Silver lining: Alberta natural gas — and budget — get boost with historic LNG ocean shipment
If LNG prices are the silver lining of non-renewables, the light clouds could be gas prices — and the shadow comes from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.
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'Overall, the oil market is good, not great,' Botterill said.
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OPEC+ has reversed voluntary production cuts, announcing consecutive monthly production increases since April.
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'This strategy aims to capture greater market share from non-OPEC producers amidst a volatile global trade environment influenced by U.S. tariffs,' the Deloitte & Touche report found.
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The Energy Information Administration expects oil production growth in 2025 will surpass annual demand growth, posing a risk of oversupply.
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'We are in a little bit of an oversupply place right now around the globe, meaning that I think we're probably going to see OPEC probably stay the line and stay the course, because I think they'd much rather see higher prices than flooding the market,' Botterill said.
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'Obviously, with some of the conflicts going on right now, there's big supply chain issues and cargoes not being able to move directions we'd like to move them due to foreign conflicts, so we may see some problems on that.'
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Overall, in the Canadian market, the discount on Western Canadian Select (WCS) to WTI settlement prices has narrowed with markedly low fluctuation, to around US$10 in the past quarter, achieving one of the lowest quarterly averages observed for this differential in recent years, the Deloitte & Touche report found.
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Much of the credit goes to the 2024 twinning of the Trans Mountain Pipeline from Edmonton to Burnaby, B.C. and Washington state, with a 'batching' process allowing different petroleum products—and more than twice as much of it—to move through the pipeline in sequence.
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'This suggests that the TMX, which was completed last year to enable pipeline egress for heavy crude from Western Canada, is the main factor sustaining the narrow differential and appears to have fundamentally affected the Canadian oil market on whole,' the report found.
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'What has been great about the Trans Mountain Pipeline extension is having that those extra seaborne volumes going out into Asia have strengthened Canadian received prices. It kind of proves the case that, hey, if we have more markets that we can get to, people have to compete for our volumes, right?' Botterill said.
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In Q3 2025, Canadian oil differentials may tighten further as wildfires across Alberta have contributed to the shut-in of 7 per cent of Canada's production, according to Reuters estimates.
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The Alberta government saw the 2024-25 fiscal year ending March 31 with a healthy bottom line, with a $4.7 billion injection from non-renewable resource revenue and record-high production, as well as the opening of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in May 2024.
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Canada Standard
20 minutes ago
- Canada Standard
Daily World Briefing, July 12
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Winnipeg Free Press
44 minutes ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
DOGE sprouts in red states, as governors embrace the cost-cutter brand and make it their own
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At the same time, some governors are using their DOGE vehicles to take aim at GOP targets of the moment, such as welfare programs or diversity, equity and inclusion programs. And some governors who might be eyeing a White House run in 2028 are rebranding their cost-cutting initiatives as DOGE, perhaps eager to claim the mantle of the most DOGE of them all. No chainsaws in the states At least 26 states have initiated DOGE-style efforts of varying kinds, according to the Economic Policy Institute based in Washington, D.C. Most DOGE efforts were carried out through a governor's order — including by governors in Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, New Hampshire and Oklahoma — or by lawmakers introducing legislation or creating a legislative committee. The state initiatives have a markedly different character than Trump's slash-and-burn approach, symbolized by Musk's chainsaw-brandishing appearance at a Conservative Political Action Committee appearance in February. 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Her administration spent much of 2024 compiling a 97-page report that listed hundreds of ways to possibly save $300 million inside a $6.5 billion budget. Achieving that savings — largely by standardizing information technology and purchasing — would sometimes require up-front spending and take years to realize savings. ___ Follow Marc Levy on X at:
CTV News
3 hours ago
- CTV News
Southern Albertans still wrapping heads around latest tariff threat
The United States is again threatening Canada with tariffs. It's unclear what impact this latest trade-war turn might have on southern Alberta. United States President Donald Trump has threatened to slap Canada with a 35 per cent tariff starting Aug. 1. That moves back a deadline of July 21 that was set during the G7 Leaders' Summit to hammer out a new trade deal. Southern Albertans are still wrapping their heads around what this might mean for the region. 'About 90 per cent of Lethbridge is manufacturing products that are exported to the United States, so obviously, any tariff is a huge concern,' said Trevor Lewington, Economic Development Lethbridge CEO. It's the latest wrinkle in a tumultuous trade war between the two countries. The tariffs would only impact goods that aren't compliant with the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. Some see the new tariffs as nothing more than a negotiation tactic. 'I hope that this is just a negotiating tactic, very similar to Trump's sort of historical style, and, you know, hopefully the Canadian government will be able to move through this and come to an agreement with them,' said Lewington. The United States is again threatening Canada with tariffs. It's unclear what impact this latest trade-war turn might have on southern Alberta. The United States is again threatening Canada with tariffs. It's unclear what impact this latest trade-war turn might have on southern Alberta. The agriculture industry isn't sounding the alarm just yet. Many producers have grown accustomed to the back-and-forth tariffs and won't be concerned until any additional tariffs are actually put in place. 'Well, it raises that kind of threat of instability within our industry again—something similar to what happened last November … although I think people aren't panicking quite as bad as they did at that point in time,' said Lynn Jacobson, Alberta Federation of Agriculture president. Premier Danielle Smith has spoken out against the latest tariff announcement. In a statement posted online, the premier said, 'The threatened increase to U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods would be a tax on the American people. They would also hurt Canadian and American businesses and workers, and damage one of the most important trading and security alliances on earth.' Energy and potash tariffs are expected to stay at 10 per cent.
