17-07-2025
Moldova is the next front in Russia's assault on the West
As the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine continues into a third year, Vladimir Putin has set his sights on new frontiers where he can further sow destabilisation. Amongst his new targets are Moldova, Georgia and the Western Balkans, where Moscow is fomenting chaos in the hopes of diverting Western attention from the atrocities Russia is committing in Ukraine.
Putin can accomplish his security objectives here not through open conflict but by fuelling separatist movements and influence operations. On Monday, Russia's foreign intelligence agency accused Nato of making Moldova a 'forward base' and of 'preparing to draw Moldova into ... armed conflict with Russia.'
Russian media, meanwhile, spreads outlandish claims that Moldova is riddled with Western intelligence services and that 'MI6 is taking control of the Moldovan elections.' Moscow has also claimed Moldovan intelligence is cooperating with Ukraine to sabotage Russia.
According to this idea, the West is using Moldova as a weapon against Russia, escalating tensions there and driving the country towards the same fate as Ukraine. In psychology, this is called projection. It is Russia that is propagating chaos in Moldova's upcoming elections. Russia wants to show that the West, particularly Europe, will not respond out of fear of escalations and will not support Moldova's turn towards Europe.
Moldova, a small country in Europe that was once a Soviet Republic, has been subject to severe Russian pressure before. Russian 'peacekeepers' are located in Transnistria, an internationally unrecognised, pro-Russian breakaway region. Beyond blunt military force, Russia has a variety of other means to influence Moldovan politics.
During the 2024 presidential election campaign, Ilan Shor, a pro-Kremlin Moldovan oligarch, allegedly organised a $39 million vote-buying scheme through which over 138,000 Moldovans reportedly received money.
More subtly, Russia can take advantage of the fact that Moldova is home to a large Russian-speaking population, as well as the autonomous region of Gagauzia, which is at odds with the central government in Moldova's capital Chisinau. The outcome of elections on September 28th could determine Moldova's future policy towards the EU.
Moldova is not the only place where Russia has intensified its hybrid warfare: Moscow has employed the same playbook in the Western Balkans. The Balkans' most explosive tinderbox is Bosnia and Herzegovina. This year marks the 30 th anniversary of the Dayton peace agreement that ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
However, the country is still wracked by divisions between Bosniak, Serb, and Croat communities, and Russia has exploited these ethnic divisions to its advantage. The Dayton agreement is in jeopardy, with Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, another Russian ally, threatening Republika Srpska's secession from the country.
Russia has been trying to prove that Nato is a paper tiger unable to provide security in the Western Balkans. Russia's goal in the Balkans is to position itself as the region's only reliable conflict negotiator. This game plan accomplishes two goals: strengthening Moscow's standing in the region; and giving Putin leverage over Western powers.
Putin aims to keep Georgia, too, under his thumb. According to the US defence intelligence agency: 'Russia almost certainly aims to return Georgia to its sphere of influence. Since the parliamentary elections in October, the Georgian Dream-led government has created an environment that enables Russia to increase its influence in the country.'
The country's ruling populist party, Georgian Dream, has aligned with Moscow and spread fears that without them there will be war with Russia. According to former Georgian defence minister Vasil Sikharulidze, the Kremlin's hybrid strategy fuses economic coercion, political manipulation, and information warfare. In Georgia, Russia also supports separatist narratives in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia that Russian forces have occupied since the 2008 Russo-Georgian war.
The Georgian Dream party's decision to suspend EU accession negotiations until 2028 has fuelled massive protests across Georgia. Predictably, Russia's foreign intelligence service accused Washington of plotting a 'colour revolution.' The Georgian Dream government follows Russia's lead in other ways, too. Tbilisi's legislation governing the transparency of foreign influence is a copy of Russia's infamous 'foreign agent' legislation, which Putin uses to stifle free speech in Russian civil society.
Make no mistake: Putin will increasingly resort to asymmetric means of challenging and distracting the West by sowing chaos in Moldova, Georgia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In response, London should lead a coalition of willing states to counter Russia's hybrid war and conduct information operation campaigns, combating Russian influence and putting Moscow on the defensive. Now is the time for Britain and allied countries to show the world that Russia is an empty shell.
