Senate GOP dealt major blow on megabill health care plans
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is scrambling to quell the Medicaid-fueled mutiny that's threatening to derail the megabill on both sides of the Capitol.
In the Senate, 'Medicaid moderates' are rejecting Finance's opening offer of $15 billion for a stabilization fund for rural hospitals to help offset paring back the provider tax in expansion states from 6 percent to 3.5 percent.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) called it 'inadequate' and warned that even if leadership goes up to the $100 billion she's seeking, 'that doesn't solve' her issues with the bill. Thune closed the door to $100 billion soon after.
Multiple senators are threatening they won't vote to open floor debate on the megabill without more clarity on Medicaid changes. That includes Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who warned colleagues behind closed doors Wednesday that 'you won't have a member from North Carolina sitting at this table after next year' unless the Senate changes course, Jordain scooped. (Reminder, fellow North Carolina Sen. Ted Budd isn't up for reelection until 2028.)
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) later posted on X that he spoke with Donald Trump and the president wants the Senate to 'stay with the House' on Medicaid. Look for whether Trump issues further instructions Thursday: Several GOP senators are expected to head to the White House for a 4 p.m. event to tout the 'big, beautiful bill.'
Over in the House, wary moderates are also rejecting the rural hospital fund; one told POLITICO it's 'bullshit.'
Speaker Mike Johnson is trying to calm nervous members by telling them he expects the Senate Medicaid language will move closer to the House's. House GOP leaders and moderates believe the provider tax will end up between 4 percent and 5 percent, according to four people granted anonymity to describe private conversations. Some House Republicans are prepared to swallow that. Others are protesting.
Those numbers aren't currently under serious consideration in the Senate, two people granted anonymity to describe the talks told POLITICO, where there's general skepticism that rank-and-file Republicans across the Capitol have a good read on the negotiations. (Johnson and Thune are in close contact, though; the Senate leader stepped out of Wednesday's lunch on the phone with his House counterpart.)
But a Senate shift could end up happening if Thune's members force his hand. Asked Wednesday about softening the provider-tax language, Thune didn't completely close the door. 'This all comes down to what the traffic will bear,' he told POLITICO.
Other outstanding megabill issues:
— Feeling less salty?: Blue-state House Republicans expected to receive two options in writing for a potential deal on the state and local tax deduction. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said the SALT Republicans' Wednesday meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) involved a 'productive conversation.'
— Public-lands push and pull: POLITICO obtained Sen. Mike Lee's (R-Utah) scaled-back plan to sell off millions of acres in public lands, which he's shipped off to the parliamentarian for review. It could still face GOP pushback.
— Inside RonJohn's White House talks: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told POLITICO the White House is working with him to establish a budget review panel through reconciliation. He's not a 'yes' on the megabill yet, though.
What else we're watching:
— Iran briefing: Senators will huddle at 2 p.m. for their rescheduled briefing on the Iran conflict. As of late Wednesday night, the potential speaker list included Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Joint Chiefs Chair Dan Caine, but Senate aides cautioned the list could change.
— Leg Branch markup: House appropriators will mark up the Legislative Branch funding bill Thursday — and there is a lot they want to see changed on Capitol Hill, according to their committee report released Wednesday. The panel had thoughts on member security, designated parking spaces, food service that accommodates more allergies and celiac disease, elevator outages and dome tours ahead of Thursday's markup.
James Bikales, Josh Siegel and Katherine Tully McManus contributed to this report.
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Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
What's Comes Next For The One Big Beautiful Bill Act
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 9: U.S. Senate Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-SD) (C) walks to the Senate floor at the U.S. Capitol Building on June 9, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by) Getty Images The clock is ticking towards July 4—the date President Trump insists he wants to sign the Republicans' big tax and budget cutting bill. The House passed its version of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' (OBBBA) last month and Senate Republicans are hashing out their version now, with a vote possible at the end of the week. But the two Houses must pass the exact same legislation before it can head to Trump's desk. OBBBA proposes tax and policy changes that could significantly impact how people and businesses plan, invest and grow—and importantly, it's considered the signature legislation of Trump's second term. In other words, it's something Republicans feel they must pass. As with any major legislation, the path forward is shaped as much by politics as by policy. The Honorable Dave Camp, a senior policy advisor within PwC's Washington National Tax Services practice, and former Chairman of the Committee on Ways and Means, knows a little something about the process. In March 2014, the Michigan Republican introduced the Tax Reform Act of 2014, the most comprehensive tax reform proposal since the mid-1980s. Prior, he was a member of the Joint Committee on Taxation for six years, serving as Chairman in 2011 and 2013 and Vice Chairman in 2012 and 2014. In a webinar for Forbes members last week, Camp said that Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), who chairs the current Senate Finance Committee, 'really delivered on things that he was talking about.' Camp noted that permanent tax policy was a goal of Crapo's committee and it made it into the Senate version of the bill. That's true, as the House and Senate versions of the bill would make permanent a number of the expiring tax cuts in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) passed in 2017, during Trump's first term. It would also sweeten some of those cuts. The beneficiaries of the most recent proposal are largely individuals. But that's because in the TCJA, many of the tax benefits for individuals were set to expire at the end of 2025, while the corporate tax breaks were largely permanent. That doesn't mean that all business tax breaks under the TCJA were permanent. Among the provisions set to expire at the end of this year: One that allowed the owners of 'passthrough' structures like limited liability companies (LLCs) or S corporations, who pay tax on business income on their individual tax returns (instead of at the corporate level), to deduct 20% of that business-related income, thus lowering their tax rate. The House and Senate versions of the bill would make the deduction permanent (and expand it). (You can read more about the House version of the bill here.) The Senate version of the bill would also permanently extend and modify the depreciation deduction for businesses. (Under current law, bonus depreciation is only available through 2026, subject to phasedowns, reductions in the deduction as the years pass.) Scoring and Budget Resolutions While these provisions are more or less what was expected in the bill, Camp noted that we don't yet have a final score on the Senate version. We do have a score on the House version—The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated it would increase the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade. The lack of scoring on the Senate side is largely because the bill is still being finalized—the Senate hasn't passed a version yet and the Parliamentarian is still reviewing it. That score will make a difference, as Camp stressed that revenue scores often drive policy. Dean Zerbe, National Managing Director of alliantgroup, who served as senior counsel and tax counsel to the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance from 2001 to 2008, under then-Chairman Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), also participated in the webinar. He noted the importance of scoring—the overall fiscal impact of the bill. That is a huge driver, he says. You can be a fan of part of the bill, he explains, but still not be able to push it forward without considering the expense. 'I love the shoes, love the purse, love the hat, Senator,' Zerbe deadpanned, "but tell me how we are paying for this.' Scoring is typically performed by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for spending and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) for revenue—both are nonpartisan and work to figure the potential changes to the budget as a result of spending and revenues that result from a particular bill. Zerbe joked that it's "a combination of both a dartboard and a magic eight ball.' That's when House and Senate members could look to revenue raisers, for example—items in the bill that can offset spending and tax cuts. There aren't very many in the Senate version—items like a tax on carried interest or stock buybacks that had been mentioned in earlier whispers are noticeably absent in the bill. Complicating the process, Camp noted, is that the Senate and House are working under different budget resolutions, which is out of the ordinary for big 'reconciliation' bills like this one. Typically, he explained, when it comes to a reconciliation bill, there's one concurrent budget resolution. A concurrent budget resolution is a non-binding agreement between the House and Senate that sets the tone for spending and revenue levels. Hashing that out in advance can help avoid some of the potential roadblocks and conflicts later. It's a common step—we saw a concurrent budget resolution before other significant reconciliation bills like the TCJA and the Democrats' American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. Reconciliation and The Byrd Rule So what are reconciliation bills? Reconciliation is used in the Senate when one party has the majority (more than 50 votes, as here) but not a filibuster-proof majority (60 votes). The process can be complicated, but generally, under reconciliation, the goal is to combine spending and revenue provisions into a single bill. Reconciliation bills are subject to special rules in the Senate. First, debate is limited to 20 hours, which can help a reconciliation bill get to a vote quickly. More importantly, the bill cannot be filibustered—the 60 votes necessary to stop a filibuster are not required. Thanks to the Byrd Rule, named after the late Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV), there are limits to reconciliation. For example, under the Byrd Rule, you can't tack on policy changes that are unrelated to the budget or have only 'incidental' effects on the budget. Also notable, any bill under reconciliation cannot increase the deficit beyond the fiscal years covered—that's usually limited to 10 years (and why tax cuts rarely last forever). Key Drivers In the Bill Sorting out some of the differences between the House and Senate plans can be tricky, but Camp said he believes the Senate also has to 'find a way to negotiate with itself.' That's key because Senators can release amendments on the floor, pushing the process out even further if they don't agree on key points (that can't happen in the House since bills are typically not amendable in the House once they hit the floor unless the House Rules Committee agrees). That said, Camp expects a big push to get to a final bill that will have enough votes to pass. Zerbe agreed, noting, 'This bill is critical to this administration.' Camp noted that historically, 'The rule of thumb is the House has to accept what the Senate can pass,' but that the thin margins in the House make that tenuous. 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What wasn't a surprise: Both versions included Trump's campaign promises on items like no tax on tips and no tax on overtime (Zerbe noted that these provisions were temporary, unlike those individual TCJA provisions which were made permanent). Next Steps The next step in the process is the Parliamentarian review—which has been lengthy, as expected with a bill of this size. The Parliamentarian advises on procedural matters and guides precedent. The job, which is deliberately nonpartisan, was created to navigate the complex rules and procedures of the Senate, especially as they apply to the budget reconciliation process. The Parliamentarian's job isn't always popular. If a provision is flagged as a result of the review, it has to be removed from the bill if the bill is to proceed under reconciliation. Despite the politics, both Camp and Zerbe expect the Parliamentarian's decisions to be respected. (You can see what's in and what's out as a result of the 'Byrd bath' here.) When do we expect to hear the final word on the Senate version? That's still up in the air. But Zerbe said to keep your eyes and ears open on Thursday (June 26)—that's the day that follows the Senate caucus lunches (those happen on Tuesday and Wednesday) where they will taking the temperature of members. If that's favorable, the bill could move to the floor on Thursday. But if it doesn't, is that the end of the bill? Not by a long shot. Camp said at the end of the day, the question is 'Does the President's agenda move forward or does it not move forward?' That, he said, will weigh heavily on a lot of the members. 'They're not done yet,' he said, adding, 'Small tweaks make kind of a big difference at this stage of the game." (The replay of the webinar is available for members here.) 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USA Today
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Hitting snags, Trump pushes Senate to pass his big tax bill before July 4
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It would also add restrictions to Medicaid and food stamps. Trump sought to rally support for the legislation at an event with workers his administration said would benefit from measures such as no taxes on tips or overtime. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a daily briefing that meetings and direct conversations with senators about the bill had been taking place behind the scenes. 'I saw some senators rolling out of the Oval Office the other day, and the president remains on the phones talking to his friends in the Senate when necessary,' she said. 'And when they call, he picks up the phone.' She declined to say which senators Trump was trying to convince. But the president spoke this week with Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, a key Republican holdout on the bill. Johnson said they met at the White House on June 23, which was a day before Trump left for Europe. Trump previously hosted members of the Senate Finance Committee at the White House and has met multiple times over the last month with Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Senators Mike Lee of Utah and Bernie Moreno of Ohio attended his event at the White House. Tax bill latest: GOP senators negotiate Trump budget bill in hopes of improving its polling Vice President JD Vance has also urged his former Senate colleagues to vote yes on the bill. He attended Senate Republicans' weekly luncheon last week and met with Johnson at the Capitol on June 10, a person familiar with the conversation said. The White House says it is optimistic it can get Johnson to a yes. He is one of several senators who have said they are worried the legislation, which extends tax cuts and expands breaks Trump signed into law in 2017, will add trillions to the federal deficit. Other lawmakers in the president's party say that cuts to Medicaid in the bill run too deep. Trump can only afford to lose three senators and still be able to pass the bill. Trump chides GOP 'grandstanders' The president directed Republican lawmakers to stay in town, and skip a planned recess heading into the July 4 holiday if they must, in order to get the bill to his desk on his preferred timeline. 'To my friends in the Senate, lock yourself in a room if you must, don't go home, and GET THE DEAL DONE THIS WEEK. Work with the House so they can pick it up, and pass it, IMMEDIATELY. NO ONE GOES ON VACATION UNTIL IT'S DONE,' he said on social media. At his afternoon event on June 26, the president spoke out at 'grandstanders' who were derailing his agenda, without chiding any specific Republican lawmaker by name. "I shouldn't say this, but we don't want to have grandstanders where one or two people raise their hand, 'we'll vote no.' And they do it to grandstand,' he said. 'Not good people. They know who I'm talking about. We don't need grandstanders.' The event was largely focused on everyday Americans the White House brought on stage to put a human face on the proposed policies. One of them was Maliki Krieski, a DoorDash driver from Ripon, Wisconsin, who works for the food delivery service to supplement her income and provide care for her son, a Type 1 diabetic. The 46-year old gift shop owner said she had previously shared her story with White House staff. 'No tax on tips is huge,' Krieski told USA TODAY after the event. 'Being able to put that money back into our pockets and be able to help our families be able to really grow the economy is extremely important.' Tax bill hits another roadblock Lawmakers are relying on a complicated budgeting mechanism to push the bill through without triggering a Democratic filibuster. Senators had to revise a House-passed version of the bill on June 26 after the chamber's parliamentarian, Elizabeth McDonough, ruled that provisions of the bill that were critical to winning over conservative hardliners in the House would have to come out. Among the provisions that were ruled out of bounds were several pertaining to Medicaid, a federal healthcare program for low-income and disabled individuals. Another roadblock: Trump, Senate GOP face big setback on tax bill's Medicaid overhaul Republicans in the lower chamber then said they would oppose the bill if areas of the bill were adjusted. 'I love President Trump and I really want to vote to pass his agenda in the Big Beautiful Bill when it comes back to the House from the Senate, but between the far left Senate Parliamentarian stripping out many of our good provisions and the special interest lobbyists sneaking in dirty poison pills like 10 year state moratoriums on AI, I'm currently a NO,' Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia said in a post on X. House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters that his chamber would work around the clock to meet Trump's deadline. 'It doesn't make it easier, but you know me, hope springs eternal,' Johnson said.
The Hill
an hour ago
- The Hill
Businessman Nate Morris launches Kentucky Senate bid
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