How the Betting Markets Predict Trump-Musk Feud Will End
Investors on betting markets are having a field day with the fiery break-up between President Donald Trump and former 'first buddy' Elon Musk.
The trending page on the Polymarket, which famously beat pollsters in projecting Trump's 2024 win, is teeming with bets about the feud.
Will Trump and Musk reconcile in the next week? Will Trump be impeached? Will the president throw the world's richest man behind bars?
Ultimately, Polymarket investors aren't buying the most dramatic ends to the quarrel.
The odds of Trump jailing his former adviser are only 4 percent. And the chances that Trump ends up being impeached this year are at 11 percent.
On Kalshi, another similar prediction market, investors think there's an 18 percent chance that Trump could sue Musk and a 5 percent chance that the U.S. could ban X, Musk's social media platform.
But investors aren't bullish on a quick reconciliation, either.
On Polymarket, There's just a 2 percent chance that Trump will apologize to Musk by Monday, and a 17 percent chance that they settle their differences by next Friday.
Trump said on Friday that he has no intention of speaking to Musk anytime soon—and the markets believe him. The Polymarket odds that the men meet this month are 19 percent.
Kalshi is more optimistic, predicting that there's a 55 percent chance that Musk and Trump talk on the phone before July.
When the feud erupted Thursday, one of the biggest bombshells was dropped by Musk when he alleged that Trump was in the 'Epstein files.' He claimed that Trump's ties to the sex-offender financier were why government documents about Jeffrey Epstein had not been released.
Several of the Polymarket bets addressed the allegation. And investors don't believe we will get any new information on Trump's relationship with the pedophile anytime soon.
There was a 5 percent chance that the files Musk alleged exist would reach the public in June and an equally low chance that evidence of Trump visiting Epstein's notorious island would emerge.
Kalshi, however, predicted a 42 percent chance that some new Epstein files are released this year—whether they feature Trump or not.
Tensions had simmered between Trump and Musk over the last week, with the world's richest man offering harsh criticism of the president's 'big, beautiful' spending bill. Musk called it 'pork-filled' and urged Congress to vote against it.
The clash exploded on Thursday, however, with the two billionaires exchanging blows on social media.
Trump posted, 'Elon was 'wearing thin,' I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!'
Musk fired back with the Epstein claim and a call for Trump's impeachment.
Trump didn't take the bait, writing: 'I don't mind Elon turning against me, but he should have done so months ago. This is one of the Greatest Bills ever presented to Congress.'
Later on Thursday, Musk signaled he might be open to a truce. 'You're not wrong,' the tech entrepreneur wrote in response to a post from investor Bill Ackman calling for Trump and Musk to 'make peace.'
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Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Protests intensify in Los Angeles after Trump deploys National Guard troops
Tensions in Los Angeles escalated on Sunday as thousands of protesters took to the streets in response to US President Donald Trump's deployment of the National Guard. They blocked off a major road and set self-driving cars on fire as law enforcement used tear gas, rubber bullets and flash bangs to control the crowd. Many protesters dispersed as evening fell and police declared an unlawful assembly, a precursor to officers moving in and making arrests of people who do not leave. Some of those remaining threw objects at police from behind a makeshift barrier that spanned the width of a street and others hurled chunks of concrete, rocks, electric scooters and fireworks at California Highway Patrol officers and their vehicles parked on the closed southbound 101 freeway. Officers ran under an overpass to take cover. Sunday's protests in Los Angeles, a sprawling city of four million people, were centred in downtown several blocks. It was the third and most intense day of demonstrations against Mr Trump's immigration crackdown in the region, as the arrival of around 300 Guard troops spurred anger and fear among many residents. The Guard was deployed specifically to protect federal buildings, including the detention centre where protesters concentrated. Los Angeles Police Chief Jim McDonnell said officers were 'overwhelmed' by the remaining protesters. He said they included regular agitators who appear at demonstrations to cause trouble. Several dozen people were arrested throughout the weekend of protest. One was detained on Sunday for throwing a Molotov cocktail at police, and another for ramming a motorcycle into a line of officers. Let's get this straight: 1) Local law enforcement didn't need help. 2) Trump sent troops anyway — to manufacture chaos and violence. 3) Trump succeeded. 4) Now things are destabilized and we need to send in more law enforcement just to clean up Trump's mess. — Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 9, 2025 Mr Trump responded to Mr McDonnell on Truth Social, telling him to arrest protesters in face masks. 'Looking really bad in L.A. BRING IN THE TROOPS!!!' he wrote. Starting in the morning, the troops stood shoulder to shoulder, carrying long guns and riot shields as protesters shouted 'shame' and 'go home'. After some closely approached the guard members, another set of uniformed officers advanced on the group, shooting smoke-filled canisters into the street. Minutes later, the Los Angeles Police Department fired rounds of crowd-control munitions to disperse the protesters, who they said were assembled unlawfully. Much of the group then moved to block traffic on the 101 freeway until state patrol officers cleared them from the roadway by late afternoon. Nearby, at least four self-driving Waymo cars were set on fire, sending large plumes of black smoke into the sky and exploding intermittently as the electric vehicles burned. By evening, police had issued an unlawful assembly order shutting down several blocks of downtown Los Angeles. Flash bangs echoed out every few seconds into the evening. Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom requested that Mr Trump remove the guard members in a letter on Sunday afternoon, calling their deployment a 'serious breach of state sovereignty'. He was in Los Angeles meeting local law enforcement and officials. The deployment appeared to be the first time in decades that a state's national guard was activated without a request from its governor, a significant escalation against those who have sought to hinder the administration's mass deportation efforts. Mr Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass blamed the increasingly aggressive protests on Mr Trump's decision to deploy the Guard, calling it a move designed to inflame tensions. They have both urged protesters to remain peaceful. 'What we're seeing in Los Angeles is chaos that is provoked by the administration,' she said in an afternoon press conference. 'This is about another agenda, this isn't about public safety.' But Mr McDonnell, the LAPD chief, said the protests were following a similar pattern for episodes of civil unrest, with things ramping up in the second and third days. He pushed back against claims by the Trump administration that the LAPD had failed to help federal authorities when protests broke out on Friday after a series of immigration raids. His department responded as quickly as it could, and had not been notified in advance of the raids and therefore was not pre-positioned for protests, he said. Mr Newsom, meanwhile, has repeatedly said that California authorities had the situation under control. He mocked Mr Trump for posting a congratulatory message to the Guard on social media before troops had even arrived in Los Angeles, and said on MSNBC that Mr Trump never floated deploying the Guard during a Friday phone call. He called Mr Trump a 'stone cold liar'. The admonishments did not deter the administration. 'It's a bald-faced lie for Newsom to claim there was no problem in Los Angeles before President Trump got involved,' White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said in a statement. The arrival of the National Guard followed two days of protests that began Friday in Los Angeles before spreading on Saturday to Paramount, a heavily Latino city south of the city, and neighbouring Compton. Federal agents arrested immigrants in LA's fashion district, in a Home Depot parking lot and at several other locations on Friday. The next day, they were staging at a Department of Homeland Security office near another Home Depot in Paramount, which drew out protesters who suspected another raid. Federal authorities later said there was no enforcement activity at that Home Depot. The weeklong tally of immigrant arrests in the LA area climbed above 100, federal authorities said. Many more were arrested while protesting, including a prominent union leader who was accused of impeding law enforcement. The protests did not reach the size of past demonstrations that brought the National Guard to Los Angeles, including the Watts and Rodney King riots, and the 2020 protests against police violence, in which Mr Newsom requested the assistance of federal troops. The last time the National Guard was activated without a governor's permission was in 1965, when President Lyndon B Johnson sent troops to protect a civil rights march in Alabama, according to the Brennan Centre for Justice. 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Yahoo
27 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Newsom says California will sue Trump over National Guard, dares Homan to arrest him
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said California will sue the Trump administration on Monday over its deployment of the National Guard to quell Los Angeles protests against federal immigration raids. In an interview Sunday evening on MSNBC, Newsom said the lawsuit would challenge Trump's federalizing of the California National Guard without the state's consent, a move with little precedent in U.S. history. 'Donald Trump has created the conditions you see on your TV tonight. He's exacerbated the conditions. He's, you know, lit the proverbial match. He's putting fuel on this fire, ever since he announced he was taking over the National Guard — an illegal act, an immoral act, an unconstitutional act,' Newsom said on MSNBC. 'And we're going to test that theory with a lawsuit tomorrow,' he added.. Asked to elaborate on the lawsuit, Newsom said that under Trump's executive order, 'it specifically notes — and under what the [Department of Defense] did — is they had to coordinate with the governor of the state. They never coordinated with the governor of the state,' he said. Newsom noted that he has deployed the National Guard before to respond to various emergencies. 'We have no problem, working collaboratively in a mutual aid system with local law enforcement. But there's a protocol, there's a process. He didn't care about that. And the worst part, he completely lied,' he said. The governor pointed to Trump's Truth Social post earlier on Sunday, in which he said the National Guard had done a 'great job.' Newsom said the state forces had not even been deployed at the time. 'It's Orwellian, simply lying to people, unconstitutional, illegal act, his mess. We're trying to clean it up,' he added. Later in the interview, Newsom was asked about border czar Tom Homan's comments indicating he would not rule out arresting Newsom or Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass if they interfered in his efforts. 'Come after me, arrest me. Let's just get it over with, tough guy, you know? I don't give a damn. But I care about my community. I care about this community,' he continued. 'The hell are they doing? These guys need to grow up. They need to stop and we need to push back. And I'm sorry to be so clear, but that kind of bloviating is exhausting.' Newsom added. 'So, Tom, arrest me. Let's go.' Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
New York Post
33 minutes ago
- New York Post
Newsom plans to sue Trump admin over National Guard deployment to LA even as LAPD chief admits cops are ‘overwhelmed' by violent anti-ICE riots
California Gov. Gavin Newsom plans to file a lawsuit against the Trump administration early Monday morning over the president's deployment of 300 National Guard troops to Los Angeles, even as the LAPD chief admitted Sunday his cops 'are overwhelmed' by the violent anti-ICE riots taking over the city. Newsom announced he'll be suing the admin after he sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth Sunday, formally requesting that he rescind the 'unlawful' deployment of troops and return them to state control, as there was 'currently no need' for the Guardsmen. 8 California Gov. Gavin Newsom requested the Trump administration pull back the National Guard from the anti-ICE protests in Los Angeles. REUTERS 'At present, law enforcement authorities from the City and County of Los Angeles are safeguarding public safety, and, as demonstrated by the robust law enforcement response yesterday evening to protect federal facilities, local law enforcement resources are sufficient to maintain order,' Newsom wrote in the letter. He claimed the Trump administration — which said it would deploy 2,000 National Guard troops — did not coordinate its sending in of the troops with his office, as required by the directive. At the same time, the Department of Defense warned it has 500 Marines ready to deploy to the California city 'if violence continues.' Los Angeles delved further into chaos Sunday night, on the third day of protests against ICE officers' raids in the city. 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LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell called the barbarity 'disgusting' during a news conference, where he said the protests have gotten 'increasingly worse and more violent.' 'We are overwhelmed,' McDonnell said, according to NBC Los Angeles. 'Tonight, we had individuals out there shooting commercial-grade fireworks at our officers. That can kill you.' 8 Police cleared demonstrators after they blocked a street with a barricade during a protest against federal immigration sweeps. REUTERS Newsom blamed the chaos and violence on Trump's involvement. 'We didn't have a problem until Trump got involved. This is a serious breach of state sovereignty — inflaming tensions while pulling resources from where they're actually needed,' Newsom wrote on X. 'Rescind the order. Return control to California.' 8 A demonstrator waved a Mexico flag in front of burning dumpsters in Los Angeles on Sunday night. REUTERS Newsom debuted his soon-to-be-filed lawsuit against the Trump administration later Sunday evening and accused the president of being 'a stone-cold liar.' In his announcement, he claimed that Trump 'never once' mentioned the National Guard when the two talked on Friday. 'It was a very civil conversation. I've always wanted to approach engagement with the President of the United States in a respectful and responsible way. But there's no working with the president, there's only working for him. And I will never work for Donald Trump,' Newsom said. President Trump on Saturday ordered 2,000 National Guard troops to be dispatched to the protests. As of Sunday, roughly 300 had arrived, with 1,700 waiting in the wings. 8 Demonstrators partially shut down the 101 Freeway near downtown Los Angeles. ALLISON DINNER/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock Still, some Trump officials decided even that wasn't enough to cap the 2,000-man protests. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the Pentagon has an additional 500 Marines on standby nearby Camp Pendleton in LA. Earlier today, a protest including many veterans gathered outside the camp's grounds in opposition to military use in civil demonstrations, CBS 8 reported. The Federal Bureau of Investigation is also offering rewards up to $50,000 for information on protesters who allegedly assaulted a police officer at the protests on Sunday. One of the men was even added to the FBI's 'Most Wanted' list. 8 It is unclear how many people were arrested. Newsom is on the ground in LA meeting with the LA police and sheriffs to figure out next steps for quelling the protests sparked 'by chaos from Washington,' he wrote on X. 'We're here to keep the peace — not play into Trump's political games,' he wrote. LA Mayor Karen Bass echoed Newsom's sentiments, arguing the presence of the National Guard would only make things worse. 8 As of Sunday, roughly 300 members of the National Guard were in Los Angeles. Getty Images 'Deploying federalized troops on the heels of these raids is a chaotic escalation,' she said in a statement. 'If you want there to be chaos, then have troops on the ground when there is absolutely no need for that to happen,' she later added. Trump slammed both Newsom and Bass in a Truth Social post late Sunday night and claimed 'paid insurrectionists' were responsible for the riots. 'Governor Gavin Newscum and 'Mayor' Bass should apologize to the people of Los Angeles for the absolutely horrible job that they have done, and this now includes the ongoing L.A. riots,' he wrote. 'These are not protesters, they are troublemakers and insurrectionists.' 'Looking really bad L.A. BRING IN THE TROOPS!!!' Trump later posted.
