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FuturePlay's Kwon on Investment Strategy

FuturePlay's Kwon on Investment Strategy

Bloomberg23-05-2025

The Asia Trade
Oh-hyoung Kwon, CEO and Partner at FuturePlay, discusses his investment strategy and outlook in the Korean tech startup space, He speaks with Annabelle Droulers on the sidelines of BEYOND Expo in Macau on "Bloomberg: The Asia Trade". (Source: Bloomberg)

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Corporate Cash Levels Are Starting to Fall
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While companies are still generally performing well, shrinking cash levels can be a sign of business slowing and profits falling. That's a particular concern now as escalating trade wars potentially boost the cost of foreign inputs, weigh on profits, and increase inflation. Bond prices for many US companies leave little room for error. Spreads, or risk premiums, on US high-grade corporate debt averaged just 0.85 percentage point on Friday, the tightest level since March. The average level for the last two decades is closer to 1.5 percentage point. 'It's actually a dangerous position to be in,' said Michael Contopoulos, deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. 'If you bring down cash balances and you find yourself having to deal with higher inflation and higher volatility, your debt is going to get punished.' For the biggest cash generators, the story is different. Giants from Meta Platforms Inc. to Microsoft Corp. and Nvidia Corp. generally posted strong earnings this quarter. The top 12 biggest holders of cash saw their holdings rise about 1.4%, to around $756.7 billion. The dozen companies, which also include companies outside of the technology industry like Johnson & Johnson, each have more than $30 billion of cash and marketable securities on their books, and hold in total about 40% of the S&P 500's cash. The biggest companies can distort averages, and by some measures many high-grade companies aren't looking great. Leverage levels, for example, have been better about 80% of the time over the last two decades, a UBS Group AG analysis found. But by other measures companies are still performing well. Investment-grade firms are holding more cash as a share of their assets than they have on average over the past decade, according to data from S&P that analyzed North American companies. 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On the Move MUFG Securities Americas Inc. has hired two longtime leveraged loan bankers — Adam Hoffman and Roger Gilbert — as it continues to grow that business. Hoffman joins as head of loan trading while Gilbert will serve as head of loan sales. Both previously worked at Macquarie Group Ltd., which shuttered its US debt capital markets arm earlier this year to focus on private credit. Lane42 Investment Partners founder Scott Graves is building out his senior leadership team, hiring former CVC Capital Partners and Oaktree Capital Management employees to add to the asset manager he founded earlier this year. London-based hedge fund Redhedge Asset Management LLP has hired two portfolio managers amid growing US investor interest for European credit. Won Choi joined from Maven Investment Partners to oversee credit opportunities and special situations. Nick Campregher, formerly at ExodusPoint Capital Management, started last month and is focusing on financials. 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America's biggest lender is closing its wallet — and investors and home buyers will feel it. Here's what to watch.
America's biggest lender is closing its wallet — and investors and home buyers will feel it. Here's what to watch.

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Over the past 40 years, Japan has helped bankroll Americans' lifestyle while its own economy sank into decades of stagnation. Now the tab's due, and it might cost the U.S. a fortune. The Japanese have been floating America's boat since the mid-1980s. Not out of kindness. Not out of stupidity. But because of a deal so sweet that nobody wanted to talk about it. 'He failed in his fiduciary duty': My brother liquidated our mother's 401(k) for her nursing home. He claimed the rest. I help my elderly mother every day and drive her to appointments. Can I recoup my costs from her estate? 'The situation is extreme': I'm 65 and leaving my estate to only one grandchild. Can the others contest my will? My new husband gave me a contract and told me to 'sign here' — but I refused. It was the best decision of my life. My daughter's boyfriend, a guest in my home, offered to powerwash part of my house — then demanded money Now the deal's going bad. Japan's drowning in debt, its politics are in chaos and it needs its money back. And when your biggest lender starts heading for the exits, it's time to pay attention. Japan holds $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds. It's got more U.S. paper than any other country. But unlike China — the second-largest Treasury holders — Japan has never complained about it. Japan just kept buying, kept lending, kept quiet. But here's the thing about quiet money — when it stops being quiet, you've got problems. Look at Japan today: government debt at 235% of GDP — that's like owing your annual salary times 2.3 to Visa. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hanging on to power like a cat on a screen door, with 21% approval after a series of fundraising scandals and economic missteps. You know what happens when your biggest lender is both broke and paralyzed? America's reliable ATM is about to display 'INSUFFICIENT FUNDS.' Picture this: 1945. World War II is over. America's got the guns, Japan's got the ruins. The U.S. cut a deal — military protection for economic cooperation. But the real magic trick came later. For the next 40 years, Japan rebuilt itself, accumulating dollars and using them for its own development. Japan went from making tin toys to Toyotas JP:7203 TM, from cheap radios to world-class electronics. By 1985, they'd completed their first miracle. Then came the second act. The Plaza Accord of 1985 — five finance ministers in a New York hotel room deciding to dismantle Japan's export machine. Japan signed on too, thinking they could manage it. They couldn't. The yen USDJPY shot up 50% against the U.S. dollar DXY in two years. Japan faced a choice: Watch its economic miracle turn into a pumpkin, or get creative. They got creative. Instead of converting their mountain of trade-surplus dollars to yen (which would have pushed the yen even higher), the Japanese did something beautiful. They started buying U.S. Treasury bonds. Mountains of them. It was perfect. The U.S. got to keep borrowing. Japan got to keep exporting. Nobody had to mention that the whole thing was a shell game. As economists have long warned, this recycling machine couldn't last forever. But that's a problem for the next guy. For the next 40 years — from 1985 to now — this recycling machine has been running nonstop. Japan made our Walkmans (Google it, kids), Americans would buy them with dollars, and then — here's the beautiful part — Japan would loan those dollars back to the U.S. by purchasing Treasury bonds. It's like paying your bartender with an IOU, then having him loan you money to keep drinking. Genius! Three major shifts are killing this arrangement, and they're all happening at once. First, demographics. Japan's aging population needs those savings for retirement, not for subsidizing American consumption. Turns out, elderly Japanese people prefer eating actual food to dining on Treasury bonds. Read: Why America's aging population will be a problem for stocks — and your retirement Second, debt. At 235% of GDP, Japan's government debt makes America's national debt look positively prudent, like comparing a shopaholic to someone who merely forgot to cancel their gym membership. As Japan's bond rates rise, the math becomes more impossible than explaining cryptocurrency to your grandmother. Third, politics. Prime Minister Ishiba's government hangs by a thread, with 21% approval after a series of fundraising scandals and economic missteps. You can't run a corner store with 21% approval, let alone a country. Adding to the pressure, there's declining demand for Japanese government bonds domestically. This forces Japan to raise interest rates, which in turn makes holding U.S. Treasurys even less attractive. When your own bonds can't find buyers, it's hard to justify buying someone else's. Enter Masayoshi Son, the SoftBank JP:9984 SFTBY billionaire who's become President Donald Trump's favorite Japanese dealmaker. He pledged $100 billion in U.S. investments in December, but that was just the warm-up act. Son doesn't look like a financial revolutionary. He looks more like your accountant's fun uncle. But this billionaire who makes Elon Musk look risk-averse has reportedly floated an idea more radical than Trump's Gaza resort plan: transform Japan's passive Treasury holdings into active investments in American companies through a joint sovereign wealth fund. According to financial press reports, this would mean converting government bonds into equity stakes in U.S. technology, infrastructure and energy projects. Picture this: Instead of Japan parking $1 trillion in government bonds yielding less than a savings account at the Bank of Mattress, this money would flow into U.S. technology, infrastructure and energy projects. Both nations would share the profits. Americans might even be able to buy shares, receiving dividends from Japanese investment in the U.S. economy. Of course, converting $1 trillion in bonds to equity investments would be fraught with risks — currency fluctuations, market volatility and political backlash on both sides of the Pacific. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would face a delicate task in making this transition without triggering a bond-market crisis — kind of like defusing a bomb while riding a unicycle. If Japan simply dumped its Treasury holdings, interest rates would spike faster than blood pressure at a tax audit. Time to panic? Not yet. But keep your running shoes handy. The immediate risks are clear: But the opportunity is equally significant. A U.S.-Japan investment fund could: This isn't just about financial engineering — though let's be honest, financial engineering is sexier than it sounds, like accounting's dangerous cousin who rides a motorcycle. It's about whether America can maintain access to foreign capital while reducing its debt dependence, kind of like keeping your rich friends while learning to pay for your own drinks. For 40 years, the U.S. has run its economy on other nations' savings like a teenager with Dad's credit card. That model is more exhausted than a parent of triplets. Critics will call this government interference in free markets. But free markets in international finance have always been about as real as professional wrestling — entertaining, but heavily choreographed. Every major economy practices industrial policy; America just outsourced its policy to allies and called it 'free trade.' Now the U.S. is bringing it home like a college kid with dirty laundry. Read: Why Trump's tax and spending bill isn't getting the bond market's vote Japan's quiet subsidy of American prosperity is ending. The U.S. Federal Reserve can't print its way out of this one — they've tried that trick more times than a birthday party magician. Congress can't tax its way out either, though God knows they'll probably try. The only path forward is a new bargain that transforms debt into equity, dependence into partnership. For American investors and homeowners, the message is crystal clear: The era of cheap money is over. Lock in fixed-rate mortgages while you can. Prepare for higher interest rates. And watch for announcements of new investment vehicles that could reshape global finance. The greatest risk isn't change — it's pretending the old system can continue. Japan's bondholders are already voting with their wallets. The only question is whether Washington can engineer an economic soft landing for the U.S. or whether the country is headed for the kind of turbulence that has flight attendants reaching for their own oxygen masks. Here's what to watch as these transitions unfold: For 40 years, Americans' have been drinking champagne on Japan's tab. Now it's closing time and they want to be paid in something besides IOUs. Welcome to the morning after. . More: Jamie Dimon's bond-market warnings put investors on alert to diversify outside U.S. Also read: The 'mother of all credit squeezes' is coming — hang on to your wallet 'I'm not wildly wealthy, but I've done well': I'm 79 and have $3 million in assets. Should I set up 529 plans for my grandkids? How do I make sure my son-in-law doesn't get his hands on my daughter's inheritance? Circle's stock is having another big day. What the blockbuster IPO has meant for other cryptocurrency plays. The S&P 500 closes at 6,000 as bulls aim for return to record territory 'I was pushed out of her life when she was 18': My estranged daughter, 29, misuses drugs. Should I leave her my Roth IRA? 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