Analysts: War threatens Thai economy

Bangkok Post

13 hours ago

Amonthep Chawla, chief economist at CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT), said even though tensions have eased, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East remain a threat to the Thai economy, in addition to US President Donald Trump's tariffs and the border dispute with Cambodia.
"The risk premium remains high and it is highly unlikely global oil prices will drop significantly to below US$60 a barrel," he said.
"The market should take a wait and see stance on how the situation develops."
Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research), shared a similar view that the Iran-Israel conflict would not end quickly.
The think tank projects global oil prices hovering in a range of $80-90 per barrel in the second half of 2025, at times shooting up to $100.
"This fluctuation could possibly lift Thai inflation by 0.3% in the latter half of the year," noted K-Research.
Suwat Sinsadok, managing director of Globlex Securities, said the US joining Israel's war with Iran is clearly driven by Trump's fear that rising oil prices could make US inflation soar.
"The US has pumped more shale oil to serve domestic demand, but this amount remains inadequate. As a consequence, the US needs to import oil and rising oil prices will make its inflation rise," he said.
In Mr Suwat's view, Iran clearly does not want the fighting to last long, but it also wants to hurt Israel as much as possible.
"Iran is confident it has an edge and high capacity in fighting with Israel, so it keeps attacking its infrastructure such as ports," he said.
"I believe Iran will continue to damage Israel to a certain level before it agrees to enter peace talks brokered by the US."
Pichai Lertsupongkit, chief commercial officer at InnovestX Securities, said the sharp uptick of global oil prices pushed the price of listed companies to surge substantially, and is likely to affect export-oriented companies on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
The brokerage is likely to downgrade the SET index target for 2025 if the Middle East conflict pushes the oil price to $90 per barrel, he said.
Iran's Fars News Agency said Trump's ceasefire announcement was false and intended to divert public attention from an attack on a US base in Qatar.
Polymarket, a decentralised prediction market platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of real-world events, sees only a 17% probability Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, down from a 60% peak.
Notably, 38% of oil flowing through the strait goes to China, which is Iran's ally, while only 3% goes to the US.