Why India is watching the Alaska summit closely

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As India prepares to celebrate its Independence Day, it is undoubtedly keeping its eye on the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska. But why does India have a stake in the successful outcome of the meeting between Putin and Trump? What do experts say?
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska tomorrow (August 15).
And India is watching closely.
As India prepares to celebrate its Independence Day, it is undoubtedly keeping its eye on the events that are occurring nearly 10,000 kilometers away in the last Frontier State.
But why does India have a stake in the successful outcome of the meeting between Putin and Trump?
Let's take a closer look:
New Delhi's position on the war
From the beginning of the Ukraine war in 2022, New Delhi has taken a consistent and pragmatic position – the war must end through dialogue and diplomacy.
This is a sentiment Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly voiced over the years. Perhaps none more memorably than in October 2022 on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand.
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Modi, meeting Putin, told the Russian president 'this is not the era of war'. 'I know that today's era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this', Modi said.
'We've spoken to you many times on the phone before on this, that democracy, diplomacy and dialogue — these things help the world. In the coming days, we will get the chance to talk about how to move on to the road to peace, I will also get the chance to better understand your viewpoint.'
Putin at the time responded, 'I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, the concerns that you constantly express. We will do everything to stop this as soon as possible.' Modi and India's message was even reflected in the declaration of the Bali G20 Summit in 2022.
Modi also conveyed a similar message to Putin during his trip to Russia in July 2024 – which came just after a Russian airstrike on a children's Hospital in Kyiv left over three dozen dead. Modi, addressing Putin as his dear friend, said peace is 'of utmost importance' and a solution to the war in Ukraine 'cannot be found on the battlefield'.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi has repeatedly voiced the sentiment that the war must end via dialogue and diplomacy.
'I know that war cannot solve problems, solutions and peace talks can't succeed among bombs, guns and bullets. And we need to find a way to peace through dialogue,' Modi said at the Kremlin.
'When innocent children are murdered, one sees them die, the heart pains and that pain is unbearable', he added. He repeated the message when he visited Poland last year for a two-day trip and met Indian diaspora.
Modi before the trip said he would 'share perspectives' on a peaceful resolution of the conflict. 'As a friend and partner, we hope for an early return of peace and stability in the region,' Modi said. He repeated 'this is not an era of war' and any conflict should be resolved through diplomacy and dialogue.
The Ministry of External Affairs also reiterated this message after news of the Trump-Putin summit emerged. 'As Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said on several occasions, 'This is not an era of war'', the MEA said.
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Opportunity to ease tensions with US
The Trump-Putin summit could also ease tensions between India and the United States over the purchase of Russian crude oil. Trump has imposed a 50 per cent tariff on India for its trade relationship with Russia and accused New Delhi of fuelling Russia's war in Ukraine.
India has hit back calling the levies 'unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.' New Delhi has also pointed out that prior to the war, India bought a fraction of its crude from Moscow and that it began doing so with US encouragement, which also kept the price of crude under control for the world. It also pointed to the hypocrisy of the United States and Europe continuing to trade with Russia. It has said it has placed the national interest above all else and will continue to do so. This was backed up by the Kremlin with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying, 'Sovereign countries should have and do have the right to choose their own trading partners.'
Trump has also ruled out further trade talks with India until the 'crude oil issue is resolved'. The development came in the backdrop of India and the United States trying to negotiate a trade deal. The United States has been pushing hard to for India to open up its sensitive dairy and agricultural sector. Senior US officials have said that Trump and the entire trade team are frustrated by New Delhi's insistence of a red line on agriculture.
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A Russian crude oil tanker transits the Bosphorus in Istanbul. Reuters
India's interest in a breakthrough in Alaska is clear. If Trump and Putin agreed to a ceasefire, the US-led West may roll back some sanctions on Russia. This in turn will help India, which is an important trading partner of Russia, to continue purchasing Russian oil.
India has saved billions over the past few years as it buys crude oil from Russia, which has been placed under a cap and not sanctioned by the West. Experts have said that India's crude oil bill could rise between $1.5 billion and $12 billion in the coming years if it stops buying Russian crude. They have warned that doing so would be 'logistically daunting, economically painful and geopolitically fraught'. 'The pivot away from Russia, if forced, will be costly, complex and politically fraught', data firm Kpler wrote.
Trade deal negotiations could restart
It will also relieve some pressure off Trump himself, who has seemingly grown frustrated with Putin in recent months. Trump came to office vowing to end the war 'within 24 hours'.
'We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth', Trump said in July. 'We're not happy with Putin. I'm not happy with Putin. I can tell you that much right now, because he's killing a lot of people.'
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Trump can tout any breakthrough in Alaska with Putin as a victory. He can roll back tariffs on India and allow the trade deal negotiations to restart.
US President Donald Trump and some of his officials from the administration have been pressuring India to forego its oil trade with Russia. File image/Reuters
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that several major trade deals, including those with Switzerland and India, remain pending, remarking that New Delhi had been 'a bit recalcitrant' in its negotiations with Washington. Bessent has said that the Trump administration hopes to conclude the trade negotiations by the end of October.
Modi, in his first response to Trump's move, has vowed never to compromise on the interests of India's farmers, even if it meant paying a heavy political price.
'Our farmers' welfare is paramount,' Modi said at an event in New Delhi. 'India will never compromise on the wellbeing of its farmers, dairy sector, or fishermen — and I know I may have to pay a heavy price for standing firm on this.'
Keeping options open, Russia relationship
A ceasefire or a peace deal in Alaska would allow India to keep its options wide open when it comes to balancing its global affairs.
New Delhi has remained neutral on the Russia-Ukraine war at international forums such as the United Nations despite pressures from the US-led West. New Delhi has done so because it has friends on both sides of the aisle. India has also volunteered to act as a bridge, if possible, between Russia and Ukraine.
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India as a developing power also needs to ensure friendly relations with major powers like the United States, the European Union, China. However, it cannot sacrifice its relationship with Russia, which goes back decades, to do so. India is reliant on Russia for a lot more than oil. In fact much of India's military hardware still comes from Russia.
The S-400 air defence system'. Reuters
As Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has written, 'India was the world's second largest arms importer in 2020–24 with an 8.3 per cent share of global imports. Indian arms imports decreased by 9.3 per cent between 2015–19 and 2020–24, at least partly due to India's increasing ability to design and produce its own weapons.'
Russia still comprises over a third of India's arm imports. Though India is buying more from Western suppliers particularly France, Israel and the United States, New Delhi possibly replacing Moscow a as a major arms supplier remains years away at best.
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This is a testament to the long and enduring relationship with Moscow going back to the 1960s when the United States was far more predisposed towards Pakistan.
What do experts say?
They say many in India remain a supporter of Russia – and with good reason.
'Many Indians still find Russia today, because of the history, a reliable partner,' Harsh V Pant of the Observer Research Foundation told The Times of India. 'Many in India believe that America has always been more favourably disposed towards Pakistan.'
Indian diplomats such as Pankaj Saran and DB Venkatesh Varma said that the summit could be 'defining and potentially transformative'.
'It is a defining and potentially transformative summit for the world, specially for India. Our ties with both countries are integral to the success of our national development and security goals. India should extend its full support to the summit,' Saran said.
'The Alaska summit could prove to be a turning point at the global level and India has a vital interest in its success,' Verma added.