Box Office Grosses Won't Return to Pre-COVID Levels Even by 2029, New Report Forecasts

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U.S. and global box office and total cinema revenue will not reach pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by 2029, according to accounting firm PwC's annual closely watched media and entertainment outlook report released late on July 23.
In the U.S., pre-pandemic total cinema revenue is not forecast to be reached by 2029 despite a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9 percent. PwC had recorded nearly $11.7 billion in U.S. total cinema revenue in the pre-pandemic year 2019 after $11.8 billion in 2018. The firm projects the figure to rise from $8.9 billion in 2024 and $9.6 billion in 2025 to $10.1 billion in 2026, $10.3 billion in 2027, $10.6 billion in 2028 and $10.8 billion in 2029.
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Asked by The Hollywood Reporter about how pre-COVID box office levels are not expected to be reached by 2029, Bart Spiegel, PwC global entertainment and media leader, says: 'Unfortunately, this full recovery is unlikely within the forecast period. However, we project that by the end of 2029, the industry will be on the brink of a full rebound. In other words, 2030 may be the year global box office revenues return to pre-pandemic levels.'
Pre-COVID, U.S. box office in 2018 amounted to $10.8 billion before a 2019 drop to $10.7 billion. PwC forecasts the 2024 figure of $8.1 billion to grow to $8.7 billion this year. For the 2025-2029 period, it predicts a CAGR of 3.86 percent to push box office revenue to nearly $9.8 billion by the end of that period.
In terms of admissions, PwC lists 777 million for 2023, a drop to 734 million for 2024 and an estimated rebound to 778 million for 2025. It projects a 2.3 percent CAGR for the U.S. to 823 million in 2029, compared with 1.3 billion in 2019. By then, the average admission price will climb to $11.86, or 'over $2 more than the $9.16 charged in 2020 and 2021,' the report explains.
Total U.S. cinema revenue in 2024 fell to $8.9 billion from $9.1 billion in 2023, 'but the drop was anticipated and not as steep as had originally been feared,' highlighted the PwC report. (Yet it hit the bottom line of studios as well.) 'The Writers Guild of America (WGA) and Screen Actors Guild–American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) strikes of late 2023 had slowed down production — and there were fewer 'tentpole' titles than would normally have been anticipated.'
For the global box office, PwC forecasts the 2024 figure of $29.7 billion to grow to $33.5 billion this year. It then predicts continued growth to $37.7 billion by the end of the Outlook report period in 2029, compared with $39.4 billion in 2019.
'It's important to remember that industry revenues are ultimately driven by price times volume. In this case, while ticket prices are rising, admissions (volume) are not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels,' Spiegel says. 'Instead, the growth in global box office revenue is being fueled by higher ticket prices. These ticket price increases are driven by several factors, including enhanced infrastructure and facilities, technological advancements, and rising content costs.'
The accounting firm notes that transition has hit Hollywood many times in the past, highlighting: 'In recent years, the U.S. film sector has been disrupted. The streamers overturned traditional business models, the pandemic hit the box office, and the 2023 strikes stymied the post-COVID-19 recovery. But U.S. industry history reveals that the sector has experienced challenges many times before, with everything from the conversion to sound to the anti-trust legislation of the 1940s, the arrival of TV as a mass medium in the 1940s and 1950s, and the VHS revolution of the 1970s. In each case, the sector recovered. It is doing so again now.'
Here is a closer look at some of the U.S. cinema sector trends highlighted in PwC's Global Entertainment & Media Outlook.
Franchise Films and Tentpoles
Growth in U.S. box office revenue this year 'is again being driven, as in pre-COVID-19 years, by franchise movies building on existing IP — with Disney re-established as the pre-eminent player,' the report notes. The studio had three of the top five hits in the U.S. market in 2024: Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, and Moana 2.… Each of the five major studios — Disney, Universal, Warner Bros., Sony and Paramount — had sizable hits. Universal's Wicked, Despicable Me 4 and Twisters; Warner Bros.' Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire; Sony's Bad Boys: Ride or Die and It Ends With Us; and Paramount's Gladiator II and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 were all strong successes.'
PwC also points out that 'blockbuster titles like Captain America: Brave New World, the live-action Snow White and live-action How to Train Your Dragon, motorsport drama F1, the latest reboot of Superman, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2, Mission: Impossible – the Final Reckoning and Avatar: Fire and Ash should ensure that 2025 is a reasonably robust year. In 2025, it is expected that 110 films will be produced and released in more than 2,000 sites in North America, up from 95 in 2024.'
Meanwhile, 'an observation that has continued to be made over the last decade is that so-called mid-budget movies, which include award-contending dramas, are struggling at the box office,' PwC mentions. 'These are the pictures that spectators seemingly prefer to watch at home.'
Concludes PwC: 'The U.S. remains a very polarised market with a handful of 'tentpole' movies accounting for a vast amount of the profits.'
Windows Experiments
Experiments with day and date releasing, making big blockbusters available on streaming platforms with little or no period of exclusivity in cinemas, 'have now been largely discarded,' the PwC report highlights. 'This reveals a shift in the studios' mindset and an acknowledgement that releasing in cinemas first is still regarded as the most reliable way to drive ancillary sales. Streamers involved in film production, like Amazon MGM and Apple, are also committing to 45-day theatrical windows for their bigger titles.'
Netflix remains focused on its streaming platform, though. 'Netflix's Oscar contender Emilia Pérez was given only a very brief theatrical release (primarily to ensure awards qualification) before being launched to stream on the Netflix platform,' notes the Outlook. 'Emilia Pérez's box office revenue was, relatively, low at around $15 million globally. The film secured 13 Oscar nominations despite not being seen widely on the big screen.'
Cinema Appeal
'U.S. exhibitors have been trumpeting research that suggests the public is re-embracing the theatrical experience,' PwC points out. 'The National Association of Theatre Owners cited a report into cinema-going habits compiled by UCLA, which revealed that seeing a movie during opening weekend ranks as the number one preferred activity among 10–24-year-olds. This counters prevailing anxiety about the loss of a younger audience too preoccupied with TikTok and Instagram to go to cinemas. Market research also suggests that for certain genres — horror and comedy in particular — younger cinema-goers like to watch with their peers and to enjoy the shared experience.'
Theater Amenities
Cinema operators' upgrades to luxury seats is 'one factor driving admissions for more-affluent customers,' according to PwC. Loyalty and subscription programs offering discounts have also been on the rise. For 2024, the firm reports 119 million loyalty club members, up from 106 million in 2023.
'PLF is continuing to make gains,' the Outlook report also emphasizes. 'In North America, 950 theatres now have large-format screens — a 37 percent increase from five years ago and a clear sign that cinema-goers are looking for a spectacular experience that can't be replicated at home. A record number of at least 14 Hollywood and international releases shot with Imax cameras will hit cinemas in 2025 — and will be shown on the Imax global platform at the company's 1,700 locations.'
Sony's Alamo Deal Could Spur Theater Buys
Sony Pictures' 2024 acquisition of exhibitor Alamo Drafthouse made Sony the first studio giant to move back into owning cinema assets. 'Anti-trust legislation that had been in place for over 70 years, from 1948 to 2020, meant that Hollywood studios were previously prevented from owning their own movie theatres,' highlights PwC in its report. 'There is the possibility that other U.S. studios will follow suit. This means they can again become fully vertically integrated — controlling production, distribution and exhibition, just as they did during their heyday from the 1920s to the 1940s.'
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