Russia Downs Ukrainian Drones, UK-Supplied Missiles In Fresh Counter Assault, Claims Moscow
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First Post
2 minutes ago
- First Post
Why India is watching the Alaska summit closely
As India prepares to celebrate its Independence Day, it is undoubtedly keeping its eye on the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska. But why does India have a stake in the successful outcome of the meeting between Putin and Trump? What do experts say? Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska tomorrow (August 15). And India is watching closely. As India prepares to celebrate its Independence Day, it is undoubtedly keeping its eye on the events that are occurring nearly 10,000 kilometers away in the last Frontier State. But why does India have a stake in the successful outcome of the meeting between Putin and Trump? Let's take a closer look: New Delhi's position on the war From the beginning of the Ukraine war in 2022, New Delhi has taken a consistent and pragmatic position – the war must end through dialogue and diplomacy. This is a sentiment Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly voiced over the years. Perhaps none more memorably than in October 2022 on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Modi, meeting Putin, told the Russian president 'this is not the era of war'. 'I know that today's era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this', Modi said. 'We've spoken to you many times on the phone before on this, that democracy, diplomacy and dialogue — these things help the world. In the coming days, we will get the chance to talk about how to move on to the road to peace, I will also get the chance to better understand your viewpoint.' Putin at the time responded, 'I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, the concerns that you constantly express. We will do everything to stop this as soon as possible.' Modi and India's message was even reflected in the declaration of the Bali G20 Summit in 2022. Modi also conveyed a similar message to Putin during his trip to Russia in July 2024 – which came just after a Russian airstrike on a children's Hospital in Kyiv left over three dozen dead. Modi, addressing Putin as his dear friend, said peace is 'of utmost importance' and a solution to the war in Ukraine 'cannot be found on the battlefield'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly voiced the sentiment that the war must end via dialogue and diplomacy. 'I know that war cannot solve problems, solutions and peace talks can't succeed among bombs, guns and bullets. And we need to find a way to peace through dialogue,' Modi said at the Kremlin. 'When innocent children are murdered, one sees them die, the heart pains and that pain is unbearable', he added. He repeated the message when he visited Poland last year for a two-day trip and met Indian diaspora. Modi before the trip said he would 'share perspectives' on a peaceful resolution of the conflict. 'As a friend and partner, we hope for an early return of peace and stability in the region,' Modi said. He repeated 'this is not an era of war' and any conflict should be resolved through diplomacy and dialogue. The Ministry of External Affairs also reiterated this message after news of the Trump-Putin summit emerged. 'As Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said on several occasions, 'This is not an era of war'', the MEA said. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Opportunity to ease tensions with US The Trump-Putin summit could also ease tensions between India and the United States over the purchase of Russian crude oil. Trump has imposed a 50 per cent tariff on India for its trade relationship with Russia and accused New Delhi of fuelling Russia's war in Ukraine. India has hit back calling the levies 'unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.' New Delhi has also pointed out that prior to the war, India bought a fraction of its crude from Moscow and that it began doing so with US encouragement, which also kept the price of crude under control for the world. It also pointed to the hypocrisy of the United States and Europe continuing to trade with Russia. It has said it has placed the national interest above all else and will continue to do so. This was backed up by the Kremlin with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying, 'Sovereign countries should have and do have the right to choose their own trading partners.' Trump has also ruled out further trade talks with India until the 'crude oil issue is resolved'. The development came in the backdrop of India and the United States trying to negotiate a trade deal. The United States has been pushing hard to for India to open up its sensitive dairy and agricultural sector. Senior US officials have said that Trump and the entire trade team are frustrated by New Delhi's insistence of a red line on agriculture. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD A Russian crude oil tanker transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul. Reuters India's interest in a breakthrough in Alaska is clear. If Trump and Putin agreed to a ceasefire, the US-led West may roll back some sanctions on Russia. This in turn will help India, which is an important trading partner of Russia, to continue purchasing Russian oil. India has saved billions over the past few years as it buys crude oil from Russia, which has been placed under a cap and not sanctioned by the West. Experts have said that India's crude oil bill could rise between $1.5 billion and $12 billion in the coming years if it stops buying Russian crude. They have warned that doing so would be 'logistically daunting, economically painful and geopolitically fraught'. 'The pivot away from Russia, if forced, will be costly, complex and politically fraught', data firm Kpler wrote. Trade deal negotiations could restart It will also relieve some pressure off Trump himself, who has seemingly grown frustrated with Putin in recent months. Trump came to office vowing to end the war 'within 24 hours'. 'We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth', Trump said in July. 'We're not happy with Putin. I'm not happy with Putin. I can tell you that much right now, because he's killing a lot of people.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Trump can tout any breakthrough in Alaska with Putin as a victory. He can roll back tariffs on India and allow the trade deal negotiations to restart. US President Donald Trump and some of his officials from the administration have been pressuring India to forego its oil trade with Russia. File image/Reuters US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that several major trade deals, including those with Switzerland and India, remain pending, remarking that New Delhi had been 'a bit recalcitrant' in its negotiations with Washington. Bessent has said that the Trump administration hopes to conclude the trade negotiations by the end of October. Modi, in his first response to Trump's move, has vowed never to compromise on the interests of India's farmers, even if it meant paying a heavy political price. 'Our farmers' welfare is paramount,' Modi said at an event in New Delhi. 'India will never compromise on the wellbeing of its farmers, dairy sector, or fishermen — and I know I may have to pay a heavy price for standing firm on this.' Keeping options open, Russia relationship A ceasefire or a peace deal in Alaska would allow India to keep its options wide open when it comes to balancing its global affairs. New Delhi has remained neutral on the Russia-Ukraine war at international forums such as the United Nations despite pressures from the US-led West. New Delhi has done so because it has friends on both sides of the aisle. India has also volunteered to act as a bridge, if possible, between Russia and Ukraine. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India as a developing power also needs to ensure friendly relations with major powers like the United States, the European Union, China. However, it cannot sacrifice its relationship with Russia, which goes back decades, to do so. India is reliant on Russia for a lot more than oil. In fact much of India's military hardware still comes from Russia. The S-400 air defence system'. Reuters As Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has written, 'India was the world's second largest arms importer in 2020–24 with an 8.3 per cent share of global imports. Indian arms imports decreased by 9.3 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24, at least partly due to India's increasing ability to design and produce its own weapons.' Russia still comprises over a third of India's arm imports. Though India is buying more from Western suppliers particularly France, Israel and the United States, New Delhi possibly replacing Moscow a as a major arms supplier remains years away at best. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD This is a testament to the long and enduring relationship with Moscow going back to the 1960s when the United States was far more predisposed towards Pakistan. What do experts say? They say many in India remain a supporter of Russia – and with good reason. 'Many Indians still find Russia today, because of the history, a reliable partner,' Harsh V Pant of the Observer Research Foundation told The Times of India. 'Many in India believe that America has always been more favourably disposed towards Pakistan.' Indian diplomats such as Pankaj Saran and DB Venkatesh Varma said that the summit could be 'defining and potentially transformative'. 'It is a defining and potentially transformative summit for the world, specially for India. Our ties with both countries are integral to the success of our national development and security goals. India should extend its full support to the summit,' Saran said. 'The Alaska summit could prove to be a turning point at the global level and India has a vital interest in its success,' Verma added.
Economic Times
2 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Trump is aiming for Pakistan-style compliance from India, but his plan is not working
Synopsis Amidst rising tensions, the US-India trade relationship faces turbulence as Trump's administration imposes tariffs, allegedly to pressure India on geopolitical issues like Russian oil imports. India views these actions as an infringement on its sovereignty, resisting demands to compromise on agriculture, patent laws and military sourcing. India's refusal to play a compliant role, unlike Pakistan, frustrates Trump. "Trump wants a vessel like Pakistan. India refuses to behave like one." That blunt assessment from Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), captures the essence of the US-India trade saga: it's less about economics than geopolitics. While headlines focus on tariffs and trade deficits, the underlying story is about power, leverage and sovereignty. Speaking to Economic Times, Srivastava explains, "Washington expects compliance, and India is not yielding." Trump, who is set to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Friday at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, has long framed tariffs as a tool to 'fix trade deficits,' but India's case suggests a different motive. On August 7, the US announced it would raise tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50%, citing Delhi's purchase of Russian oil. India called the move 'unfair' and 'unjustified,' with the new rate set to take effect on August 27. The White House framed the tariffs as a way to cut Russia's energy revenues and pressure Vladimir Putin toward a ceasefire. With this increase, India becomes the most heavily taxed US trading partner in Asia, joining Brazil which faces similar steep tariffs amid tense bilateral relations. The economic stakes for India are high. In 2024, India exported $87 billion worth of goods to the US. According to US Census Bureau data for May 2025, imports from India stood at $9.43 billion, while US exports to India were $3.82 billion, resulting in a US goods trade deficit, or an Indian surplus, of roughly $5.6 billion. If the 50% tariffs remain in place, nearly all of India's annual exports to the US could become commercially unviable. Meanwhile, the US continues to run a $45.7 billion goods trade deficit with India, yet these tariffs disproportionately affect Indian exports compared with goods from other Srivastava, the message is clear: 'Trade deficit is just for the namesake. It's about forcing countries to fall in line with a geopolitical agenda.' India imports roughly 20% of its GDP in goods, spanning petroleum, machinery and electronics, yet Washington appears less concerned with trade imbalances than with pressuring India to compromise on and dairy have emerged as key sticking points in India-US trade talks, which collapsed earlier this month. On August 7, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared, 'India will never compromise on the well-being of its farmers, dairy producers and fishermen.' New Delhi has consistently resisted US pressure to open these sectors, arguing that doing so would threaten millions of small farmers. Historically, India has kept agriculture largely off the table in trade agreements to safeguard domestic to Srivastava, US demands extend far beyond tariffs: opening government procurement, diluting patent laws that could make medicines costlier, limiting future digital taxes, and shifting military sourcing to the US. 'Even if we open agri and dairy, no trade deal will happen with this. Not a trade issue. They want you to open your government procurement, dilute patent laws, commit to never charge digital tax in future, buy military from the US, the list is endless,' he adds, 'Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil partly over politics and partly because Brazil asked Twitter to remove anti-Brazil content. Records show India generates even more such requests, so he could use that as an excuse too. He can conjure unlimited reasons to impose tariffs if he's unhappy. My sense is he doesn't want a partner in India, he wants a vassal. India refuses to play that role; it insists on an equal partnership. That's the basic problem.'The US approach to Russian oil imports is uneven. China, Russia's largest crude buyer, faces no comparable tariff threats, while India is under heavy pressure. 'Even if the US demanded zero imports from Russia, India's imports would fall anyway due to economic circumstances,' notes Srivastava. European and US bans on petroleum products derived from Russian crude are already reducing India's imports, independent of Washington's selective approach reflects a broader pattern in US trade policy. Brazil, for example, faced a 50% tariff despite running a surplus with the US, largely over political disagreements including its stance on Venezuela and former President Bolsonaro. Venezuela itself is under secondary sanctions for buyers of its oil, though some firms, like Chevron, have received exemptions. These cases suggest that political alignment often outweighs economic between Russia and the US has dropped roughly 90% since the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, though last year the US still imported $3 billion worth of Russian goods, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau. Meanwhile, the European Union, a partner in sanctions against Russia, imported $41.9 billion (36 billion euros) of Russian goods in 2024, Eurostat data the US pressures India to cut Russian oil imports, market forces and global regulations are already reshaping trade flows. Europe and US bans on petroleum products ensure India's imports will decline regardless of Washington's actions. Srivastava cautions, however, that the US may find new reasons for tariffs, keeping India under continuous has built a buffer against such pressures. Exports constitute roughly 20% of GDP, compared with 90% for Vietnam, a country far more vulnerable to US-imposed shocks. 'Vietnam will suffer more. We will suffer, but we will absorb it properly. Country will bounce back. All we need to do is not to surrender,' Srivastava US consumers will also feel the impact of tariffs. About 90% of prescriptions in the US rely on generics imported from India. While the total trade value may be under $10 billion, disruption affects the majority of prescriptions, potentially raising prices significantly. Companies may eventually source alternatives over three to four months, but the immediate effect is inflationary.'Indian exports will suffer, but we need to consider whether it's better to endure this and use it to push delayed reforms, like diversifying exports, rather than falling into a bad deal. This isn't really about trade; it's about surrendering sovereignty,' Srivastava Srivastava, Trump's broader strategy is political theatre. 'Basically, he wanted to hit China. He couldn't, so he has to show his domestic voters that he is a big man, that a bully can show strength by hitting someone. He couldn't hit China, so let's hit India, that's the only thing.'With China, Trump launched a trade war over the large trade deficit, but Beijing hit back by restricting supplies of critical materials, he noted. 'India hasn't used those levers, which is why Washington expected Delhi to yield immediately.'India's refusal to play a compliant role, unlike Pakistan, frustrates Trump. At the same time, India maintains strategic autonomy, engaging with Russia on defence, limiting deep Chinese investment to marketing and distribution, and managing relations with the US on equal footing. 'We are a big country, big economy, and so we have to have workable, good relations with everyone, without being in anybody's camp,' Srivastava pre-Galwan, Chinese investment has been superficial. 'China doesn't invest in deep manufacturing. They will not supply any technology. They will invest in marketing of cars, garments, two, $5 billion here and there, but we don't want that. So we have to evaluate very carefully,' he says.'We can have targeted strategic relationships, like with Russia for defence, but moving closer to China is complicated. There's the border dispute and a $100 billion trade deficit,' he export-oriented economy, diversified supply chains and robust domestic market allow it to absorb short-term shocks while resisting long-term concessions. 'All we need to do is not enter into any relationship that costs us the medium or long term,' Srivastava takeaway is clear: Trump's tariffs are less about trade and more about leverage. Every tweet, every tariff threat, every demand is a political signal designed to demonstrate strength to domestic voters. 'Every day he abuses us on Twitter. That shows India has entered his mind,' Srivastava response emphasises sovereignty, resilience and strategic foresight. "Trade deal is not a trade deal. It's about bargaining for your sovereignty. And India is not bargaining."
Time of India
11 minutes ago
- Time of India
26th India-Russia Commission: EAM Jaishankar to visit Moscow, meet Sergey Lavrov, says MEA; to discuss trade amid US tariffs
File photo NEW DELHI: External affairs minister S Jaishankar is set to visit Moscow for the 26th India-Russia Commission and meet his counterpart Sergey Lavrov, the ministry of external affairs said on Thursday. The two leaders are expected to discuss trade amid additional tariffs being faced by India because of its continuous purchase of Russian oil. "EAM Dr S Jaishankar is expected to visit Moscow for the 26th session of the India-Russia intergovernmental commission on trade, economic, technological and cultural cooperation. This is to happen later this month. We will share with you further updates at the appropriate time," MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said. Lavrov on Wednesday informed that the two leaders would discuss the "key issues on our bilateral agenda, as well as key aspects of cooperation within international frameworks." This comes after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephonic conversation and reaffirmed the "commitment to further deepen the India-Russia Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership." Moreover, PM Modi also had a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy where the two leaders talked about "sanctions against Russia" and New Delhi's oil purchases. "We also talked in detail about sanctions against Russia. I noted that it is necessary to restrict the export of Russian energy resources, especially oil, to reduce its potential and ability to finance the continuation of this war. It is important that now every leader who has significant leverage over Russia sends appropriate signals to Moscow," Zelenskyy said.
