Heavy rains expected in Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands as Tropical Storm Erin nears
The storm is expected to remain over open waters, although tropical storm watches were issued for Anguilla and Barbuda, St. Martin and St. Barts, Saba and St. Eustatius and St. Maarten.
Heavy rains were forecast to start late Friday in Antigua and Barbuda, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Up to 4 inches are expected, with isolated totals of up to 6 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Forecasters also warned of dangerous swells.
The storm was located about 520 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. It had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and was moving west-northwest at 17 mph.
Hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry said Erin is forecast to eventually take a sharp turn northeast that would put it on a path between the U.S. and Bermuda.
'The forecasts for next week still keep the future hurricane safely east of the mainland U.S.,' he said.
Erin is forecast to become a major Category 3 storm late this weekend.
The hurricane center noted 'there is still uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range.'
Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to affect the U.S. East Coast next week, with waves reaching up to 15 feet (5 meters) along parts of the North Carolina coast that could cause beach erosion, according to Accuweather.
'Erin is forecast to explode into a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it moves across very warm waters in the open Atlantic. Water temperatures at the surface and hundreds of feet deep are several degrees higher than the historical average,' said Alex DaSilva, Accuweather's lead hurricane expert.
Erin is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
This year's season is once again expected to be unusually busy. The forecast calls for six to 10 hurricanes, with three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph.
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Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Rapid intensification? Hurricane forecasters say Erin's winds could skyrocket.
Tropical Storm Erin, now spinning far out in the central Atlantic Ocean, could undergo rapid intensification into a powerful 125-mph hurricane over the next few days, meteorologists said in an Aug. 14 advisory. This phenomenon can cause a tropical storm to escalate into a hurricane or a hurricane to jump one or more categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale in less than a day. An early Aug. 14 forecast from the National Hurricane Center said that Erin was forecast to undergo rapid intensification, but based on new data, a later forecast called for "steady" intensification over the next few days. "Erin is moving into an environment with very warm water temperatures, and it's not going to exit that environment for at least 5 or 6 days," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in his Substack The Eyewall. "Erin should begin to tap into this environment over the next couple days, and it's possible that we see a burst of rapid intensification at some point." Regardless, the environment ahead looks ripe for Erin to become a powerful major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend, and the storm is forecast to be nearing Category 4 strength as it turns into the western Atlantic early next week, noted WPLG hurricane specialist Michael Lowry in an Aug. 14 Substack post. Though not currently thought to be direct threat to land, Erin's waves are forecast to batter the East Coast with high surf and the threat of dangerous rip currents for beachgoers. What is rapid intensification? Why is it dangerous? Rapid intensification is a process in which a storm undergoes accelerated growth: The phenomenon is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) intensifying by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. As of the 11 a.m. ET advisory from the hurricane center, a rise of 30 mph in 24 hours is expected. Whatever happens with Erin, rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes are especially dangerous because they can give the public less time to prepare and often catch people off guard, AccuWeather said. "Predicting a storm's peak intensity and its intensity at landfall is one of the most difficult aspects of weather forecasting, and a rapidly intensifying hurricane adds tremendously to that challenge," according to AccuWeather. What causes rapid intensification? "Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an extremely conducive environment," Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said. "Typically, this environment consists of very warm water, low vertical wind shear and high levels of midlevel moisture." Such sudden spikes have been the hallmark of history's most fearsome hurricanes, Ken Graham, former director of the hurricane center and now director of the National Weather Service, told USA TODAY in 2022. Out of the nine hurricanes with winds of 150 mph or greater that struck the U.S. mainland over 103 years, all but one saw the explosion of force and power known as rapid intensification. What is the Saffir-Simpson scale? Hurricanes are measured by wind speed, with the higher categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale corresponding to more intense storms. Here's the full scale: Category / Sustained Winds: 1: 74-95 mph 2: 96-110 mph 3: 111-129 mph 4: 130-156 mph 5: 157 mph or higher This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane 'rapid intensification' worries return with Erin
UPI
an hour ago
- UPI
Erin to rapidly strengthen, reach major hurricane status this weekend
1 of 2 | Hurricane Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane by 2 a.m. Sunday. Tracking by the National Hurricane Center Aug. 15 (UPI) -- Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season on Friday morning and is forecast to rapidly strengthen as it heads near the Leeward Islands, and later Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. In its 10 a.m. EDT update, the National Hurricane Center said Erin became a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph -- just 2 mph above the tropical storm designation. In the 4 p.m. update, Erin remained at 75 mph. Erin was 365 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, and was moving west-northwest at 17 mph in warm waters. The NHC said the motion is expected to continue through the weekend with some decrease in forward speed. With rapid strengthening the next two to three days, Eric is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend with winds at least 111 mph. On the forecast track, Erin is likely to go just north of the Northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Erin is forecast to reach Category 4 at 130 mph on Monday, the NHC said. By 2 p.m., Wednesday, the storm was forecast to be a few hundred miles west of Bermuda and outside the big tracking cone. "While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the East coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along western Atlantic beaches next week," NHC forecaster Jack Beven wrote in a discussion. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for Anguilla and Barbuda, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 75 miles from the center, and tropical-force winds outward to 115 miles. Marine warnings are in effect for the Atlantic, Caribbean and southwest Atlantic and the southwest North Atlantic. The NHC said Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands -- which include Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Martin, St. Barts, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat -- should expect heavy rainfall Friday night through Sunday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast with isolated totals of 6 inches. It could lead to flash and urban flooding, along with landslides and mudslides. Swells will begin affecting this area and will spread to the western Atlantic next week. Wind gusts or tropical storm-force winds are possible in rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. "Do not underestimate the power of a major hurricane even passing by offshore," Alex DaSilva, the lead hurricane expert with AccuWeather, said. "These massive storms produce very rough surf and lethal rip currents that can impact beaches even hundreds of miles away." The previous four named Atlantic storms this year were Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. None of them became hurricanes, and Chantal was the only one to make landfall in the United States, causing significant flooding in North Carolina. Helene struck that state last year as a tropical storm, causing an estimated $53 billion in damage, after hitting western Florida as a Category 4 hurricane. Four other hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2024: Beryl, Debby, Francine and Milton.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Erin likely to grow into a major hurricane this weekend
Erin intensified into the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season on Friday morning as it continues to organize east of the Lesser Antilles. Forecasters expect the system to grow into a formidable major hurricane by this weekend, with the latest prediction calling for a Category 4 hurricane by Sunday. All interests in the Antilles, Bermuda, eastern U.S., and Atlantic Canada should continue to monitor the progress of this storm in the days ahead. DON'T MISS: Erin expected to steadily strengthen Hurricane hunters flying through the storm Friday morning found that Erin's winds had increased to 120 km/h, making it the first hurricane in the Atlantic this season. Erin will continue tracking west-northwest over the next couple of days, with the core of the storm passing north of the Lesser Antilles. The hurricane's outer bands may affect several of the islands through Saturday, prompting tropical storm watches for: Anguilla and Barbuda St. Martin and St. Barthelemy Saba and St. Eustatius Sint Maarten Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across these islands as Erin passes north of the region over the next couple of days. The latest advisory from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) calls for 'steady to rapid strengthening' into a major hurricane by Saturday, potentially growing into a high-end hurricane by Sunday. Potential Canadian impacts uncertain at this time Forecasters expect a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic to weaken in the days ahead, which will allow Erin to begin turning toward the north through the first half of next week. Interests across the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda should closely monitor the track of the storm as it curves through the region over the next five to seven days. SEE ALSO: Current signals show that steering winds may allow Erin to then turn northeast and track around that ridge in the central Atlantic. However, a trough swinging across Eastern Canada also has the potential to 'absorb' the hurricane and swing it back toward Atlantic Canada. The timing of this trough is highly uncertain at this time, but it highlights that folks across the region should continue closely monitoring the latest updates. Rip currents a major hazard Regardless of Erin's track, rough surf and rip currents will pose a significant hazard to beaches throughout the Antilles, eastern U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada as the hurricane both strengthens and grows in size over the next week. Rip currents form when waves hit the beach head-on, creating narrow currents of water that rush back out to sea. STAY SAFE: These currents don't pull you underwater like they show on television—instead, they quickly pull you away from the beach out to sea. Swimmers often exhaust themselves trying to fight against the current, sometimes to the point of succumbing to the waves. Always heed the advice and orders of local officials and stay out of the water if there's a threat for rip currents. Don't panic if you're ever caught in a rip current. If you can't swim, calmly signal for help and tread water until assistance arrives. Swimmers should swim parallel to the beach until you're out of the rip current, then swim back to shore. WATCH: What is a rip current and what makes it so dangerous? Click here to view the video
