India's strategic sectors poised for growth despite export challenges: Hiren Ved, Alchemy Capital
What about the remainder of the fiscal year? With government support for consumption, any return expectations at the index level?
What about the healthcare sector, especially with the Prime Minister pushing for affordable medication? How will this impact players?
Exports are slowing. Can domestic growth and government spending offset this?
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Should investors tactically avoid exports for now?
How do you see the current earnings season? Any adjustments to your overweights or underweights?
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Hiren Ved, Alchemy Capital, says despite near-term challenges in exports , India's strategic sectors—including defence healthcare , and consumption-driven markets—offer strong long-term growth. Government fiscal measures, GST cuts, and domestic demand support these sectors. While Nifty earnings may grow 10–12%, broader opportunities lie beyond the index, providing multiple avenues for investment.One sector the Prime Minister highlighted was semiconductors. I believe the EMS sector will also accelerate and grow, benefiting from strategic investments in the semiconductor ecosystem. With the thaw in India-China relations, we could see more FDI and joint ventures, accelerating the buildout. The base is still relatively small, but the long-term growth runway is significant.I expect the Nifty to hit new highs before the end of the calendar year. Tariff issues may impact some sectors, but the government will likely provide fiscal support where needed. Overall, the market should remain resilient.The best way to play healthcare is through hospitals. Post-COVID, the sector has done very well, and India remains underpenetrated. Government schemes like Jan Aushadhi will keep generic medicines affordable, but health insurance and hospitals offer the best investment opportunities in this space.The government aims to support labour-intensive export sectors like textiles and leather. The GST rejig was also designed to boost domestic demand, cushioning exporters. While short-term challenges remain, long-term opportunities exist. Exporters may need to find new markets, and domestic consumption will continue to be the key driver.I would avoid rushing in. Most of the negative news is already priced in. For long-term investors, this could be a good entry point. While immediate gains may be limited, exporters will eventually adapt.The earnings season was neither exceptional nor terrible. Markets are forward-looking, and some high-ticket discretionary consumption may have been delayed due to anticipated GST cuts. While the first half of the year might show muted growth, the second half, especially the third quarter, should be strong for consumption. Nifty earnings growth may remain around 10–12%, with more significant opportunities beyond the index.
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