Here's MMAmania.com's UFC Vegas 109 betting odds ‘Weekend Lock' … what's yours?

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20 hours ago

UFC Vegas 109 is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Aug. 9, 2025) inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In UFC Vegas 109's main event, No. 9-ranked Roman Dolidze collides with the promotion's No. 10-seeded Middleweight dark horse, Anthony Hernandez, in what should be a chaotic scrap.
We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called 'Weekend Lock,' where we share one bet that we predict will slap in 'Sin City' when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that's you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Vegas 109 betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Vegas 109 odds here).
Last week's recap: Our UFC Vegas 108 lock cashed in style as Esteban Ribovics took care of business against Elves Brener via unanimous decision (obviously cruising past the over 1.5 mark) in an all-out dogfight that culminated with a hospital transport.
Let's keep on, keeping on below:
I'm sticking with the main event for UFC Vegas 109's Weekend Lock, and I'm not getting cute — I'm snagging Hernandez's current moneyline, which is -325.
Hernandez is one of the most relentless grinders in UFC. His cardio is weaponized — the type that breaks opponents mentally before it breaks them physically. He's riding a five-fight win streak, with four of those coming via finish, including a career-defining submission over decorated grappler, Rodolfo Vieira (re-live that here), and a career-altering beatdown of Michael Pereira (Yes, it was that bad).
'Fluffy' blends suffocating pressure with clean boxing combinations, slick takedown entries and a smothering top game that forces mistakes.
Dolidze is a powerhouse with legit knockout power and sneaky submissions, but he tends to slow down when opponents push a high pace. And that's Hernandez's specialty. Expect him to crowd Dolidze from the opening bell, dragging the fight into deep waters where his opponent's explosiveness starts to fade. If Hernandez gets on top, his positional awareness and suffocating ground-and-pound should pile up damage — and likely the win.
To put it bluntly, all 'Fluffy' needs to do is stay away from Dolidze's power and he's good to. Dolidze does have impressive BJJ(that he hardly uses), but if Vieira was unable to tap Hernandez or even have him in a ton of trouble, the Georgian shouldn't, either.
Yes, -325 is chalk, but it's the kind of chalk that's going to cash, and can be slotted into a parlay if that's what you want to do. I almost went with Hernandez To Win By Decision, which is +135, but who knows, maybe the cardio king at Middleweight will be the first person to stop Dolidze.
Dolidze is a wild card.
He's an opportunistic finisher who thrives in scrambles and chaos. If Hernandez overextends or gets too aggressive early, Dolidze has the horsepower to turn the fight on a dime. Indeed, one clean shot or sudden sweep could flip the script entirely.
For what it's worth, this X/Twitter user is riding with Hernandez as well:
Roman Dolidze To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +500
Roman Dolidze To Win By Submission: +1200
Roman Dolidze To Win By Decision: +900
Draw: +5000
Anthony Hernandez To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +350
Anthony Hernandez To Win By Submission: +225
Anthony Hernandez To Win By Decision: +185
LIVE! Stream UFC Vegas 109 On ESPN+
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to its APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Aug. 9, 2025, with UFC Vegas 109. That's where No. 8-ranked Middleweight contender, Roman Dolidze, clashes with No. 10-seeded Anthony Hernandez in a high-stakes main event showdown scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Vegas 109's co-main event, former Flyweight title challenger, Steve Erceg, takes on Ode Osbourne, with both fighters looking to climb the 125-pound rankings.Don't miss a single second of face-punching action!
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