Ukraine peace talks crumble
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After the purported 'Easter truce' fighting has resumed in Ukraine and Russia, meanwhile peace talks in the West have broken down with the US speaking to Russia separately.
Hannah Barnes is joined by Andrew Marr to discuss this week in UK politics, and later in the episode by Rachel Cunliffe and George Eaton to look at Reform UK's surging popularity ahead of the local elections.
Read: Can Reform grow up?, Steve Reed: 'Reform is a symptom of broken trust'
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South Wales Guardian
an hour ago
- South Wales Guardian
Sarwar says surprise by-election win could help Labour back to power at Holyrood
Mr Sarwar and his party celebrated in the early hours of Friday morning after Labour's Davy Russell was elected as the new MSP for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, winning the seat from the SNP. With the votes showing a swing of more than 7% from the SNP to Labour, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Friday the result showed people have 'voted for change'. The by-election had been held following the death earlier this year of Scottish Government minister Christina McKelvie. When the votes were counted, Mr Russell polled 8,559, SNP candidate Katy Loudon took 7,957 votes, while Reform's Ross Lambie secured 7,088. And although Mr Russell was elected with fewer votes than Labour secured in the seat in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, the SNP's support fell from just over 46% of all ballots then to 29.35% in the by-election. Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice insisting they were 'delighted' with coming third – despite speculation prior to the count that they could come in second or may even pull off a surprise victory. Labour's win came after Scotland's First Minister John Swinney – who made numerous campaign visits to the area – had declared the contest to be a 'two-horse race' between the SNP and Nigel Farage's Reform. But speaking at a media event in Hamilton on Friday morning, Mr Sarwar accused the SNP leader of running a 'disgraceful' campaign. Mr Sarwar also insisted the by-election could 'help lead the way' to him becoming Scotland's next first minister in the May 2026 Holyrood elections. The Scottish Labour leader said he believed the victory to be 'even more significant' than the party's win in the nearby Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election in October 2023 – which he said had been key in helping to secure Labour's general election win in July last year. Mr Sarwar declared: 'I think in some ways this by-election result is even more significant than the Rutherglen by-election result two years ago. 'It is right to say, I believe, the result in Rutherglen helped lead the way in helping to elect a UK Labour Government and I also believe the by-election result here will help lead the way to elect a Scottish Labour government next year.' Looking ahead to that election, Mr Sarwar told the PA news agency: 'I want us to gain scores of seats across the country so we can remove this SNP government from office.' He went on to accuse Mr Swinney of running a 'disgraceful campaign' in the by-election, saying that despite the SNP having been in power for 18 years, 'the best he had to offer was 'vote SNP to stop Farage''. And while Reform UK came in third in the by-election, Mr Sarwar said Mr Farage's party could not win the Scottish Parliament elections. He insisted: 'Nigel Farage is not standing to be first minister. 'It is a straight choice – it is either going to be John Swinney, or it's going to be me.' The Scottish Labour leader continued: 'The choice is stark next year. Our Parliament is not about protests, our election is not about protest, it is about choosing a government here in Scotland. 'The choice is stark – a third decade of the SNP with John Swinney as first minister or a new direction for Scotland with me as first minister.' However, Mr Tice told BBC Radio 4's that the result in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse was 'truly remarkable'. He said: 'We've come from nowhere to being in a three-way marginal, and we're within 750 votes of winning that by-election and just a few hundred votes of defeating the SNP, so it's an incredible result.' Mr Swinney, meanwhile, said the SNP was 'clearly disappointed' with the result. The party leader said Labour had 'won by an absolute landslide' in Rutherglen and Hamilton West – noting the SNP 'came much closer' this time round. But he added: 'The people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse have made clear that we still have work to do. 'Over the next few days, we will take time to consider the result fully.'
The Herald Scotland
4 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Reform is a serious political force in Scotland but Tories in trouble
Formerly a seat where the SNP could be confident of winning a substantial majority, Hamilton is now a marginal seat for the first time, with a Labour majority of just 602 votes over the SNP. Reform UK is clearly on the march in Scotland, and this result bears out the surge in support for the party seen in British-wide opinion polls so far this year, with over a quarter of voters who turned out in Hamilton casting their vote for the party. Read more It would be wrong to read too much into one by-election result. By-elections are unusual events, where governments tend to lose support, people may vote in protest and turnout is typically much lower than at Holyrood elections. Nonetheless, the result in Hamilton will matter to all Scotland's parties for its symbolic importance ahead of next May's Scottish Parliament elections. For Scottish Labour, this by-election win will help to reverse the recent narrative of Labour decline. Following the party's slump in the polls over the last 10 months, the result signals that Labour can still win in Scotland and will put wind back in the party's sails. It underlines that listening to and acting on voters' concerns can help to turn the party's fortunes around – Keir Starmer's announcement of a U-turn on cuts to the winter fuel payment may well have helped the party's popularity among voters in Hamilton. The win will also give the UK Labour Party a much-needed boost, after its heavy losses in parts of England at May's local elections, losing the Runcorn by-election to Reform UK and trailing 7 points behind Reform UK in the polls UK-wide. Nigel Farage is less popular in Scotland than he is in England (Image: free) The result is a major blow to the SNP, who were widely tipped to win the seat. While incumbent governments tend to suffer at by-elections, Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is the kind of central belt seat that the SNP will need to retain if it is to hold onto power in Scotland next May. This result is an early sign that that will be a tough contest. The SNP has topped recent national polls, with a double-digit lead over Scottish Labour – a remarkable position for a party that has been in power in Scotland for 18 years. This by-election will be an unwelcome reminder that voters' preferences can and do shift. While John Swinney is widely seen as having steadied the ship since his election as party leader last May – and is the least unpopular of any of the party leaders among voters – this result suggests more turbulent times may lie ahead for the SNP. Reform UK were the unknown quantity ahead of this by-election. Their performance in Hamilton, finishing less than 1,000 votes behind the SNP, proves that the party can attract significant swathes of voters north of the border as well as in England. The result emphasises that Reform UK are now a serious political force in Scotland. Ahead of the next Holyrood elections, the party has a real opportunity to paint itself as the home for voters who want change. While Nigel Farage is less popular in Scotland than he is in England, this does not appear to have been holding the party back in the polls – reflecting that the rise of Reform UK may be being driven by wider public dissatisfaction and the unpopularity of other parties more than by views of its leadership. The result signals continued gloom for the Conservatives in Scotland. While the party was widely expected to come fourth, this was a poor result for Russell Findlay's party, who managed to hang onto their deposit with 6% of the vote. Read more The pattern seen in recent Scotland polls of the Conservatives haemorrhaging voter support to Reform has been borne out at this by-election. On this evidence, the Conservatives have a mountain to climb if they are to convince Scottish voters to lend them their votes next May. Will the result in Hamilton turn out to be a sign of which way the electoral winds are blowing ahead of Holyrood elections next May? It certainly underlines that this is a time of volatility in Scottish politics and shifting voter preferences. While Anas Sarwar and his team will take heart from this win, Scottish Labour's fortunes are closely connected with those of the UK party. How Scotland's voters are feeling about the UK Government's performance under Keir Starmer's leadership is likely to be an important factor shaping voter support at the ballot box. If it is to take seats from the SNP next May, Scottish Labour needs to show those who voted for the UK party at the General Election because of issues like public services, the cost of living and inequality that they were right to do so. Emily Gray, Managing Director, Ipsos Scotland
Telegraph
5 hours ago
- Telegraph
Reform declares war on gold-plated public sector pensions
A Reform UK government would radically overhaul gold-plated public sector pensions to stop them bankrupting Britain. Richard Tice told The Telegraph he would put everything on the table and end the taxpayer 'rip off' if his party won the next general election. Reform's deputy leader said the party would consider moving all public sector employees out of their 'Rolls-Royce' pension plans and into the defined contribution schemes almost all private sector workers have. Britain currently hands £54bn a year to public sector retirees and another £35bn in pension contributions to current state workers, with both groups entitled to guaranteed, inflation-linked payments for life. It comes after Reform pledged to axe defined benefit council pensions, which a recent Telegraph investigation revealed now costs some local authorities more than half of what they raise in council tax. Britain currently has more than three million public sector pensioners, the vast majority of whom are retired NHS workers, teachers, civil servants and members of the armed forces. Their schemes are all unfunded, meaning the contributions that come in from employers and employees are immediately used to pay current retirees, rather than being prudently invested to pay future pensions. However, contributions have fallen short of the amounts paid out, with taxpayers funding a £49bn shortfall over the past decade alone. Historically, they also haven't covered the cost of new pension rights built up by current workers. John Ralfe, a pensions consultant, calculated that the shortfall between contributions and future pensions was £208bn between 2013-23 – and it will be met by current and future taxpayers. The system, which would be illegal in the private sector, has built up pension liabilities running into the trillions. Speaking to The Telegraph, Mr Tice said action was needed where successive governments had failed. He said: 'We've got to have these conversations over the next few years and wake people up as to why we're in such a financial mess. Public sector pay and benefits have soared and yet productivity has collapsed, and it's a catastrophe. 'I want to be honest with the country. I want to say, 'if we don't sort this out, this will be a major factor in the country going bankrupt'. It's that serious.' He also confirmed that Reform would consider moving every public sector worker into the type of defined contribution schemes that almost all private sector workers are members of. He added: 'Everything has got to be on the table. The old rule was that public pay was less than the private sector because they had a more generous pension scheme, but successive governments have lifted pay in the public sector and therefore the old deal is no longer valid. 'Bluntly, there's been a failure to be honest about this. The public sector has pulled the wool over the eyes of the taxpayer. We're going to talk about it for the next four years: that taxpayers are being ripped off and it can't go on.' Last week, Mr Tice said that Reform-controlled councils would stop offering the generous pension scheme to new employees and reduce pay rises for existing workers to balance out the cost of funding their retirements. The Local Government Pension Scheme, the largest funded scheme in the UK, already spends £15bn a year on paying pensions across Britain. A recent Telegraph investigation uncovered five local authorities that stuff more than half of their council tax into staff pension pots. Another 19 fork out more than a third, while 60 spend more than a fifth on funding the generous schemes. It came after a series of Telegraph revelations about the cost of public sector pensions. Last year, we calculated that Britain's current bill was £4.9 trillion, with each household on the hook for £173,000. In October, we reported that another £20bn would be added to taxpayer-funded pension payouts after they rose another 1.7pc following September's inflation figure. Last month, we showed how the latest public sector pay rise would cost another £1bn in pension contributions alone. We also revealed how taxpayers have been handed extra pension bills of £45bn for Royal Mail, £1.7bn for the Environment Agency and more than £300m for retired train drivers. Switching public sector workers to defined contribution pensions could send the taxpayer's annual bill plummeting to around £4.5bn, saving almost £28bn a year, calculations have shown. However, Barry McKay, of pensions firm Barnett Waddingham, warned it would be difficult to make the change. He said: 'If you move to defined contribution, those contributions paid by existing workers would go into a pot somewhere to be invested and grow for the benefit of each worker, but in doing so there would be no money coming in to pay existing pensions. 'The Treasury would have to find a huge amount of money to pay the existing pensioners from somewhere else, because they don't have the contribution income any more. That leaves a massive hole in the Treasury accounts.' He added: 'There is a problem that we're effectively stuck with defined benefit.' Neil Record, a pensions expert and former Bank of England economist, said: 'The only practical solution to public sector pensions' increasingly intolerable burden on taxpayers is for the Government to offer a cash alternative, as an option, to all public sector employees. 'My guess is that in return for an approximately 30pc pay rise, most public sector employees would choose to give up accruing new pension rights as long as their existing rights were fully honoured.'
