UFC Atlanta predictions, odds, full card picks: What does Kamaru Usman have left?
ATLANTA — The last time the UFC visited the state of Georgia, for 2019's UFC 236 pay-per-view, the world witnessed two of the greatest fights of all time — back-to-back.
That's a big ask to replicate for UFC Atlanta this Saturday. Still, the Fight Night event marks the return of a big name when former welterweight champion and erstwhile pound-for-pound king Kamaru Usman takes on surging contender Joaquin Buckley. Usman can snap a three-fight skid in what will be his first fight since October 2023, while Buckley hunts for his seventh straight win and first over an ex-champion.
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The co-main event also features a former champion, as two-time strawweight titlist Rose Namajunas makes her first appearance of 2025 against Miranda Maverick. Overall, UFC Atlanta delivers solid name value throughout and has pretty fan-friendly matchups.
👑 UFC Atlanta's lineup Crown grade: B-. 👑
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Joaquin Buckley is on the ascent through the 170-pound ranks. (Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images)
(USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect / Reuters)
170 pounds: Kamaru Usman (+225) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-285)
We've reached that weird spot with Usman. You know the one. The spot where a legendary fighter has lost more than they've won in recent memory, but the losses were against the highest caliber of opposition possible. Then, to add further question marks, they took a year-and-a-half-long layoff.
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Who exactly is going to show up against Buckley on Saturday night? A 38-year-old "Nigerian Nightmare," that's who.
If one thing has been most telling about where Usman is at this stage, and for this matchup specifically, it's the Leon Edwards trilogy fight. As forgotten as it may have become, the former champion had plenty of success in that fight. However, that was mostly due to his clinch work; his speed and takedown success declined significantly from the previous fight. Much didn't change against Khamzat Chimaev in the following fight at middleweight, and Usman's late success was arguably more thanks to Chimaev slowing down after he completely dominated the first round.
Although Usman is historically a significantly better striker than Colby Covington, Buckley's last win against "Chaos" really told us all we need to know about this Usman clash and how it will go. Buckley is a powerhouse in every facet of the game, so if Usman can't get on top, this should look very similar to the Covington fight — maybe just with less "panic wrestling."
Pick: Buckley
125 pounds: Rose Namajunas (-250) vs. Miranda Maverick (+200)
It's a bold prediction out of the gate to have Usman fall to Buckley. Why? Because when Usman and Namajunas fight on the same event, they've produced incredible performances to go undefeated in those three instances together.
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Unfortunately for the duo, the streak will be snapped, but not for "Thug."
Namajunas, 32, isn't the same fighter she was when she was at her best in the strawweight division. Regardless, she's still supremely talented and a top 10 flyweight capable of turning back rising stars like Tracy Cortez. In Maverick, Namajunas will have the opportunity to do the same thing.
Erin Blanchfield didn't necessarily crack the code on how to beat and best nullify Namajunas, but she utilized the blueprint and did her best to smother and wrestle her way to a victory. That's not to say Namajunas has a wrestling deficiency. Quite the opposite. It's just that when relentlessly pressured and not given space to breathe, she suffers the most.
Maverick is a well-rounded fighter who is happy to fight anywhere, but with the familiarity both have with each other, having trained together, Namajunas will be further prepared for any tricks or approaches that can be taken. She's a good wrestler in her own right, but Maverick isn't the caliber of a controlling force like, let's say, a Blanchfield or Namajunas' old rival, Carla Esparza.
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Expect the former champion to comfortably pick apart Maverick en route to a decision win.
Pick: Namajunas
185 pounds: Edmen Shahbazyan (-185) vs. Andre Petroski (+150)
Edmen Shahbazyan appears to be on the matchmaking trajectory he should have stayed on from the start of his UFC career in 2018.
Unlike Usman, we know what we're getting with Shahbazyan. The guy is nonstop violence from the moment the bell sounds, seeking the knockout however it may come. Petroski has been a bit of the anti-Shahbazyan in that regard as of late, with his last five wins via decision. Unfortunately for Petroski, his three losses have all been via knockout, and the recent two were highlights for Michel Pereira and Jacob Malkoun.
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Shahbazyan is just too much of an aggressive force, which is the type of fighter Petroski should fold under.
Pick: Shahbazyan
Cody Garbrandt is still trying to salvage any semblance of his former championship self. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
135 pounds: Cody Garbrandt (+165) vs. Raoni Barcelos (-200)
From brutal losses to injuries, Cody Garbrandt has seen better days since his time as the UFC bantamweight champion in 2017.
Garbrandt last fought when he famously kicked off the UFC 300 event against former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in April 2024. Unfortunately for "No Love," he met his demise via a second-round rear-naked choke on the night before a booking against Miles Johns fell through in October. Garbrandt withdrew, and now he's in Atlanta with a chance to rebound against the Brazilian veteran, Raoni Barcelos.
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Barcelos, 38, hasn't exactly been a model of activity, but his last time out was a major highlight because of its upset nature, handing super prospect Payton Talbott his first loss. Barcelos is just a technically savvy machine who never quite goes away. Garbrant will need to put him away and has the power to shut anyone's lights out, especially one of the older bantamweights on the roster, if not the oldest.
This is one of those matchups where the image of Garbrandt getting his hand raised shouldn't feel too fantastical. It's just a case of Barcelos having more ways to win and a more diversified approaches to win.
Pick: Barcelos
185 pounds: Mansur Abdul-Malik (-800) vs. Cody Brundage (+550)
I'm going against the Cody's at UFC Atlanta, but for good reason.
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Cody Brundage is going to have his work cut out for him, much more than Garbrandt. The entire MMA world knows that Mansur Abdul-Malik is just a truck, and he's run over anyone in his way. At 27, Abdul-Malik is the danger at middleweight, and Brundage is about to get hurt.
The 11-fight UFC vet is going to need to survive some of the damage headed his way, then work his way to a submission on the mat. Possible, sure. Likely? Not at all.
Pick: Abdul-Malik
205 pounds: Alonzo Menifield (+500) vs. Oumar Sy (-700)
Alonzo Menifield has quietly been in the UFC for the better part of the past decade, and finds himself now in a bit of a sacrificial litmus test.
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Oumar Sy is a cannon, somewhat similarly to Abdul-Malik. And while it feels like the comparisons between those fights are present, Menifield presents much more of a threat with his power than Brundage, which makes the odds a surprise. Menifield has a puncher's chance against anyone, but before his latest victory over a short-notice Julius Walker in Seattle, Menifield took serious damage in losses to Carlos Ulberg and Azamat Murzakanov.
This fight could be a bunch of little car crashes with clinch breaks between them before an inevitable knockout. Career-wise, Sy just has much more left to give than Menifield, and we'll see that encapsulated when they collide.
Pick: Sy
If you remember Kris Moutinho, you know ball. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
Preliminary Notes
OK, everyone. Kris Moutinho is back, and he's one of the biggest underdogs you'll ever see in a professional sports contest.
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In a double short-notice bantamweight banger, Moutinho meets Georgia's Malcolm Wellmaker. The undefeated 9-0 Wellmaker is rightfully a bright prospect in the division. Over the years, however, one thing I've learned many a time is how, outside of extreme exceptions, no prospect should ever be as large of a favorite as -2000. This fight has the perfect storyline for the MMA Gods to exploit with a ridiculous upset.
Moutinho infamously gets pummeled out of the UFC by Sean O'Malley and Guido Cannetti before rattling off five straight finishes to get another shot in the promotion — and he wins it as a colossal underdog? Yeah. Let's get crazy.
As for other notables, I have to shout out Ricky Simon after scoring one of the best knockouts of 2025 when he fought in February.
Quick picks:
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Rodolfo Bellato (-425) def. Paul Craig (+325)
Michael Chiesa (-350) def. Court McGee (+275)
Kris Moutinho (+1000) def. Malcolm Wellmaker (-2000)
Jose Ochoa (-190) def. Cody Durden (+155)
Ricky Simon (-525) def. Cameron Smotherman (+380)
Ange Loosa (-135) def. Phil Rowe (+110)
Vanessa Demopoulos (+400) def. Jamey-Lyn Horth (-550)
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