Reliance fires up Dalal Street to over 1% rise
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Mumbai: India's equity indices advanced more than 1% on Monday, led by a surge in Reliance Industries , after March quarter earnings at the country's biggest company by market value exceeded expectations.The run-up helped the gauges recover from Friday's losses caused by escalating tensions between India and Pakistan.The NSE Nifty gained 1.2%, or 289.2 points, to finish at 24,328.5. The BSE Sensex moved 1.3%, or 1,005.8 points higher, at 80,218.4.Reliance shares surged over 5% on Monday-the highest single-day gains since June 2024-to a market valuation of ₹18.5 lakh crore, from ₹17.6 lakh crore. "The bulk of today's advance was due to Reliance after its results," said Akshay Chinchalkar, head of research at Axis Securities. "The results were only a catalyst because the markets were primed for an upmove, after the fall and intraday rebound on Friday." Reliance accounts for a weighting of 8.12% on the free float-based Nifty 50.The conglomerate is next only to HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank Technical indicators point to a further upside of around 3% on the Nifty, to as high as 25,000 in the near term, Chinchalkar of Axis Securities said.In the past three weeks, the Sensex and Nifty have gained nearly 10% from the lows reached on April 7, as renewed foreign institutional purchases, as well as indications that US President Donald Trump could soften his stance on tariffs, contributed to the rebound. Expectations that India will be less affected by the tariffs have been instrumental in the resumption of foreign buying of late.On Monday, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net ₹2,474 crore, taking their purchase tally to ₹35,163 crore in the last nine trading sessions, through which they remained net buyers. So far in April, they have purchased Indian stocks worth ₹859 crore. Their domestic counterparts bought shares worth ₹2,818 crore on Monday."While some volatility with foreign flows is likely around the time when the 90-day pause is lifted, until then, foreign flows are expected to move northward," said Chinchalkar.The start-of-the-week bounce-back was reaffirmed by the Nifty holding above the 23,800-a crucial support level. "If Nifty breaches the 23,800 levels, then there could be a correction; however, it is more likely to move towards 25,000 levels in the near term," said Vikas Jain, head of research at Reliance Securities.The broader market surged in line with the blue-chip but advances-to-declines across the market showed muted optimism. The Nifty Mid-cap 150 index and the Small-cap 250 index climbed 1.4% and 0.5%, respectively.Of the 4,179 shares traded on the BSE, 1,914 advanced, while 2,091 declined. In the past week, the Mid-cap index advanced 0.5% and Small-cap index declined 0.9%. The Volatility Index (VIX)-the market's fear gauge- fell 1.3% to over 16.9 on Monday after jumping 5.6% in the previous trading session."The recovery from the gap area suggests that the markets are expected to lead higher and attempt to cross the peaks made in September (2024), although not in a straight line since global headlines will continue to dominate sentiment," said Chinchalkar. "Still, the benchmark Nifty (is expected) to make a new high by the end of this year."Elsewhere in Asia, Taiwan and Indonesia gained 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Japan climbed 0.4% and South Korea advanced 0.1%. China and Hong Kong declined 0.2% and 0.04%, respectively.At home, all sectoral indices closed higher except the IT Index. Bank Nifty rose 1.4%, while PSU Bank and Private Bank indices advanced 2.4% and 1.4%, respectively. The Nifty Pharma and Healthcare indices advanced around 2%, while the Auto index surged 1.6%.
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The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) now stands at 24,856, while the 40-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is placed at 24,480. On the intraday timeframes, the index remains comfortably positioned, with the 20-hour SMA at 25,132 and the 40-hour EMA at 24,011. Importantly, the falling wedge breakout pattern identified earlier on the 45-minute chart has played out successfully, with the immediate target around 25,200 achieved. The index now awaits fresh cues for the next leg higher. Momentum indicators suggest a moderately bullish undertone. The daily RSI has ticked up slightly to 62, reflecting sustained strength, while the hourly RSI has eased to 57, indicating a brief consolidation in the short term. The MACD indicators remain positive, with the daily MACD at 202 and the hourly MACD at 64, showing continued bullish momentum with no signs of exhaustion yet. However, the derivatives data paints a more cautious picture. Total Call Open Interest (OI) now stands at 176.1 million, compared to 153.2 million in Puts, resulting in a bearish differential of -22.9 million. The trend remains negative on the OI front, as the Call OI change of 679,800 outweighs the Put OI change of 491,200, leading to a net bearish differential of -188,600. The highest Call OI continues to build at the 26,000 strike, with notable additions at the 25,250 strike. On the Put side, the maximum OI is still concentrated at the 25,000 strike, while the highest addition is now seen at 25,200—indicating that bulls are attempting to build fresh support closer to current market levels. The overall Put-Call Ratio remains subdued, reflecting a cautious bias among traders. Volatility remained in check, with the India VIX falling by another 2.48% to close at 13.66, its lowest reading in recent sessions. This sharp drop in volatility indicates growing investor confidence and reduced fear, often a precursor to stronger directional moves when paired with positive price action. In summary, the Nifty's steady close above the 25,100 mark, coupled with improving technical and global cues, suggests ongoing resilience. However, the large Doji candle and bearish bias in derivatives data call for a cautious approach in the immediate term. A decisive breakout above 25,250 could pave the way toward the 25,300–25,400 zone, while immediate support is seen at 25,000, followed by a broader base between 24,800 and 24,600. Traders should stay nimble and monitor global signals and institutional flows for fresh directional triggers. Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441. Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
