Senedd election: Is Merthyr Tydfil set for an electoral revolution?

BBC News

4 hours ago

"Come check the streets where normal people live."Kids are smoking, drugs available 24/7."When you got time check my area condition."My invitation to the politician."Daljit Singh is the owner of Gurnos sports and social club and also a part-time songwriter - that one is destined for YouTube."I want to express the situation from here to any leader out there. Please come and have a look," he said.
Last year he put words into action and brought Nigel Farage to Merthyr Tydfil to launch Reform's general election manifesto.Mr Singh wanted to get politicians out of their bubble and speak to people who felt left behind and neglected.The club is the sort of place Nigel Farage would have had in mind, albeit not geographically, when he recently challenged Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to a debate in a northern working men's club.When we visited, Mr Singh and his colleagues were preparing the venue for actual, not verbal, fisticuffs - a 300-seat sell out white collar boxing night.While Reform did not win any Welsh seats in last year's general election, it did come second in 13 of the 32 constituencies.Mr Singh thinks Reform will do well at next year's Senedd election because "people have had enough of being let down on so many things. Why not try something new?"He added people who were struggling to get by found it "unfair" to see money being spent on migrants who had crossed the English Channel.
Outside the club, in front of a parade of shops, we met Steve Collins, a builder from Troedyrhiw, who had been at the Farage speech.He said he wanted change."We've had too many promises and nothing coming forward - Labour and the Conservatives are both the same in my opinion," he said."This has always been a Labour town, but people are getting fed up now... the state of Merthyr," he added.Another woman told us Farage was "straight", that she had voted for him in the past, but that she would probably stick with Labour next year.Recent polling suggests Reform has a chance of becoming the biggest party in the Senedd, although it might struggle to find someone willing to do a post-election deal to form a government.It still does not have a Welsh leader and has not named any candidates.Polling also suggests that Plaid Cymru could be the party to end 27 years of Labour dominance in Cardiff Bay.
A local Labour source admitted the party faced a fight but said it needed to shout more loudly about its achievements, mentioning the completed Heads of the Valleys road, the new Metro and improvements at Prince Charles Hospital.Merthyr has long been one of Labour's heartlands and has had a long history of political change and controversy.It returned the first Labour MP in a Welsh constituency, Keir Hardie, in 1900.It was scene of a Jeremy Corbyn leadership rally in 2016, a Yes Cymru pro-independence March in 2019 and has had its share of recent controversies, including delays over armoured vehicles for the Army which are built in the town and issues with an opencast coal mine.It is also one of the areas with the highest benefits claimant rate so is likely to be disproportionately hit by UK Labour government welfare reforms.Most famously Merthyr was where workers rose up against appalling conditions and poor pay in 1831 - a rebellion which became known as the Merthyr Rising.As next May approaches are we looking at another revolution at the ballot box?
Across town at Merthyr Tydfil College, a lively politics and governance class left you in little doubt that more political upheaval could be on the way."We are seeing the overturn of that sort of Labour Welsh order of this guarantee that Wales will always be Labour until the cows come home," said 17-year-old Zack."I do think Labour takes it for granted with their traditional safe seats. These aren't iron strongholds anymore of Labour," he added.Aaron, also 17, agreed."We've seen the start of Labour's downfall," he said."They've become too comfortable with the fact that they've always been voted in in Wales and we're now getting to the point where we're seeing other parties gain support like Plaid Cymru."He added: "I'm seeing a lot of people who have been lifelong Labour supporters and they've now decided that they're going to vote Reform or Plaid because Labour's not in the best interests for people anymore in Wales."While not necessarily supporting Farage, 16-year-old Isobelle and 17-year-old Amber-Rose recognised the Reform leader's appeal."Whatever Reform say people might gravitate towards them because it is so new and Nigel Farage is so 'in his own way' that it will appeal to people."We do have strong Labour and Conservative leaders but Nigel Farage does seem to be more prominent," they said.
Other topics that cropped up included the "betrayal" of the working class over benefits reform, and the question of fairness.Why did Scotland have powers over the Crown Estate, justice and policing when Wales did not?For these young voters the principle rather than the policy area appeared to count for more.Wales had moved with the times, they argued, and politicians needed to move too.They also thought that Plaid Cymru and Reform were better at getting through to younger voters on social media than Labour.The students agreed that you could sum up next year's election with one word - change.The slogan that propelled UK Labour to a landslide win at the general election last year could be exactly what costs its Welsh colleagues at the Senedd in 2026.In two very different parts of town, predictions for next year were very much the same.