Is Latino support for Trump cracking?
A key part of President Trump's 2024 victory was his performance among Latino voters. According to exit polling, Trump won 46 percent of the Latino vote in November. This is a substantial improvement over his 2020 Latino vote share of 32 percent. Clearly, Trump's performance among Latino voters was one of the critical factors in his victory — and could even permanently change the face of American politics.
Recent nationwide polling by the Democratic group Data for Progress, in partnership with Equis, offers some interesting clues to Latino voters' perceptions of Trump's second term. The research finds that only 38 percent of Latino voters approve of Trump's performance in office, as opposed to the 44 percent who voted for him. This six-point gap has to concern the White House.
Significantly, the Data for Progress-Equis research finds that those Latino voters who voted for Biden in 2020 but then defected to Trump in 2024 now disapprove of Trump's job performance by a margin of 51 to 46. Latino voters now trust Democrats over Republicans on the cost of living by 15 points and on the economy by 9 points.
The immigration issue may be hurting Trump with Latino voters. 66 percent of Latino voters agree that 'actions are going too far and targeting the types of immigrants who strengthen our nation.' Furthermore, just under three of four Latinos believe mass deportations will 'tear families apart, many of whom have been in the U.S. for a long time' (73 percent agree, 53 percent strongly) and will 'unfairly impact undocumented immigrants who are law-abiding members of society, work hard and pay taxes' (71 percent agree, 52 percent strongly). On the other side of the coin, an overwhelming 86 percent of Latino voters are in favor of deporting violent criminals.
It is important to put the immigration issue in context. 16 percent of Latino voters see immigration as the most important national issue, while almost twice as many put the economy and jobs as most important.
Looking ahead to the 2026 midterms, 53 percent say they will back the Democratic candidate for Congress while just 34 percent say they will back the GOP candidate. When asked what political party they felt closer to, 39 percent said Democrats, 28 percent said Republicans and 30 percent said neither.
The data presents a nuanced portrait of Latino voters that is often lacking. They see the economy as the top issue even while they have some significant concerns about Trump's immigration policies. When it comes to the midterms, Latino voters are tilting towards the Democrats, but there are very few signs of real enthusiasm for the Democratic Party.
We must put these findings into some historical context. According to New York Times exit polling, in 2012 Mitt Romney won just 21 percent of the Latino vote. Over the last dozen years, Latino voters have been drifting towards the Republicans, but the data indicates that there are now vulnerabilities in Trump's job performance ratings among them.
Democrats may have a real opportunity with Latino voters. The question is will they be able to take advantage of it. A mistake Democrats should not make is to assume that Latino voters will make their electoral decisions solely on immigration. The evidence is clear that while Latinos are concerned by Trump's immigration policies, the economy is still the dominate issue.
Martin Burns, a Democratic campaigner for former Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, has worked as a congressional aide, journalist and lobbyist.
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