How many points can Oilers prospect Matt Savoie produce in his rookie season?

New York Times

18-07-2025

The Edmonton Oilers have cleared the deck for top prospect winger Matt Savoie. Former Oilers Corey Perry, Viktor Arvidsson and Connor Brown — who collectively scored 47 goals last season — were all moved down the line. Only Zach Hyman, the team's top right winger, will return from last season's veteran-laden group. Unless the Oilers plan on procuring talent from the August 35-plus contracts, it's impossible for this team to get older on the wing than in 2024-25.
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For Savoie, it's a fantastic opportunity. For Edmonton management, it's a risk worth taking since there were no young value contracts in feature roles among the team's forwards a year ago.
Savoie has speed, skill and showed impressive range in the AHL one year ago with the Bakersfield Condors. The opportunities for the young forward are exceptional. He could be spending time this winter with superstar centres Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, or both.
What's a reasonable projection for Savoie offensively? One of the ways we can get a glimpse into an unwritten future is via comparable players who played in the AHL in previous seasons. Using specific criteria (points-per-game proximity), can we find wingers who played in the AHL and then became NHL regulars in the following season? How well did they perform? As it turns out, there are several players worth noting.
Luke Evangelista of the Nashville Predators has many things in common with Savoie. Evangelista is listed at 6-feet and 183 pounds at NHL.com, while Savoie is 5-foot-9, 179 pounds at the same site. Both men are undersized for the position. Both have great puck skills and can score goals.
As AHL rookies, at age 20, the two men delivered similar numbers:
All numbers via AHL.com
Savoie has the edge as a scorer, although he's not a volume shooter. Accuracy and scoring from close range may benefit him with the Oilers this season. Savoie is a solid playmaker, although Evangelista had superior assist totals.
The following season, at age 21, Evangelista delivered a solid rookie year for the Nashville Predators. He scored 16-23-39 in 80 games, just shy of 0.50 points per game. If Savoie delivered similar numbers, including 1.77 points per 60 at five-on-five, Oilers fans should be pleased with the output.
There are some differences between the two players in their respective 20-year-old seasons. Evangelista played 24 games in his age-20 season, giving him a good idea about the pace and physicality of the league. Savoie received just a three-game look one year ago.
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On the other hand, Savoie is the superior skater, with a top skating speed in the 92nd percentile, compared to Evangelista, who was below 50 percent in his rookie year. Another advantage Savoie could enjoy is the strength of his linemates. If he gets significant minutes with McDavid or Draisaitl, his numbers could zoom in a big way. Evangelista's rookie numbers at five-on-five (12-15-27 in 80 games, 0.34 points per game) included almost 600 minutes with Tommy Novak. Savoie should have the edge in quality of linemates.
There are similarities between Marco Rossi's season (age 20) and Savoie's, but Rossi didn't go directly to the NHL for a full season at age 21. He owned a 0.84 points per game total in the minors at 20, and improved on it (0.96) at age 21.
When he was 22, Rossi arrived as a full-time NHL player. He has delivered 0.49 points per game and 0.73 points per game in his two seasons with the Minnesota Wild.
Rossi is a centre, making him less than an ideal comparable for Savoie. He has good speed, although shy of Savoie's numbers in 2024-25. Both were No. 9 selections in their draft years (2020 for Rossi, 2022 for Savoie), although the verbal surrounding Rossi then and now suggests more offensive torque for the Wild centre.
Savoie and Rossi are not the comfortable fit that Evangelista-Savoie offer us, but it's worth noting there are similarities here.
Conor Geekie played his AHL and NHL rookie seasons, age 20, in 2024-25 (same year as Savoie played his rookie AHL campaign). Although that distinction complicates things, it's a fabulous comparable because both men played in the WHL, AHL and NHL in matching seasons, same age. Here are the totals:
All numbers via hockeydb
Savoie was the superior junior player, the two men performing about equally in their rookie pro seasons. Savoie played in just four NHL games, so the points per game percentage, while interesting, is not to be trusted. These two players marched in lock step in the WHL and AHL since 2021-22, and give us another fascinating comparable.
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Geekie is not the skater Lavoie is, while also being 6-foot-4, 207 pounds. He did play quite a bit at centre last season, so he would have the position advantage over Savoie.
It's a very comfortable offensive comparable.
Savoie has a possible advantage over his comparables (McDavid or Draisaitl on his line) that could make this entire exercise moot. The players I've listed here (Evangelista, Rossi, Geekie) are quality talents and have all played more NHL games than Savoie.
There is uncertainty about the Edmonton player, but the numbers above suggest the only real issue is actually proving himself at the highest level. Savoie's brief time in the NHL was impressive; he touched the puck and made plays. He also survived the AHL, a league that often grinds fine offensive wingers into a fine white powder.
Based on these comps, with the admission that Rossi has emerged as a 60-point player already and may skew the view, I think it's reasonable to project Savoie as a 0.50 points per game player in the NHL next season. More if he gets one of McDavid or Draisaitl as his regular centre, even more if he lucks into power-play time due to injury or opportunity.
He may not play every game because NHL coaches are risk-averse. If we project Savoie for 60 games, 12 goals and 30 points, that would slide in with the delivery of his comparables at the same age. If he gets 80 games, then 40 points is a reasonable projection.
The Geekie comp is so close it's unreal.