Syria's unity should be off Israel's gambling table

Arab News

5 days ago

https://arab.news/wfen8
In the aftermath of Israel's recent strikes on Damascus and destabilizing actions in Sweida, former British spy chief Sir John Sawers offered a sobering assessment: 'What Israel is looking for, I think, is a fragmented Syria — one which is weak and divided. That's a miscalculation … I don't think Israeli actions were at all helpful.' His words, delivered to CNN, cut through the fog of war and exposed a dangerous regional gamble.
Sawers is right. The notion that Syria's internal tensions — particularly those involving various sects and tribal factions — are marginal or containable is a delusion. The breakup of Syria would be far more catastrophic than the disintegration of Yugoslavia. But the solution surely is for regional and international players to promote and enable national unity and cohesion; not bomb or attack the newly formed government as it tries to contain a situation.
Syria is not just a country; it is a geopolitical keystone. Its collapse would send tremors through Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and even the Gulf. The region cannot afford another failed state, especially one that borders Israel, Turkiye and Iraq.
This is precisely why moderate and reasonable actors in the region — led by Saudi Arabia — have stepped in swiftly and decisively. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's phone call to Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa was more than a diplomatic gesture; it was a signal of strategic alignment. Riyadh followed up by sending a delegation of high-ranking Saudi businessmen to Damascus, underscoring its commitment to Syria's reconstruction and reintegration into the Arab fold. The Saudi steps are aligned with its longstanding tradition of supporting the reigning government regardless of its religious leadership, be it Sunni-led in Syria, a Maronite one in Lebanon or even a Shiite one in Iran when Israel illegally violated its territorial sovereignty.
Turkiye and the US also moved quickly — and rightly — to support the new Syrian government, recognizing that stability in Damascus is a prerequisite for regional peace. Washington, in particular, played a key role in brokering a ceasefire between militias and tribal factions in Sweida, helping to contain what could have spiraled into a full-blown civil war.
The best antidote to Israel's destabilizing provocations is not retaliation — it is to go on with the reforms. Syria's new leadership understands this. Since taking office in December, President Al-Sharaa has made all the right moves: dissolving extremist factions, launching a national dialogue conference, and initiating constitutional reforms. But no one said rebuilding a country after 50 years of brutal dictatorship would be easy.
Gambling with Syria's unity is not blackjack. It is Russian roulette. And the bullet does not just threaten Syria — it threatens the entire region.
Faisal J. Abbas | Editor-in-Chief
Spoilers — those who thrived under the old regime — are beginning to push back. Mistakes by enforcers of the government will naturally be made, and they will be costly. But legitimacy is not built on perfection; it is built on accountability. The Syrian government must continue to acknowledge its missteps, especially in Sweida, where the conflict was not sectarian but a localized rift that required careful containment.
Israel's claim that its strikes on Damascus and Sweida were to 'protect the Druze' is taken with a pinch of salt by most observers. If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government were truly concerned about minority rights, it might have reconsidered its actions in Gaza, where over 50,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023. The same government that called Palestinians 'human animals' and floated the idea of nuking Gaza now wants us to believe it is acting out of humanitarian concern.
Let us be clear: Israel sees opportunity, not altruism. The infancy of Syria's new government presents a strategic vacuum. Tel Aviv is playing a zero-sum game — grab land, accumulate leverage, and walk into future negotiations with a stacked deck.
Of course, given Israel's recent military successes — from Gaza to Iran — one might understand Netanyahu's audacity. But gambling with Syria's unity is not blackjack. It is Russian roulette. And the bullet does not just threaten Syria — it threatens the entire region.
The international community, especially the US, must curb Israel's appetite for chaos. Washington has leverage, and it must use it — not just to protect Syria, but to preserve the fragile architecture of Middle Eastern stability.
Syria's new government is not perfect, but it is legitimate. It is trying to do what few regimes in the region have dared: reform from within. That effort must be protected — not just by Syrians, but by their neighbors and allies. Because if Syria falls, the region does not just lose a country — it loses its compass.
And in a region already navigating storms, losing your compass is not a risk worth taking.