Moldova is the next front in Russia's assault on the West
Putin can accomplish his security objectives here not through open conflict but by fuelling separatist movements and influence operations. On Monday, Russia's foreign intelligence agency accused Nato of making Moldova a 'forward base' and of 'preparing to draw Moldova into ... armed conflict with Russia.'
Russian media, meanwhile, spreads outlandish claims that Moldova is riddled with Western intelligence services and that 'MI6 is taking control of the Moldovan elections.' Moscow has also claimed Moldovan intelligence is cooperating with Ukraine to sabotage Russia.
According to this idea, the West is using Moldova as a weapon against Russia, escalating tensions there and driving the country towards the same fate as Ukraine. In psychology, this is called projection. It is Russia that is propagating chaos in Moldova's upcoming elections. Russia wants to show that the West, particularly Europe, will not respond out of fear of escalations and will not support Moldova's turn towards Europe.
Moldova, a small country in Europe that was once a Soviet Republic, has been subject to severe Russian pressure before. Russian 'peacekeepers' are located in Transnistria, an internationally unrecognised, pro-Russian breakaway region. Beyond blunt military force, Russia has a variety of other means to influence Moldovan politics.
During the 2024 presidential election campaign, Ilan Shor, a pro-Kremlin Moldovan oligarch, allegedly organised a $39 million vote-buying scheme through which over 138,000 Moldovans reportedly received money.
More subtly, Russia can take advantage of the fact that Moldova is home to a large Russian-speaking population, as well as the autonomous region of Gagauzia, which is at odds with the central government in Moldova's capital Chisinau. The outcome of elections on September 28th could determine Moldova's future policy towards the EU.
Moldova is not the only place where Russia has intensified its hybrid warfare: Moscow has employed the same playbook in the Western Balkans. The Balkans' most explosive tinderbox is Bosnia and Herzegovina. This year marks the 30 th anniversary of the Dayton peace agreement that ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
However, the country is still wracked by divisions between Bosniak, Serb, and Croat communities, and Russia has exploited these ethnic divisions to its advantage. The Dayton agreement is in jeopardy, with Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, another Russian ally, threatening Republika Srpska's secession from the country.
Russia has been trying to prove that Nato is a paper tiger unable to provide security in the Western Balkans. Russia's goal in the Balkans is to position itself as the region's only reliable conflict negotiator. This game plan accomplishes two goals: strengthening Moscow's standing in the region; and giving Putin leverage over Western powers.
Putin aims to keep Georgia, too, under his thumb. According to the US defence intelligence agency: 'Russia almost certainly aims to return Georgia to its sphere of influence. Since the parliamentary elections in October, the Georgian Dream-led government has created an environment that enables Russia to increase its influence in the country.'
The country's ruling populist party, Georgian Dream, has aligned with Moscow and spread fears that without them there will be war with Russia. According to former Georgian defence minister Vasil Sikharulidze, the Kremlin's hybrid strategy fuses economic coercion, political manipulation, and information warfare. In Georgia, Russia also supports separatist narratives in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia that Russian forces have occupied since the 2008 Russo-Georgian war.
The Georgian Dream party's decision to suspend EU accession negotiations until 2028 has fuelled massive protests across Georgia. Predictably, Russia's foreign intelligence service accused Washington of plotting a 'colour revolution.' The Georgian Dream government follows Russia's lead in other ways, too. Tbilisi's legislation governing the transparency of foreign influence is a copy of Russia's infamous 'foreign agent' legislation, which Putin uses to stifle free speech in Russian civil society.
Make no mistake: Putin will increasingly resort to asymmetric means of challenging and distracting the West by sowing chaos in Moldova, Georgia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In response, London should lead a coalition of willing states to counter Russia's hybrid war and conduct information operation campaigns, combating Russian influence and putting Moscow on the defensive. Now is the time for Britain and allied countries to show the world that Russia is an empty shell.
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Reuters
7 minutes ago
- Reuters
Outline emerges of Putin's offer to end his war in Ukraine
LONDON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Russia would relinquish tiny pockets of occupied Ukraine and Kyiv would cede swathes of its eastern land which Moscow has been unable to capture, under peace proposals discussed by Russia's Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at their Alaska summit, sources briefed on Moscow's thinking said. The account emerged the day after Trump and Putin met at an airforce base in Alaska, the first encounter between a U.S. president and the Kremlin chief since before the start of the Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is due to travel to Washington on Monday to discuss with Trump a possible settlement of the full-scale war, which Putin launched in February 2022. Although the summit failed to secure the ceasefire he said he had wanted, Trump said in an interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity that he and Putin had discussed land transfers and security guarantees for Ukraine, and had "largely agreed". "I think we're pretty close to a deal," he said, adding: "Ukraine has to agree to it. Maybe they'll say 'no'." The two sources, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said their knowledge of Putin's proposals was mostly based on discussions between leaders in Europe, the U.S. and Ukraine, and noted it was not complete. Trump briefed Zelenskiy and European leaders on his summit discussions early on Saturday. It was not immediately clear if the proposals by Putin were an opening gambit to serve as a starting point for negotiations or more like a final offer that was not subject to discussion. At face value, at least some of the demands would present huge challenges for Ukraine's leadership to accept. Putin's offer ruled out a ceasefire until a comprehensive deal is reached, blocking a key demand of Zelenskiy, whose country is hit daily by Russian drones and ballistic missiles. Under the proposed Russian deal, Kyiv would fully withdraw from the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions in return for a Russian pledge to freeze the front lines in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the sources said. Ukraine has already rejected any retreat from Ukrainian land such as the Donetsk region, where its troops are dug in and which Kyiv says serves as a crucial defensive structure to prevent Russian attacks deeper into its territory. Russia would be prepared to return comparatively small tracts of Ukrainian land it has occupied in the northern Sumy and northeastern Kharkiv regions, the sources said. Russia holds pockets of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions that total around 440 square km, according to Ukraine's Deep State battlefield mapping project. Ukraine controls around 6,600 square km of Donbas, which comprises the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and is claimed by Russia. Although the Americans have not spelled this out, the sources said they knew Russia's leader was also seeking - at the very least - formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, which Moscow seized from Ukraine in 2014. It was not clear if that meant recognition by the U.S. government or, for instance, all Western powers and Ukraine. Kyiv and its European allies reject formal recognition of Moscow's rule in the peninsula. They said Putin would also expect the lifting of at least some of the array of sanctions on Russia. However, they could not say if this applied to U.S. as well as European sanctions. Trump said on Friday he did not immediately need to consider retaliatory tariffs on countries such as China for buying Russian oil - which is subject to a range of Western sanctions - but might have to "in two or three weeks." Ukraine would also be barred from joining the NATO military alliance, though Putin seemed to be open to Ukraine receiving some kind of security guarantees, the sources said. However, they added that it was unclear what this meant in practice. European leaders said Trump had discussed security guarantees for Ukraine during their conversation on Saturday and also broached an idea for an "Article 5"-style guarantee outside the NATO military alliance. NATO regards any attack launched on one of its 32 members as an attack on all under its Article 5 clause. Joining the Atlantic alliance is a strategic objective for Kyiv that is enshrined in the country's constitution. Russia would also demand official status for the Russian language inside parts of, or across, Ukraine, as well as the right of the Russian Orthodox Church to operate freely, the sources said. Ukraine's security agency accuses the Moscow-linked church of abetting Russia's war on Ukraine by spreading pro-Russian propaganda and housing spies, something denied by the church which says it has cut canonical ties with Moscow. Ukraine has passed a law banning Russia-linked religious organisations, of which it considers the church to be one. However, it has not yet started enforcing the ban.
Telegraph
7 minutes ago
- Telegraph
Once again Vladimir Putin has left Donald Trump looking weak
SIR – The sight of Donald Trump applauding Vladimir Putin, the butcher of Ukraine, when the two met in Alaska was the most powerful symbol yet of Mr Trump's weakness ('Putin got exactly what he wanted from Trump', Analysis, August 16). He even purred at Putin's words: 'Next time in Moscow.' No deal, no ceasefire and no mention of sanctions: the Kremlin achieved a rout. Europe must now redouble its support for Volodymyr Zelensky. Adrian Charles Enfield, Middlesex SIR – For all Mr Trump's boasts, his summit with Putin produced no deal and no movement from a war-mongering Moscow. Russia left with a clear diplomatic win, embarrassing America. Mr Trump's idea of '10/10', as he described the meeting, is a curious one. Sebastian Monblat London SE14 SIR – No one can blame Donald Trump for trying, but he needs to face reality. Vladimir Putin is not interested in finishing a war he thinks he is winning. He regards Volodymyr Zelensky as the illegitimate leader of a country he doesn't recognise. He will only accept peace if it involves the capitulation of Ukraine as an independent country. David Kenny Tredunnock, Monmouthshire SIR – I am appalled that on VJ Day, while we honoured those who both died and survived, Mr Trump was insensitive enough to meet the aggressor Putin in his pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize. Nick Kester Wattisfield, Suffolk SIR – If Nato had deployed into Ukraine before Vladimir Putin's invasion, it would not be in the position it finds itself in now. The alliance has been shown up as weak, and seems to have forgotten that deterrence is a proven way to contain military aggression. Lt Col Jeremy Prescott (retd) Southsea, Hampshire
Scottish Sun
an hour ago
- Scottish Sun
Ukraine will be forced to surrender eastern territory & forget about joining Nato under Trump and Putin's peace terms
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) STRICKEN Ukraine will be forced to surrender large swathes of its eastern territory and forget about ever joining Nato under peace terms haggled by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The war-torn country's desire to join the European Union is also in doubt after the two superpower presidents held controversial talks in Alaska on Friday. Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up 8 Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin met in Alaska to end the conflict in Ukraine 8 Ukraine will be forced to surrender large swathes of its eastern territory under peace terms haggled by the leaders Credit: AFP 8 Zelensky has called for an end to the conflict on social media Credit: Getty Ukraine would be outlawed from joining the Western defence alliance, but have its redrawn borders underwritten by its US and European allies, in the terms suggested by the White House. Allies have offered 'ironclad' security assurances to protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression if a peace deal can be forged. But it would stop short of Nato Article 5 status, which sees members of the alliance leap to the aid of any member that is attacked. Ukraine's desire to join Nato has been blamed as a root cause of President Putin's invasion. READ MORE ON UKRAINE PUT IT THERE Trump and Putin locked in face to face talks after US leader's show of force He has insisted 'Nyet' — Russian for 'No' — over the proposal. But the future security of Ukraine is the number one condition of its president, Volodymyr Zelensky. British and other European troops could be committed to police the peace, with President Trump finally conceding the Americans would play a vital role in the future defence of Ukraine. Last night, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly stated: 'The good news is that America is ready to participate in such security guarantees and is not leaving it to the Europeans alone.' And PM Sir Keir Starmer said Trump's 'leadership in pursuit of an end to the killing' should be commended. Calls for an immediate ceasefire were dropped by world leaders yesterday, after Trump announced he was instead pursuing a more lasting 'peace deal'. Trump-Putin latest- Don says 'no deal' on Ukraine war & holds call with Zelensky after saying it's now 'up to him' Plans haggled at Friday's face-to-face summit are being circulated by the Americans after the US President and the Kremlin tyrant met for talks in Anchorage, Alaska, lasting more than three hours. The Sun has been told a surrender deal would see Ukraine forced to reject Nato membership and other 'multinational deals'. Negotiations would also begin about ceding control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine which are, in part, occupied by Russian troops. There was confusion last night over whether the talks would focus on territory currently held by the Kremlin invaders, or whether the wider regions were on the table. Yesterday, EU leaders insisted: 'Russia cannot have a veto against Ukraine's pathway to EU and Nato.' However, that does not rule out Zelensky deciding to withdraw Ukraine's stated aim to join both alliances as part of the wider deal. He will fly to Washington DC on Monday to meet with President Trump at the White House — six months after their disastrous Oval Office bust up, which saw the leader of the free world savage Zelensky live on TV. 8 Battered Ukraine will be outlawed from joining NATO Credit: Reuters Russia has long claimed Donetsk and Luhansk are more loyal to Moscow than Kyiv, while Zelensky has publicly ruled out giving up the land. However, he is under massive pressure to concede and end the bloody three-and-a-half year conflict, which has seen more than a million deaths. European leaders were locked in talks with the White House this weekend, as the world scrambled to catch up with what Trump had offered Putin to end the war. Last night, UK government sources said the PM was playing a key role in selling the terms of the deal to wider Western allies in a series of calls following the talks between the Americans and Russians. I welcome the openness of the United States, alongside Europe, to provide robust security guarantees to Ukraine as part of any deal. This is important progress and will be crucial in deterring Putin from coming back for more Sir Keir Starmer's statement Trump yesterday insisted it is time for Zelensky to choose whether to agree with the terms of the deal — as the pair prepared to meet tomorrow. The White House has also offered to play host to a trilateral summit between the Russians and Ukrainians if the deal is within reach. Speaking following Friday's talks, where he met with his Russian counterpart for the first time in six years, President Trump insisted it was 'a great and very successful day in Alaska!' He wrote on his Truth Social website: 'The meeting with President Vladimir Putin went very well, as did a late night phone call with President Zelensky and various European Leaders, including the highly respected Secretary General of Nato. 8 PM Sir Keir Starmer said Mr Trump's 'leadership in pursuit of an end to the killing' should be commended Credit: Getty 8 France's Emmanuel Macron and Italy's Giorgia Meloni, said: 'We are clear Ukraine must have ironclad security guarantees to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity' Credit: Getty 'It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up. 'President Zelensky will be coming to D.C., the Oval Office, on Monday afternoon. If all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin. 'Potentially, millions of people's lives will be saved. Thank you for your attention to this matter!' Last night, Putin also welcomed progress made at the talks, after leaving the summit without taking questions from hundreds of assembled journalists. In a televised address released by the Kremlin, he said: 'The conversation was very frank, substantive, and, in my opinion, brings us closer to the necessary decisions.' He added: 'We have not had direct negotiations of this kind at this level for a long time. We had the opportunity to calmly and in detail reiterate our position.' We are clear that Ukraine must have ironclad security guarantees to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. No limitations should be placed on Ukraine's armed forces or on its cooperation with third countries. Russia cannot have a veto against Ukraine's pathway to EU and NATO European statement In a long statement, Zelensky welcomed the offer of security guarantees outlined by Trump, in a tentative sign he may be willing to sign up to the terms. He wrote: 'A real peace must be achieved, one that will be lasting, not just another pause between Russian invasions. Killings must stop as soon as possible, the fire must cease both on the battlefield and in the sky, as well as against our port infrastructure. 'All Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians must be released, and the children abducted by Russia must be returned. 'Thousands of our people remain in captivity — they all must be brought home. Pressure on Russia must be maintained while the aggression and occupation continue.' He went on: 'In my conversation with President Trump, I said that sanctions should be strengthened if there is no trilateral meeting or if Russia tries to evade an honest end to the war. Sanctions are an effective tool. 'Security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term, with involvement of Europe and the US. 'All issues important to Ukraine must be discussed with Ukraine's participation, and no issue, particularly territorial ones, can be decided without Ukraine. I thank our partners who are helping.' Yesterday, the PM was taking part in a round of behind the scenes diplomacy, speaking to the White House and European capitals. He heaped praise on Trump, saying his 'efforts have brought us closer than ever before to ending Russia's illegal war in Ukraine'. He went on: 'His leadership in pursuit of an end to the killing should be commended.' But the PM warned: 'While progress has been made, the next step must be further talks involving President Zelensky. 8 Negotiations would begin about ceding control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Eastern Ukraine, pictured a soldier loading artillery Credit: Getty 'The path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without him. I spoke to President Zelensky, President Trump and other European partners, and we all stand ready to support this next phase. I welcome the openness of the United States, alongside Europe, to provide robust security guarantees to Ukraine as part of any deal. 'In the meantime, until he stops his barbaric assault, we will keep tightening the screws on his war machine with even more sanctions, which have already had a punishing impact on the Russian economy and its people. 'Our unwavering support for Ukraine will continue for as long as it takes.' In a joint statement, Sir Keir and European leaders, including France's Emmanuel Macron and Italy's Giorgia Meloni, said: 'We are clear Ukraine must have ironclad security guarantees to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. 'No limitations should be placed on Ukraine's armed forces or on its cooperation with third countries. Russia cannot have a veto against Ukraine's pathway to EU and Nato." 8 Italian leader Giorgia Meloni made a joint statement with Macron Credit: The Mega Agency
