Bangladesh and Myanmar polls will test India's alliances, borders and connectivity plans

India Today

2 days ago

India's two eastern neighbours, Bangladesh and Myanmar, are likely to hold elections at the end of this year or the beginning of next year under controversial circumstances, with doubts over whether the polls will ease or worsen the crisis.Delhi will surely closely monitor what happens. One, because both nations have been through extensive turmoil in recent times, raising much uncertainty in India's eastern neighbourhood; and two, it faces multiple challenges emanating from developments in these countries.advertisementCivil war and mobocracyMyanmar has collapsed into a full-blown civil war with multiple armed groups joining the fight to topple the military junta that seized power through the February 2021 coup. In the last two years, the military junta has lost control over nearly half the country's territory to multiple ethnic rebel armies supported by armed resistance groups.
And Bangladesh descended into a lawless mobocracy after the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government on August 5 last year. An unelected interim government headed by Mohammed Yunus has run the show so far, unleashing a wave of vendetta-driven retribution against the Awami League and its allies. Radical Islamist forces have also gained a new lease of life with the Yunus administration releasing convicted terrorists like Ansarullah Bangla Team chief Jashimuddin Rahmani, who had been nabbed and jailed during Hasina's tenure in power.Bangladesh pollsYunus has usually been cagey about announcing a clear electoral roadmap despite much pressure from the army. Even in his August 5 address to the nation, marking the first anniversary of Hasina's ouster, Yunus pointed to polls in February next year if 'all goes well'.Chief Election Commissioner AMM Nasiruddin made a more definite announcement about Parliament polls in February, 'despite many difficulties'. And by all indications, Yunus has been the impediment.During his meeting with Bangladesh Nationalist Party acting chairperson Tarique Rahman in London two months ago, Yunus indicated possible polls in early February, but with a big rider — only if some much-desired reforms were completed by then. He earlier suggested polls for June 2026, something BNP leaders opposed as 'unviable" for many reasons, annual monsoon floods being the most important.Yunus is trying to drive a hard bargain with the BNP over seat-sharing so that it is compelled to leave out at least 50 seats in the 300-member Jatiyo Sangsad (Parliament) for the Jamaat-e-Islami and as many for the newly-formed National Citizens Party (NCP) and other smaller Islamic parties. The BNP has been in coalition with the Jamaat-e-Islami before, but many top leaders are keen to go it alone now.advertisementThe Jamaat-e-Islami has a blemished past, having collaborated with the Pakistan army during the 1971 Liberation War. Hence, many BNP leaders want to leave it out to strengthen nationalist credentials. But the Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as Yunus's strongest backer, alongside the NCP, which is led by the student-youth brigade that brought him to power after Hasina's ouster. Yunus seems obliged to protect their interests.Presidential ambitionsA winning coalition with a big enough bloc of core supporters is also seen as critical to help Yunus emerge as a unanimous choice for president. As president, Yunus, now 85, will have enough influence on policy but will be spared the stress of routine daily governance.More importantly, it will guarantee him immunity from future prosecution. He has already faced legal suits during Hasina's time and could be pulled up in the future by an unfavourable government.But can Yunus live up to his promise of organising truly free and fair polls if the Awami League is not allowed to contest? Denying the Awami League the opportunity because of Hasina's 'authoritarian rule' would be like denying the Congress the right to contest elections because of the Emergency in the 1970s.advertisementMyanmar lifts emergencyUnlike Yunus, the Myanmar military junta seems to be in a hurry to hold elections. Junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing lifted the state of emergency in late July to prepare for national elections, likely to be held in phases in December and January. Under the 2008 Constitution, the government is required to hold elections within six months of lifting the Emergency.In late July, the National Defence and Security Council dissolved the State Administration Council, the junta's official name. Its replacement, the State Security and Peace Commission, is chaired by Min Aung Hlaing, who also remains acting president. According to a regime order published in The Global New Light of Myanmar, the commission's purpose is to 'coordinate efforts for national defence, security and tranquility as well as ensure the successful holding of a multiparty democratic election'. It will exercise executive, legislative, and judicial powers until it nominally hands the reins to the winner of the planned election.Since Hlaing remains acting president and commander-in-chief of the military, there is little doubt that the government changes are cosmetic and merely to appear more palatable to the international community ahead of the election. Many doubt whether the junta can truly hold representative elections, as most democratic parties — including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy — as well as powerful ethnic rebel groups, are likely to boycott the polls.advertisementBut for the junta supremo, who recently tried to warm up to US President Donald Trump despite remaining dependent on China for sheer survival, the elections may be an important part of his charm offensive. He may feel encouraged by the Trump administration lifting sanctions on some companies owned by Burmese military cronies.Implications for IndiaIf elections in Bangladesh and Myanmar lead to political stability and help India secure strong working relations with whoever comes to power, Delhi should have good reasons to welcome the hustings. Unfortunately, that is not how the proposed polls are likely to pan out.Even assuming Yunus stitches together a coalition comprising the BNP, the Jamaat-e-Islami, the NCP, and other smaller Islamic parties, and emerges as the next president, an election without the Awami League will be considered less than participatory. The League has ruled the country for half its post-independent history and still commands a formidable votebank.If the polls were free and fair and the Awami League could contest without fear of persecution, most of their top leaders, including Sheikh Hasina, would have gone back to the country. Rather, they will likely try to remain in India and pursue political activities, something the Yunus dispensation objects to - he has been pressuring India to extradite Sheikh Hasina to stand trial in the many cases filed against her.advertisementIndia will then be caught between the contrasting pulls of either sheltering a trusted ally and upsetting a successor government or dumping a long-standing ally to forge working relations with a regime whose attitude towards India may still be influenced by Delhi's past bonhomie with the Awami League. It is caught between the devil and the deep sea. A situation aptly summed up by a Bengali proverb about 'losing both the mangoes and the sacks.'Conversely, the junta in Myanmar wants participatory elections, but major parties and armed ethnic groups don't — they want a complete change in national polity by ending those provisions of the 2008 Constitution that gives the army lots of power. And no settlement that sends the army back to the barracks will be acceptable to them.So if polls don't lead to peace and an end to the civil war, India will still be left with huge uncertainties over its crucial connectivity projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transport corridor and the Golden Trilateral Highway connecting Northeast India with Thailand through Myanmar. Fighting in Myanmar's border states with India will continue to trigger refugee influxes and possible linkages between rebel groups. Fencing this difficult border is easier said than done — it is time-consuming, costly, and far less effective than many would imagine.(Subir Bhaumik is a former BBC and Reuters correspondent and author who has worked in Bangladesh as a senior editor with bdnews24.com)- Ends(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Must Watch