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What to expect from the world's largest 2W manufacturer in Q1FY26 results?
The company is expected to report a muted performance, impacted by production disruptions in April and weak demand in the 110cc segment, analysts said.
While a richer product mix and spares may aid average selling prices (ASPs), brokerages expect revenue to decline between 2 per cent and 4 per cent year-on-year. Margins are likely to remain under pressure due to lower volumes, high raw material costs, and new product launch expenses. Profit is estimated to fall 5-8 per cent Y-o-Y.
Notably, Hero MotoCorp released robust July sales data on August 1. The company dispatched 449,755 units during the month, up 21 per cent from 370,274 units in July 2024. VAHAN retail registrations stood at 339,827 units in July, with retail activity showing stability across urban and rural markets. With the festive season ahead, volume momentum is expected to improve.
In scooters, Destini 125 and Xoom 125 led market share gains. The HF Deluxe motorcycle portfolio was also expanded with the launch of the new HF Deluxe Pro, offering upgraded features and enhanced efficiency.
Meanwhile, on the bourses, HeroMoto Corp shares were in demand, rising as much as 3.64 per cent to an intraday high of ₹4,469.75 per share.
Around 1:15 PM, Hero MotoCorp share price was trading 3.40 per cent higher at ₹4,459.1. In comparison, BSE Sensex was trading 0.5 per cent higher at 81,004.97 levels. Check List of Q1 results today
Given these developments, here's what top brokerages expect from Hero MotoCorp in Q1FY26:
Kotak Institutional Equities
Analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities expect Hero's revenue to decline by 2 per cent Y-o-Y in Q1FY26, led by a 12 per cent Y-o-Y fall in volumes due to production challenges in April and weak demand in the 110cc segment. However, average selling prices (ASPs) are seen rising 7 per cent Y-o-Y, driven by a richer product mix, including a higher share of premium bikes, spares, and exports. Ebitda margin is expected to contract 30 bps Y-o-Y to 14.1 per cent.
Accordingly, net sales are forecast at ₹9,907.4 crore, down 2.3 per cent Y-o-Y, Ebitda at ₹1,393.7 crore (down 4.5 per cent Y-o-Y), and adjusted net profit at ₹1,067.8 crore (down 4.9 per cent Y-o-Y).
Nuvama
Those at Nuvama expect Y-o-Y revenue decline due to supply constraints impacting volumes. The brokerage also sees Ebitda margin contraction on account of lower operating leverage and higher product launch expenses. It highlighted the demand outlook as a key monitorable.
Analysts project net sales at ₹9,764.1 crore, down 4 per cent Y-o-Y; Ebitda at ₹1,362.7 crore, down 7 per cent Y-o-Y; and adjusted PAT at ₹1,042.2 crore, down 7 per cent Y-o-Y.
HDFC Securities
HDFC Securities analysts expect realisations to fall 1 per cent Q-o-Q due to an unfavourable mix, with lower exports and higher contribution from entry-level motorcycles, though this is partially offset by rising EV volumes. Ebitda margin is expected to decline QoQ to 13.6 per cent owing to increased raw material costs and the adverse mix.
Thus, revenue is projected at ₹9,743.2 crore, down 3.9 per cent Y-o-Y; Ebitda margin at 13.6 per cent, down 80 bps Y-o-Y; and PAT at ₹1,030.3 crore, down 8.2 per cent Y-o-Y.
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