphaël Melançon, founder of Trafalgar Stratégies, join hosts Bill Brownstein and Aaron Rand on this week's episode of The Corner Booth at Snowdon Deli to break down Rodriguez's closer-than-expected leadership win, and whether he can bring Quebecers back to the party in time for the 2026 election.
'I was surprised he didn't win as solidly as he thought he was going to win,' Crane said. 'Most people I know who are anglos voted for (second-place finisher) Charles Milliard.'
A new Pallas Data poll shows the provincial Liberals sit in second place under their new leader, only five points back of the Parti Québécois. With Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's party ahead and François Legault's CAQ a distant third, Melançon says sovereignty is back on the table, meaning Rodriguez can position the Liberals as a refuge for voters who don't want a referendum.
But Rodriguez will have to make inroads in the regions of Quebec, where his resumé as a Montreal-area federal cabinet minister under Justin Trudeau could complicate matters.
'He is an easy target to attack. He's an easy target for the PQ,' Melançon said.
'One thing I hope he doesn't import from the federal Liberals is to treat the English-speaking community as the party wallet,' Crane said. 'And then we're expected to turn around and say 'oh, we didn't notice you're putting a knife in our back.''
In the episode, they also discussed Marwah Rizqy leading the Liberals in the legislature, as well as this fall's municipal election, which will see a new mayor get elected with Valérie Plante choosing to not run again. Projet Montréal's Luc Rabouin and Ensemble Montréal's Soraya Martinez Ferrada are in the running, but could we see a last-minute candidate emerge?
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Montreal Gazette
10 hours ago
- Montreal Gazette
Libman: Is another gut-wrenching Quebec sovereignty referendum on tap?
On top of everything else that's going on in this world right now, will we soon have to start bracing for another gut-wrenching Quebec sovereignty referendum? The next provincial election is still over a year away, but this week's convincing byelection win by the Parti Québécois in Arthabaska is another indication that the separatist party is cementing itself as the prevailing choice of Quebecers and heavy favourite to form the next government. By contrast, the Coalition Avenir Québec, which had owned this riding in every election since the party's creation in 2011, was badly humbled, finishing a distant fourth. It will be difficult for the bruised and battered governing party to reverse its fortunes before the next election, with no heir apparent to its leader and founder, François Legault, who will inevitably be stepping down. The Liberals have made their bed with Pablo Rodriguez, with whom they improved their vote in the almost exclusively francophone riding but still garnered only single-digit support. With Rodriguez, their chances of winning the general election, which is highly contingent on the regions, is a long shot at this point. A year in politics is a long time, but with the challenges facing its two main rivals, the PQ looks like a pretty sure bet right now. (Sigh!) So, then what? Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has steadfastly maintained a hardline position since assuming the PQ leadership, promising a sovereignty referendum in his first mandate. He needed to consolidate the party's base after devastating losses in the last two elections and hasn't wavered since. Now that the scent of power is getting stronger, some suspect he may try to downplay that commitment, which many previous PQ leaders have done before elections, to avoid scaring off less-nationalist voters. I don't expect PSPP to back down. He knows that his opponents will attack his referendum pledge and are waiting to cynically pounce, as is the media, if he shows the slightest hint of backtracking. His winning mantra during the campaign will be that a referendum allows Quebecers themselves to democratically decide their future, not him. Once in power, then, is a third sovereignty referendum before the end of the decade winnable? For the longest time, support for sovereignty had been stagnating in the low 30 per cent range, particularly weakened by U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs and annexation. But a couple of recent polls showed a noticeable bump, increasingly among young people, with the overall support in the population hovering around 40 per cent — still comparable to the 1980 referendum result. Referendum campaigns, however, can be volatile, presenting an opportunity to stoke Quebec nationalist pride. It will also be relatively easy for an articulate leader like PSPP — especially when times are tough — to resonate, with magical promises about the cure-all of an independent Quebec, primarily among young people. Also, who would lead the No side this time? For the 1995 referendum, the result was shockingly close, with the federalist leadership — like it is now — fragmented and unprepared. Will Legault's successor be from the federalist flank of the party — or the more nationalist wing, thus putting up only a half-hearted defence of Canada? Will the party split entirely along Yes/No lines? Does Rodriguez have the chops of a young and fiery (circa 1995) Jean Charest, for example, who electrified the pro-Canada rally, waving his Canadian passport? Will Prime Minister Mark Carney play more of an effective role than Jean Chrétien did in 1995, when he seemed to be begging on his knees at the last minute? And what about Trump? Will he meddle, offering to recognize and negotiate with an independent Quebec, seeing separation as a means to severely weaken Canada, thus benefiting his 51st-state narrative — stalking the remnants of a fractured country? Many things can change, but current indicators are reason for concern. We need to be much better prepared this time in girding for the unpleasant battle ahead. Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee. He was a Conservative candidate in the 2015 federal election.
CBC
11 hours ago
- CBC
Can the ZEV mandate survive political pressure and industry objections?
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On Thursday, Poilievre announced that Conservatives would be launching a " nationwide campaign" to stop the mandate. The Conservative leader is smart enough to know he is pushing against a policy that is already under pressure. But that may set up the ZEV mandate as a test of the ability of Mark Carney's government to defend and meaningfully advance climate policy — a test Justin Trudeau's government arguably failed on the carbon tax. Whether or not the Charter can be read to give Canadians the "right" to own an internal-combustion engine, it's not quite the case that gas-powered vehicles will be made illegal. More specifically, the ZEV mandate establishes a series of escalating light-duty vehicle sales targets for auto manufacturers and importers, starting at 20 per cent in 2026 and reaching 100 per cent in 2035. Companies have some flexibility if they are unable or unwilling to meet the annual target — they can buy credits from other sellers or invest in charging infrastructure. 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Winnipeg Free Press
14 hours ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
100 days of Pope Leo XIV: a calm papacy that avoids polemics is coming into focus
VATICAN CITY (AP) — When Pope Leo XIV surprised tens of thousands of young people at a recent Holy Year celebration with an impromptu popemobile romp around St. Peter's Square, it almost seemed as if some of the informal spontaneity that characterized Pope Francis' 12-year papacy had returned to the Vatican. But the message Leo delivered that night was all his own: In seamless English, Spanish and Italian, Leo told the young people that they were the 'salt of the Earth, the light of the world.' He urged them to spread their hope, faith in Christ and their cries of peace wherever they go. As Robert Prevost marks his 100th day as Pope Leo this weekend, the contours of his pontificate have begun to come into relief, primarily where he shows continuity with Francis and where he signals change. Perhaps the biggest takeaway is that after 12 sometimes turbulent years under Francis, a certain calm and reserve have returned to the papacy. Leo seems eager above all to avoid polemics or making the papacy about himself, and wants instead to focus on Christ and peace. That seems exactly what many Catholic faithful want, and may respond to what today's church needs. 'He's been very direct and forthright … but he's not doing spontaneous press hits,' said Kevin Hughes, chair of theology and religious studies at Leo's alma mater, Villanova University. Leo has a different style than Francis, and that has brought relief to many, Hughes said in a telephone interview. 'Even those who really loved Pope Francis always kind of held their breath a little bit: You didn't know what was going to come out next or what he was going to do,' Hughes said. An effort to avoid polemics Leo has certainly gone out of his way in his first 100 days to try to heal divisions that deepened during Francis' pontificate, offering messages of unity and avoiding controversy at almost every turn. Even his signature issue — confronting the promise and peril posed by artificial intelligence — is something that conservatives and progressives alike agree is important. Francis' emphasis on caring for the environment and migrants often alienated conservatives. Closer to home, Leo offered the Holy See bureaucracy a reassuring, conciliatory message after Francis' occasionally authoritarian style rubbed some in the Vatican the wrong way. 'Popes come and go, but the Curia remains,' Leo told Vatican officials soon after his May 8 election. Continuity with Francis is still undeniable Leo, though, has cemented Francis' environmental legacy by celebrating the first-ever ecologically inspired Mass. He has furthered that legacy by giving the go-ahead for the Vatican to turn a 430-hectare (1,000-acre) field north of Rome into a vast solar farm that should generate enough electricity to meet Vatican City's needs and turn it into the world's first carbon-neutral state. He has fine-tuned financial transparency regulations that Francis initiated, tweaked some other decrees to give them consistency and logic, and confirmed Francis in deciding to declare one of the 19th century's most influential saints, John Henry Newman, a 'doctor' of the church. But he hasn't granted any sit-down, tell-all interviews or made headline-grabbing, off-the-cuff comments like his predecessor did. He hasn't made any major appointments, including to fill his old job, or taken any big trips. In marking the 80th anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombings on Hiroshima and Nagasaki last week, he had a chance to match Francis' novel declaration that the mere possession of nuclear weapons was 'immoral.' But he didn't. Compared to President Donald Trump, the other American world leader who took office in 2025 with a flurry of Sharpie-penned executive decrees, Leo has eased into his new job slowly, deliberately and quietly, almost trying not to draw attention to himself. At 69, he seems to know that he has time on his side, and that after Francis' revolutionary papacy, the church might need a bit of a breather. One Vatican official who knows Leo said he expects his papacy will have the effect of a 'calming rain' on the church. Maria Isabel Ibarcena Cuarite, a Peruvian member of a Catholic charismatic group, said it was precisely Leo's quiet emphasis on church traditions, its sacraments and love of Christ, that drew her and upward of 1 million young people to Rome for a special Jubilee week this month. Ibarcena said Francis had confused young people like herself with his outreach to LGBTQ+ Catholics and approval of blessings for same-sex couples. Such gestures went beyond what a pope was supposed to do and what the church taught, she thought. Leo, she said, has emphasized that marriage is a sacrament between men and woman. 'Francis was ambiguous, but he is firm,' she said. An Augustinian pope From his very first appearance on the loggia of St. Peter's Basilica, Leo has insisted he is first and foremost a 'son of St. Augustine. ' It was a reference to the fifth century theological and devotional giant of early Christianity, St. Augustine of Hippo, who inspired the 13th century religious Augustinian order as a community of 'mendicant' friars. Like the other big mendicant orders of the early church — the Franciscans, Dominicans and Carmelites — the Augustinians spread across Christian Europe over the centuries. Today, Augustinian spirituality is rooted in a deep interior life of prayer, living in community, and journeying together in search of truth in God. In nearly every speech or homily since his May 8 election, Leo has cited Augustine in one way or another. 'I see a kind of Augustinian flavor in the way that he's presenting all these things,' said Hughes, the theology professor who is an Augustine scholar. Leo joined the Augustinians after graduating from Augustinian-run Villanova, outside Philadelphia, and was twice elected its prior general. He has visited the Augustinian headquarters outside St. Peter's a few times since his election, and some wonder if he will invite some brothers to live with him in the Apostolic Palace to recreate the spirit of Augustinian community life there. A missionary pope in the image of Francis Leo is also very much a product of the Francis papacy. Francis named Prevost bishop of Chiclayo, Peru, in 2014 and then moved him to head one of the most important Vatican jobs in 2023 — vetting bishop nominations. In retrospect, it seems Francis had his eye on Prevost as a possible successor. Given Francis' stump speech before the 2013 conclave that elected him pope, the then-Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio essentially described Prevost in identifying the church's mission today: He said the church was 'called to go outside of itself and go to the peripheries, not just geographic but also the existential peripheries.' Prevost, who hails from Chicago, spent his adult life as a missionary in Peru, eventually becoming bishop of Chiclayo. 'He is the incarnation of the 'unity of difference,' because he comes from the center, but he lives in the peripheries,' said Emilce Cuda, secretary of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America. Cuda said during a recent conference hosted by Georgetown University that Leo encapsulated in 'word and gesture' the type of missionary church Francis promoted. That said, for all Leo owes to Bergoglio, the two didn't necessarily get along. Prevost has recounted that at one point when he was the Augustinian superior, the then-archbishop of Buenos Aires expressed interest in assigning an Augustinian priest to a specific job in his archdiocese. Sundays Kevin Rollason's Sunday newsletter honouring and remembering lives well-lived in Manitoba. 'And I, as prior general, said 'I understand, Your Eminence, but he's got to do something else' and so I transferred him somewhere else,' Prevost told parishioners in his home state of Illinois in 2024. Prevost said he 'naively' thought the Francis wouldn't remember him after his 2013 election, and that regardless 'he'll never appoint me bishop' due to the disagreement. Bergoglio not only made him bishop, he laid the groundwork for Prevost to succeed him as pope, the first North American pope following the first South American. ___ Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP's collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. 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