Can Netanyahu fully occupy Gaza without destroying Israel?

Telegraph

2 days ago

Freed hostages have recounted the terror of languishing in a Hamas tunnel while the blasts from Israeli air strikes move ever closer.
Now, under a plan being considered by Benjamin Netanyahu, those same tunnels may well shudder from the sound of IDF tanks and automatic gunfire directly overhead.
In what appears to be a major gamble, Israel's government seems poised to announce the 'full occupation' of Gaza in what it says is a final attempt to rescue the hostages and wipe out Hamas.
The plan would mean smashing arguably the only consistent taboo in the IDF's nearly 23-month-long campaign: namely, conducting major ground operations in areas where hostages are believed to be held.
The main areas affected are Gaza City in the north of the Strip and Deir al-Balah in the centre.
Largely because Israeli intelligence thinks the hostages are being held there, these are the last major conurbations in Gaza not to have been substantially flattened, and they are currently home to around 1.4 million Palestinians.
The strategy is not without significant risk. Critics believe the remaining hostages would probably die in the operation. Meanwhile, Mr Netanyahu's generals are said to be deeply opposed.
The Israeli prime minister hinted at his plan in an oblique video address on Monday, in which he said: 'We are committed to free Gaza from the tyranny of these terrorists.'
It coincided with a series of unattributed leaks from his office suggesting that 'occupation' of Gaza was now the preferred option, following the collapse of formal negotiations with Hamas last month.
This appears at variance with a plan of 'encirclement' reportedly being worked up by military chiefs, under which the IDF would establish semi-permanent zones around population centres from which to launch raids against Hamas.
On Tuesday, Sharren Haskel, Israel's deputy foreign minister, confirmed to The Telegraph that the occupation plan was 'something that is still being discussed'.
Families of the hostages are, by and large, appalled.
'That means one thing,' said Viki Cohen, mother of captured soldier Nimrod. 'It means they will only bring our brothers back in coffins. Maybe there will be a miracle and our heroic soldiers will be able to save one or two people.'
The thinking at the top levels of government, however, is that the plight of the hostages – 20 are believed to be alive – is now so dire that Israel cannot afford to wait for a ceasefire deal that is acceptable to both sides.
It means, they say, that applying overwhelming military pressure is the best chance.
This follows the release of harrowing videos in recent days of Evyatar David and Rom Braslavsky in an emaciated state, with Mr David being forced to dig what he said was his own grave.
'Unfortunately, with the images of Rom and Evyatar that were published this weekend, it is proof that the longer this goes, the more in danger they are,' Ms Haskel said on Tuesday.
'Hamas right now is killing them slowly, starving them, torturing them, mentally, physically.
'They cannot survive much longer in the hands of that death cult. So the only way to bring them back is through military operations.'
Sources close to Mr Netanyahu insist that he has Donald Trump's backing for the new plan.
However, reports suggest it is being opposed by the military. The Israel Defense Forces' chief of staff, Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, is widely thought to believe that the IDF has gone as far as it can in safely pressuring Hamas to return the hostages.
This week's political leaks have not been kind to him. Several Israeli outlets reported a senior official as saying: 'If that [the plan] doesn't work for the chief of staff, he should resign.'
Many in Israel's commentariat are now expecting – and those in the community of former military and security chiefs actively hoping – that he will do just that.
Mr Netanyahu's son, Yair, no stranger to controversy, also appeared to join in the attack, claiming on social media that Lt Gen Zamir's appointment had not been his father's idea.
Retired military chiefs' plea to Trump
The general's decision to cancel a trip to CentCom in the US has been taken by some as a sign of crisis at the top of the command structure.
It comes at an exceptionally fragile time for relations between Israel's political and security establishments, following an open letter by no fewer than 550 retired senior military and spy chiefs to Donald Trump, begging the US president to pressure Mr Netanyahu to end the 'unjust ' war in Gaza.
The image of IDF commanders as politically neutral professional servants is central to Israel's conception of itself as the only democracy in the Middle East.
This may have been on the mind of Yair Lapid, the opposition leader, when he urged Mr Netanyahu and his chief of staff this week to keep their disagreements 'behind closed doors'.
Even if they do, some fear that by asking an exhausted and depleted army to expand its operations yet further, Mr Netanyahu and his allies put that ideal at risk.
Fighting into areas where hostages are held in order to release them safely also risks stretching the credulity of centre-ground opinion in a country already gripped by protests.
Poll after poll indicate that while the majority of people are emotionally in favour of pummelling Hamas, their priority is returning the hostages immediately, if necessary by striking a deal to end the war.
For the civilians of Gaza – serially displaced, intensely bombed and plagued by hunger – it could pile on further disaster.
A feature of the campaign of the last three months – Operation Gideon's Chariot, which was also supposed to pressure Hamas into releasing the hostages – has been to demolish large areas of residential neighbourhoods using air power, army ordnance engineers or civilian contractors.
In practical terms, it means the southern city of Rafah no longer exists, along with tracts of Khan Younis.
Hundreds of thousands of civilians are now in makeshift refugee camps and tented cities in the coastal enclave of Al Mawasi and numerous other locations.
If the same approach was taken to Gaza City, another million people – roughly half the Strip's population – risk becoming internally displaced.
There has been talk for a month now of Israel constructing a 'humanitarian city' on the rubble of Rafah, into which all civilians would be ordered while the army attempts to finish off Hamas. However, this too has reportedly prompted opposition from Lt Gen Zamir.
Ms Haskel said on Tuesday that the scheme – bitterly criticised by much of the international community – remained government policy. However, she said that ministers had 'requested the plans' from the military, suggesting that a workable blueprint has yet to be signed off.
Some in Israel's media fear that without a robust refugee plan in place, assaulting Gaza City and Deir al-Balah, where another 400,000 people reside, could escalate the humanitarian crisis past the point where the country's international reputation can recover.
Ironically, talk of occupation came just as Israel agreed to let private goods into the Strip, in parallel to UN and NGO supplies, for the first time in months in an effort to ease the suffering.
Despite the concerns, there are prominent voices in Israel who argue that expanding the fighting could successfully return the hostages.
Lt Col Yaron Buskila, a former special forces officer and director general of the hawkish Habithonistim Movement, said this week that fighting towards terrorists known to be holding hostages could work.
'You can carry out a raid on a structure and create the element of surprise or, alternatively, you can reach the site, apply pressure and, in the course of that pressure, hold negotiations,' he said.
'After all, negotiations themselves are a weapon since they create communication that forces the captors to choose between different alternatives.'
Critics say continuing war is Netanyahu's only plan
For Mr Netanyahu's critics, the touted full occupation has fuelled speculation that his only plan is to continue the war, because his ultra-nationalist coalition partners will collapse his government if he does not.
For those on the Left, both inside Israel and abroad, new large-scale assaults on populated areas will be taken as further evidence of ethnic cleansing of Gazans, a charge Israel utterly rejects and says is based on anti-Semitism and Hamas propaganda.
Nevertheless, opponents will point to Mr Trump's February vision of a Middle East Riviera for Gaza, a rich man's paradise from which Gazans have been removed.
Israel currently says it would facilitate the voluntary departure of Palestinian civilians from the Strip. However, it has so far not succeeded in finding a third country willing to accept refugees.
Any final decision on the full occupation of Gaza would need to be formally signed off by Israel's security cabinet, which is expected to meet in the coming days, once Gideon Sa'ar, the foreign minister, returns from New York, where he is taking part in a special session of the UN on the plight of the hostages.
In the meantime, all eyes will be on Lt Gen Zamir for any hint of public dissent.
Some interpreted an order he gave to cancel the emergency extension of reserve call-up duration, meaning the army will be reduced in numbers later this year, as just such a hint.
However, he is reported to be phlegmatic in private, repeatedly inviting critical ministers to replace him, if they can think of someone better to do the job.
In public, he continues to toe the line, telling soldiers on a recent visit to Gaza that they will fight on for as long as necessary in the absence of a ceasefire deal.
On Tuesday, on a visit to Gaza, Israel Katz, the defence minister, appeared to fire a shot across Lt Gen Zamir's bow when he said the IDF will 'professionally implement ministers' decisions'.
If history is anything to go by, that is exactly what it will do.
US president could be key
More level-headed Israeli commentators argue that Lt Gen Zamir knew what he was getting into when he accepted Mr Netanyahu's offer of promotion to chief of staff, and that those hoping for a dramatic resignation will wait in vain.
Which leaves Mr Trump.
While he has repeatedly voiced concern about the humanitarian crisis and is known to want a ceasefire, he has conspicuously taken Israel's side in blaming Hamas for the recent collapse in talks, as well as echoing Israeli rhetoric about using 'alternative' methods to return the hostages.
His thinking on the way ahead may be influenced by the visit to Gaza last week of Steve Witkoff, his Middle East Envoy, whose counsel he appears to value.
After all, the last time Mr Witkoff set foot in the benighted enclave was just before Mr Trump's 'Riviera' speech in February.