Active, above-average 2025 hurricane season on the way, Colorado State University says
DOTHAN, Ala. (WDHN) — Colorado State University released their annual outlook today ahead of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, and another potentially busy season is on the way.
CSU is predicting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
An 'average' season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), which means the 2025 hurricane season would be above average.
Factors influencing this forecast include warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean's subtropical eastern region and near-average temperatures in the Main Development Region. ENSO-neutral conditions will likely persist.
Hurricanes need warm sea-surface temperatures (At least 80 degrees) that extend down to 200 feet below the surface. An active West African Monsoon means more tropical waves emerge from Africa and trek across the Atlantic, which will eventually form into named storms.
ENSO-neutral conditions mean that near-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean should not impart significant wind shear over the Atlantic. Wind shear, which is a change in wind direction and speed aloft, can rip apart developing storms.
In terms of how the season might behave, we turn to 'analog' years, which are those that displayed similar sea surface temperatures, steering currents, and configurations of high and low pressure systems.
CSU writes that potential analogs for 2025 include 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017. These seasons ranged from El Nino (less active) to La Nina (more active). They also featured various outcomes along the Gulf Coast. While 1996 and 2006 were largely free of any major impacts, 2008 (Gustav and Ike) and 2017 (Harvey, Irma and Nate) were the exact opposites.
While the overall activity does not forecast specific landfall hotspots or potential impacts to any specific area, it only takes one storm to be a significant season.
Still, CSU notes there is an above-average chance of landfalling major hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea and anywhere along the United States coastline.
CSU has been issuing seasonal forecasts for 42 years, and has become known for their accuracy in devising predictions. They will issue new outlooks on June 11, July 9 and August 6.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
Bryan Norcross: Hurricane season to continue on pause for a while
Updated at 12:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, June 11, 2025 The atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic continues to be hostile to tropical development. High pressure, which is often sprawled across the Atlantic, has persistently nosed well into the Gulf. That high has blocked any tropical systems from turning north and caused persistent dry weather across Florida. Occasional disturbances have moved off Africa and through the tropical moisture belt south of the high-pressure system, as we expect this time of year. However, the unusual breadth and strength of the high has directed systems with the potential to develop into the Eastern Pacific. Two storms have already formed and another is likely. The second factor keeping the Atlantic quiet is Saharan dust. The flow around the high-pressure system has opened a persistent channel for the dusty air to spread west into the Caribbean and occasionally to Florida and into the Gulf. Artificial Intelligence Among New Tech Shaping Forecasts During 2025 Hurricane Season The ocean water temperatures across the tropical Atlantic between the Caribbean and Africa have returned to normal this year after two years of being extremely warm. That means that, unlike last year, no storms are unlikely to form east of the Caribbean until the water warms up later in the hurricane season. Water temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf are always warm enough for tropical development, and this year they are even warmer than normal. A disturbance has to trigger a system to organize, however, and the dust and the storm track into the Pacific have kept the lid on any development. Computer forecast models, including the new AI models, are showing a slight chance that something might develop in the far western Gulf next week, but the chances are very low. Until the sprawling high-pressure system breaks down, tropical development is unlikely. The odds favor the Atlantic staying quiet through next week, at least. The delayed start to the hurricane season is not unusual. About a third of the time since 1950, the first Atlantic storm was named after June 15. And it's important to note that the eventual busyness of the hurricane season is not related to how it starts. In 2004, which was a gangbuster year with four hurricanes impacting Florida, the first storm to get a name in the tropics was Bonnie, and that wasn't until August 9. Alex formed on August 1, but in the far North Atlantic. So that wasn't related to the season's tropical developments. All indications are that this hurricane season will get busy once it gets going. Researchers at Colorado State University updated their seasonal prediction today but did not change their numbers from their April forecast. They are still calling for 17 named storms, 9 of them hurricanes, with 4 of them reaching Category 3 or above. Updated 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Maintains Above-average Predictions Fueled By Warm Ocean Temps Hurricane season forecasts are issued by a variety of companies and agencies around the world. They all predict a similar outcome to the CSU numbers - average to slightly above average activity. But the CSU team acknowledges that the forecast is more uncertain this year than normal. If the tropical Atlantic warms up before the peak of the season, or a hurricane-supporting La Niña develops in the Pacific this fall, none of us will be surprised. For now, enjoy the article source: Bryan Norcross: Hurricane season to continue on pause for a while
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
2025 hurricane season: Colorado State researchers still expect 17 named storms this year
Colorado State University researchers, in an update to their hurricane season outlook, said Wednesday that the forecast remains the same: You can expect an estimated 17 named storms this year, with nine of them becoming hurricanes. Of the nine predicted hurricanes, CSU researchers believe four could hit major hurricane strength, which means achieving sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Above-average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea is primarily what's to blame for the higher-than-normal expected number of hurricanes as a main fuel source for intense storms is warm ocean water. However, CSU researchers also noted 'more uncertainty' with the June forecast due to the climate signals — the sea-surface temperatures — being somewhat weaker this year than last. 'So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 and 2021,' Phil Klotzbach, a CSU senior research scientist, said in a statement. 'While the average of our analog seasons had above-average levels of activity, the relatively large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the uncertainty associated with this outlook.' This year's forecast is tamer than 2024's forecast when CSU researchers predicted an 'extremely active' season with 11 hurricanes. Temperatures in the Atlantic were very hot in June of last year at 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. But since January of this year, winds have been blowing across the Atlantic fairly strongly, Klotzbach said, which means the water won't be as hot. Klotzbach compared it to exiting a swimming pool on a windy day: 'You're cold and in a hurry because of all the evaporational cooling,' he said. The consensus about this year's forecast generally appears to be similar, Klotzbach said. CSU looks at other entities' predictions too, and most tend to be at or above average, according to the seasonal hurricane predictions data made in conjunction with Barcelona Supercomputing Center. 'On average most groups are (predicting) somewhere between eight and nine hurricanes,' Klotzbach said. 'There's really nobody going super gangbusters.' And even though hurricane season has already begun, the major hurricanes are not likely to hit until the period between August and October, Klotzbach said. CSU first released its hurricane season forecast in April and will again release updates in July and August. Klotzbach emphasized how the forecasts are informational tools and not meant to teach people exactly how to prepare. 'The forecast could be woefully wrong, maybe it's a super quiet season. but even if we can forecast exactly the number of storms, we can't tell you where they're going to go,' he said.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
2025 hurricane season: Colorado State researchers still expect 17 named storms this year
Colorado State University researchers, in an update to their hurricane season outlook, said Wednesday that the forecast remains the same: You can expect an estimated 17 named storms this year, with nine of them becoming hurricanes. Of the nine predicted hurricanes, CSU researchers believe four could hit major hurricane strength, which means achieving sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Above-average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea is primarily what's to blame for the higher-than-normal expected number of hurricanes as a main fuel source for intense storms is warm ocean water. However, CSU researchers also noted 'more uncertainty' with the June forecast due to the climate signals — the sea-surface temperatures — being somewhat weaker this year than last. 'So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 and 2021,' Phil Klotzbach, a CSU senior research scientist, said in a statement. 'While the average of our analog seasons had above-average levels of activity, the relatively large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the uncertainty associated with this outlook.' This year's forecast is tamer than 2024's forecast when CSU researchers predicted an 'extremely active' season with 11 hurricanes. Temperatures in the Atlantic were very hot in June of last year at 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. But since January of this year, winds have been blowing across the Atlantic fairly strongly, Klotzbach said, which means the water won't be as hot. Klotzbach compared it to exiting a swimming pool on a windy day: 'You're cold and in a hurry because of all the evaporational cooling,' he said. The consensus about this year's forecast generally appears to be similar, Klotzbach said. CSU looks at other entities' predictions too, and most tend to be at or above average, according to the seasonal hurricane predictions data made in conjunction with Barcelona Supercomputing Center. 'On average most groups are (predicting) somewhere between eight and nine hurricanes,' Klotzbach said. 'There's really nobody going super gangbusters.' And even though hurricane season has already begun, the major hurricanes are not likely to hit until the period between August and October, Klotzbach said. CSU first released its hurricane season forecast in April and will again release updates in July and August. Klotzbach emphasized how the forecasts are informational tools and not meant to teach people exactly how to prepare. 'The forecast could be woefully wrong, maybe it's a super quiet season. but even if we can forecast exactly the number of storms, we can't tell you where they're going to go,' he said.
