Libman: Is another gut-wrenching Quebec sovereignty referendum on tap?
The next provincial election is still over a year away, but this week's convincing byelection win by the Parti Québécois in Arthabaska is another indication that the separatist party is cementing itself as the prevailing choice of Quebecers and heavy favourite to form the next government.
By contrast, the Coalition Avenir Québec, which had owned this riding in every election since the party's creation in 2011, was badly humbled, finishing a distant fourth. It will be difficult for the bruised and battered governing party to reverse its fortunes before the next election, with no heir apparent to its leader and founder, François Legault, who will inevitably be stepping down.
The Liberals have made their bed with Pablo Rodriguez, with whom they improved their vote in the almost exclusively francophone riding but still garnered only single-digit support. With Rodriguez, their chances of winning the general election, which is highly contingent on the regions, is a long shot at this point.
A year in politics is a long time, but with the challenges facing its two main rivals, the PQ looks like a pretty sure bet right now. (Sigh!)
So, then what?
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has steadfastly maintained a hardline position since assuming the PQ leadership, promising a sovereignty referendum in his first mandate. He needed to consolidate the party's base after devastating losses in the last two elections and hasn't wavered since. Now that the scent of power is getting stronger, some suspect he may try to downplay that commitment, which many previous PQ leaders have done before elections, to avoid scaring off less-nationalist voters.
I don't expect PSPP to back down. He knows that his opponents will attack his referendum pledge and are waiting to cynically pounce, as is the media, if he shows the slightest hint of backtracking. His winning mantra during the campaign will be that a referendum allows Quebecers themselves to democratically decide their future, not him.
Once in power, then, is a third sovereignty referendum before the end of the decade winnable?
For the longest time, support for sovereignty had been stagnating in the low 30 per cent range, particularly weakened by U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs and annexation. But a couple of recent polls showed a noticeable bump, increasingly among young people, with the overall support in the population hovering around 40 per cent — still comparable to the 1980 referendum result.
Referendum campaigns, however, can be volatile, presenting an opportunity to stoke Quebec nationalist pride. It will also be relatively easy for an articulate leader like PSPP — especially when times are tough — to resonate, with magical promises about the cure-all of an independent Quebec, primarily among young people.
Also, who would lead the No side this time? For the 1995 referendum, the result was shockingly close, with the federalist leadership — like it is now — fragmented and unprepared.
Will Legault's successor be from the federalist flank of the party — or the more nationalist wing, thus putting up only a half-hearted defence of Canada?
Will the party split entirely along Yes/No lines?
Does Rodriguez have the chops of a young and fiery (circa 1995) Jean Charest, for example, who electrified the pro-Canada rally, waving his Canadian passport?
Will Prime Minister Mark Carney play more of an effective role than Jean Chrétien did in 1995, when he seemed to be begging on his knees at the last minute?
And what about Trump? Will he meddle, offering to recognize and negotiate with an independent Quebec, seeing separation as a means to severely weaken Canada, thus benefiting his 51st-state narrative — stalking the remnants of a fractured country?
Many things can change, but current indicators are reason for concern. We need to be much better prepared this time in girding for the unpleasant battle ahead.
Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee. He was a Conservative candidate in the 2015 federal election.
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Montreal Gazette
2 days ago
- Montreal Gazette
Libman: Is another gut-wrenching Quebec sovereignty referendum on tap?
On top of everything else that's going on in this world right now, will we soon have to start bracing for another gut-wrenching Quebec sovereignty referendum? The next provincial election is still over a year away, but this week's convincing byelection win by the Parti Québécois in Arthabaska is another indication that the separatist party is cementing itself as the prevailing choice of Quebecers and heavy favourite to form the next government. By contrast, the Coalition Avenir Québec, which had owned this riding in every election since the party's creation in 2011, was badly humbled, finishing a distant fourth. It will be difficult for the bruised and battered governing party to reverse its fortunes before the next election, with no heir apparent to its leader and founder, François Legault, who will inevitably be stepping down. The Liberals have made their bed with Pablo Rodriguez, with whom they improved their vote in the almost exclusively francophone riding but still garnered only single-digit support. With Rodriguez, their chances of winning the general election, which is highly contingent on the regions, is a long shot at this point. A year in politics is a long time, but with the challenges facing its two main rivals, the PQ looks like a pretty sure bet right now. (Sigh!) So, then what? Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has steadfastly maintained a hardline position since assuming the PQ leadership, promising a sovereignty referendum in his first mandate. He needed to consolidate the party's base after devastating losses in the last two elections and hasn't wavered since. Now that the scent of power is getting stronger, some suspect he may try to downplay that commitment, which many previous PQ leaders have done before elections, to avoid scaring off less-nationalist voters. I don't expect PSPP to back down. He knows that his opponents will attack his referendum pledge and are waiting to cynically pounce, as is the media, if he shows the slightest hint of backtracking. His winning mantra during the campaign will be that a referendum allows Quebecers themselves to democratically decide their future, not him. Once in power, then, is a third sovereignty referendum before the end of the decade winnable? For the longest time, support for sovereignty had been stagnating in the low 30 per cent range, particularly weakened by U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs and annexation. But a couple of recent polls showed a noticeable bump, increasingly among young people, with the overall support in the population hovering around 40 per cent — still comparable to the 1980 referendum result. Referendum campaigns, however, can be volatile, presenting an opportunity to stoke Quebec nationalist pride. It will also be relatively easy for an articulate leader like PSPP — especially when times are tough — to resonate, with magical promises about the cure-all of an independent Quebec, primarily among young people. Also, who would lead the No side this time? For the 1995 referendum, the result was shockingly close, with the federalist leadership — like it is now — fragmented and unprepared. Will Legault's successor be from the federalist flank of the party — or the more nationalist wing, thus putting up only a half-hearted defence of Canada? Will the party split entirely along Yes/No lines? Does Rodriguez have the chops of a young and fiery (circa 1995) Jean Charest, for example, who electrified the pro-Canada rally, waving his Canadian passport? Will Prime Minister Mark Carney play more of an effective role than Jean Chrétien did in 1995, when he seemed to be begging on his knees at the last minute? And what about Trump? Will he meddle, offering to recognize and negotiate with an independent Quebec, seeing separation as a means to severely weaken Canada, thus benefiting his 51st-state narrative — stalking the remnants of a fractured country? Many things can change, but current indicators are reason for concern. We need to be much better prepared this time in girding for the unpleasant battle ahead. Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee. He was a Conservative candidate in the 2015 federal election.
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SAAQclic scandal: Quebec ministers — and maybe Legault — may testify in pivotal month for CAQ
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