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Oil deal, Nobel nomination and more… Is Trump moving closer to Pakistan and further away from India?
US President Donald Trump has said that his administration has struck a trade deal with Pakistan, which include joint development of the country's "massive" oil reserves. Reuters
'They have given us nothing but lies and deceit,' Donald Trump had said about Pakistan in 2018. Now, in his second term, the US president, it seems, has done an about turn when it comes to Islamabad with ties between the two countries growing closer and closer.
In fact, on Wednesday (July 30), US President Donald Trump announced that Washington has reached a deal with Islamabad to jointly develop the country's 'massive oil reserves,' in what he described as a major energy partnership.
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The timing of the new deal with Pakistan won't be missed by many geopolitical observers; it came just hours after he announced a 25 per cent tariff on Indian products and said that 'an unspecified penalty' would also be imposed on India for buying Russian oil and weapons.
The oil reserves deal is just the latest in the new dynamics of US-Pakistan ties. Experts note there's a reset taking place between Trump and the Asian country. But what does this mean for neighbouring India? Should we be worried?
Trump's 'massive oil deal' with Pakistan
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced that his administration had struck a deal with Pakistan to develop the South Asian nation's oil reserves. 'We have just concluded a deal with the country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive oil reserves,' Trump wrote on social media.
'We are in the process of choosing the oil company that will lead this partnership,' he added.
While further details remains unavailable on the deal, this marks the first high-level move by Islamabad to tap its large oil deposits along its coast.
The oil deal also comes amid Pakistan's negotiations with the US over its trade deal. Last week, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said the two were 'very close' to a trade deal that could come within days, after he met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday.
Pakistan bestows high honour on US general
However, the oil and trade deal is just one indicator that Islamabad and Washington are cosying up to one another.
Just a few days ago, Pakistan awarded Nishan-e-Imtiaz (military), one of the country's highest state honours, to US Central Command (USCENTCOM) chief General Michael Kurilla. In a high-profile ceremony at the Presidential Palace in Islamabad, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari conferred the award on Kurilla for his role in promoting regional peace and enhancing US-Pakistan military ties, a symbolic and strategic signal to Washington.
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Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari presenting military honor to General Kurilla. Image Courtesy: @clashreport/X
The huge honour for Kurilla came weeks after the American general praised Islamabad as a 'phenomenal partner' in counter-terrorism.
Munir's lunch with Trump
The most notable indicator of a shift in ties between Trump and Pakistan came mid-June when Pakistan army chief General Asim Munir was hosted by the US president for a luncheon at the White House. This was the first time a US president hosted a military chief from Pakistan who isn't also the country's head of state.
It's not clear what happened between the two behind closed doors, but White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly was quoted as saying that the meeting between the two came after the Pakistan army chief pitched Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in preventing a nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
What is even more interesting is that Munir's lunch with Trump was followed up with Pakistan Air Force Chief Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu visiting Washington in the first week of July. He held high-level meetings at the Pentagon, State Department and Capitol Hill to 'further enhance bilateral defence cooperation and mutual interest'.
Several analysts pointed that Sidhu's visit was with the aim of acquiring American military hardware; Pakistan hopes to acquire the American-built F-16 Block 70 fighter jets, AIM-7 Sparrow air-to-air missiles, and batteries of the US-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).
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Trump's change of heart with Pakistan
After years of diplomatic chill, Pakistan has rapidly rebuilt ties with the US under Trump. In fact, Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden, had distanced himself from Pakistan, refusing to call then-Prime Minister Imran Khan.
However, shortly after coming to power in January, Trump changed it all; he even mentioned Pakistan, thanking the nation for its aid in the arrest of the Abbey Gate bombing mastermind, in his first address to a joint session of Congress on March 4.
In recent months, the US under Donald Trump is cosying up to Pakistan. Representational image/Reuters
Officials note that two key factors have helped Pakistan win Trump's favour — its embrace of cryptocurrency and partnering with World Liberty Financial, a firm linked to the Trump family, and nominating the US president for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.
Operation Sindoor has also helped Pakistan cozy up to Trump. That's because while India has refuted claims that the US president helped broker a ceasefire between the two countries, Islamabad has acknowledged his role.
As Arif Ansar, chief strategist at Washington-based advisory firm PoliTact, told Al Jazeera that Pakistan's military performance during the confrontation prompted Trump's engagement. 'It demonstrated that despite its political and economic challenges, the country can outmanoeuvre a much bigger adversary,' Ansar said. 'This has led President Trump to engage with Pakistan's traditional power centres based on core strategic interests.'
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A concern for India
The improving US-Pakistan ties come at a very critical time. While Trump is seemingly going soft on Islamabad, he's going hard at India. He has slapped 25 per cent tariffs on India and a 'Russia penalty'.
In a post on his platform Truth Social, Trump said India's own protectionist policies over the years had meant America had 'done relatively little business with them'. 'Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia's largest buyer of energy, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to stop the killing in Ukraine — all things not good!' he wrote. However, he did not clarify what exactly the 'penalty' would entail beyond the newly announced 25 per cent tariff.
He later called India a 'friend', saying Washington was still negotiating with New Delhi and the situation would be clearer by the end of the week. 'They have one of the highest tariffs in the world now, they're willing to cut it very substantially… We're talking to India now — we'll see what happens … You'll know by the end of this week,' Trump said.
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Experts also fear that increasing interaction between US and Pakistan could result in a re-hyphenation between India and Pakistan. Moreover, India can't afford to have Islamabad currying much favour with Washington as well as Beijing. This puts the country in a difficult position on the global stage.
But observers also note that nothing is 'permanent in the Trump administration'. As Raza Ahmad Rumi, a distinguished lecturer at the City University of New York (CUNY) told Al Jazeera, 'Like past dalliances, it (US-Pakistan ties) could fade once strategic goals are met or regimes change.'
We will have to wait and watch to see what comes next.
With inputs from agencies
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