Top Strategists See Trade Woes Curbing Gains for European Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is expected to end the year at around 554 points, according to the average of 18 strategists polled by Bloomberg, about 2% up from Wednesday's close.
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(Bloomberg) -- After months of intensive talks and shuttle diplomacy, a trade agreement between the European Union and the US now rests mostly on Donald Trump. Trump Awards $1.26 Billion Contract to Build Biggest Immigrant Detention Center in US The High Costs of Trump's 'Big Beautiful' New Car Loan Deduction Can This Bridge Ease the Troubled US-Canadian Relationship? Salt Lake City Turns Winter Olympic Bid Into Statewide Bond Boom Trump Administration Sues NYC Over Sanctuary City Policy European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Scotland to meet the US president on Sunday, as the two sides aim to conclude a deal ahead of Friday's deadline, at which point 30% tariffs on the bloc's exports to the US are otherwise due to kick in. 'Intensive negotiations at technical and political have been ongoing,' said Paula Pinho, von der Leyen's spokesperson. 'Leaders will now take stock and consider the scope for a balanced outcome that provides stability and predictability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.' EU officials have repeatedly cautioned that a deal ultimately rests with Trump, making the final outcome difficult to predict. The US president recently negotiated with Japan and appeared to change certain final terms on the fly before a deal was eventually agreed earlier this week. The EU and US have been zeroing in on an agreement over the past week that would see the EU face 15% tariffs on most of its trade with the US. Limited exemptions are expected for aviation, some medical devices and generic medicines, several spirits, and a specific set of manufacturing equipment that the US needs, Bloomberg previously reported. Steel and aluminum imports would likely benefit from a quota under the arrangements under discussion, but above that threshold they would face a higher tariff of 50%. Alongside a universal levy, the US president has hit cars and auto parts with a 25% levy, and steel and aluminum with double that. He's also threatened to target pharmaceuticals and semiconductors with new duties as early as next month, and recently announced a 50% tariff on copper. The EU is expecting the same 15% ceiling on some sectors that could be the target of future tariffs, including pharmaceuticals, according to people familiar with the matter. But that's one of the key points where Trump's position will be crucial to a deal being sealed, the people added. 'We'll see if we make a deal,' Trump said as he arrived in Scotland on Friday. 'Ursula will be here, highly respected woman. So we look forward to that.' Trump reiterated that he believed there's 'a 50-50 chance' of a deal with the EU, saying there were sticking points on 'maybe 20 different things' that he didn't want to detail publicly. 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The terms of any initial deal, which is likely to take the form of a short joint statement if agreed upon, would need to be approved by member states, some of the people said. The statement would be seen as a stepping stone toward more detailed talks. Because of the ongoing uncertainty, the EU has in parallel sketched out countermeasures in the event of a no-deal scenario. That would see it quickly hit American exports with up to 30% tariffs on some €100 billion ($117 billion) worth of goods — including Boeing Co. aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey — in the event of a no-deal, and if Trump carries through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1 or in future. The package also includes some export restrictions on scrap metals. 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Should You Really Buy Stocks as the S&P 500 Roars by Record Highs? History Gives a Shocking Answer.
Key Points The S&P 500 is seeing a surprising turnaround from the pervasive bearish sentiment that plagued the stock market earlier this year. Record highs are more common than investors might think. Buying an S&P 500 index fund only on days when the index hit a record high has historically yielded better returns than buying on any random day. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has rocketed through five record highs in five days as of Friday, July 25. That strong upward momentum stands out in stark contrast to the pervasive bearish sentiment that plagued the stock market earlier this year. Is it smart to buy stocks with the S&P 500 roaring by record highs? Historical data gives a shocking answer. Record highs in the stock market are relatively common The S&P 500 is one of several major stock market indexes in the United States, but it is generally considered the best benchmark for the overall U.S. market due to its breadth. The index includes 500 large-cap companies that cover more than 80% of domestic equities by market capitalization. The S&P 500 hits all-time highs more frequently than investors may realize. The index has historically closed at a record high on one in 15 trading days, which is approximately 7% of the time, according to JPMorgan Chase. Moreover, the index often keeps climbing (or at least holding its level) with little to no backtracking. If we define "market floor" as incidents when the S&P 500 never declines more than 5% following a high, then nearly one in three record highs since 1988 have been market floors. In other words, about 30% of the time, the S&P 500 never fell more than 5% after hitting a high. The stock market tends to perform better following record highs Many investors get nervous when the stock market reaches an all-time high. The little voice in the back of your head may tell you to stop buying stocks, or even to sell existing positions. However, history says that this instinct is more likely to backfire than to prevent losses. Goldman Sachs analysts recently explained: "Contrary to conventional wisdom, investing in the S&P 500 exclusively on days when the market hit an all-time high has historically outperformed investing on any given day, producing stronger returns over the next 1, 3, and 5 years." The chart below expands on that information. It compares the average forward return in the S&P 500 when money is invested (1) unconditionally on any given day, and (2) exclusively on days when the index reached a record high. Time Period S&P Forward Return (From Any Given Day) S&P 500 Forward Return (From Record Highs) 6 Months 6% 6% 1 Year 12% 13% 2 Years 25% 29% 3 Years 40% 46% 5 Years 75% 81% Data source: JPMorgan Chase. Forward returns include dividend payments. Data collected between January 1988 and December 2024. The data shown above comes from JPMorgan Chase. It verifies Goldman's conjecture that an S&P 500 index fund would have generated better returns had money only been invested at all-time highs, rather than on any random day. In short, investors have no reason to fear record highs in the S&P 500. Quite the opposite, in fact. History says those days are good opportunities to add money to the stock market, no matter how counterintuitive it may seem. However, I would be remiss not to add this disclaimer: Historical data is never a guarantee of future returns, because every situation is different. In this case, the S&P 500 currently trades at 22.2 times forward earnings, a meaningful premium to the 10-year average of 18.4 times forward earnings, according to FactSet Research. The economy also has yet to feel the full effect of President Donald Trump's tariffs, which introduces downside risk. Indeed, the S&P 500 has a median year-end target price of 6,300 among 17 Wall Street analysts, which implies about 1% downside from its current level of 6,378. That does not mean investors should avoid the market. Rather, they should err on the side of caution by focusing solely on high-conviction ideas. Should you invest $1,000 in S&P 500 Index right now? Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $636,774!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,064,942!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,040% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 182% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025 JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends FactSet Research Systems, Goldman Sachs Group, and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Should You Really Buy Stocks as the S&P 500 Roars by Record Highs? History Gives a Shocking Answer. was originally published by The Motley Fool 擷取數據時發生錯誤 登入存取你的投資組合 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤
