Why the Mets didn't add to starting rotation at trade deadline

New York Times

3 days ago

The last time a New York Mets starting pitcher other than David Peterson completed six innings was on June 7.
Yet Thursday's trade deadline passed without the Mets adding to their starting rotation.
Instead, the Mets prioritized relief help, acquiring lefty Gregory Soto and right-handers Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley without sacrificing from the top of their farm system. The bullpen, led by closer Edwin Díaz, looks formidable.
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The rotation, which features Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas and Peterson — who, to his credit, has logged at least six innings in four straight starts — looks exactly the same.
The Mets probably took such a direction for a few reasons: the lack of availability of quality starting pitchers in the market, the prospect cost to get who was available and the growing ability these days to win the World Series behind a strong bullpen.
Several high-ranking executives entered the weeks and days leading up to the trade deadline wondering if an ace-caliber starter would even exist in the market.
The best starting pitcher who ended up getting traded was Merrill Kelly, who went to the Texas Rangers from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for three prospects: Left-hander Kohl Drake (Rangers' No. 5 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline), lefty Mitch Bratt (No. 9) and right-hander David Hagaman (No. 13). No other big-name starting pitchers moved. Kelly will be a free agent at the end of the season.
No Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins). No Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins). No Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks). Contenders such as the Mets, New York Yankees, and San Diego Padres loaded up their bullpens.
Just as an example of the market, two high-ranking officials from rival teams said the cost for acquiring Alcantara, who's under contract through 2026 with a club option in 2027, was two top-five prospects, plus something else. Using the Mets as a guide, that meant two from the group of Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, Jonah Tong, Carson Benge and Jett Williams, plus another player.
Would it have been worth it? Sticking with the Alcantara example, he is coming off surgery and though his results have been better recently, he has had an uneven season with rival teams wondering about his workload moving forward after missing all of last season. This isn't just about Alcantara. Other pitchers at the top of this market also had warts.
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'There are multiple ways to build a pitching staff,' Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said. 'We focused on the back end of the pitching staff, the bullpen. We're really happy with the arms we were able to acquire who are going to pitch out of our pen. And we have confidence, not only in the starters who are here, who we think are going to keep us competitive and help us win games, we are also pleased with the development of how some of the guys in Triple A are progressing.'
If the Mets were going to acquire a starter, it was likely going to have to be someone they viewed as part of their playoff rotation. In Peterson, Manaea and Senga, the Mets probably have three playoff starters. Teams in the past have used a combination of starters and relievers to get through other games. Senga is coming off of a pair of poor starts. Manaea looked better in his last start but was still operating with limitations after missing most of the season. The upside of their rotation relies on Senga and Manaea being healthy and productive.
If Senga and Manaea are who the Mets expect them to be, then the issue the Mets face in the rotation isn't about quality at the top. It's about logging enough innings and winning enough games to make the postseason without overloading the freshly revamped bullpen they just created.
For the most part, the schedule works out in the Mets' favor; there are only two months left of the regular season. But the Mets will encounter a stretch of 16 straight games, starting in the middle of August. And either way, constantly getting fewer than five innings from starters by accident is not going to help. In particular, the Mets may need more from Holmes, the former late-inning reliever well beyond his previous career-high in innings, who hasn't completed six innings in a start since June 7.
'Clay, from a physical standpoint, is in really good shape, and I think the stuff, for the most part, has still been there,' Stearns said. 'We gotta get a little deeper into games. Clearly, Clay knows that. He's working hard to do that, and I think we'll be able to see it.'
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The Mets didn't do much of any shopping for depth starters in part because they include Sproat and McLean as possible options if and when necessary. They're confident in both pitchers, but neither of them has ever pitched in the major leagues. It wouldn't be shocking to eventually see the Mets use either pitcher in a piggyback role, which would allow someone like Holmes to pitch less than six innings by design. The Mets don't seem committed to such a path quite yet.
Thus, after surveying the landscape and considering all the factors, the Mets saw building an impressive bullpen as their best bet to their first World Series since 1986. It worked for the Los Angeles Dodgers last year. They rode their bullpen — going through the Mets in the process — throughout the playoffs. It may work for the Mets, too. They just need to get there first.
(Photo of Merrill Kelly: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images)