The Sunday Independent's View: Donald Trump only knows how to make threats, not deals
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu also flew home to the Middle East last week without agreeing to the ceasefire in Gaza that negotiators in the US and Israeli camps had promised was imminent. Casualties among Palestinians queuing for aid continue to mount.
The president's most conspicuous failure to strike a deal, however, has undoubtedly been on the thorny issue of US-EU trade, and those negotiations have now taken a further, and alarming, backwards step with his announcement yesterday afternoon of new 30pc tariffs on all goods from the European Union.
So much for the White House press secretary's assurance just days ago that any changes to the 10pc tariffs introduced in April would be put back to a new deadline of August 1.
It could be that a deal is still on the cards. Even as he declared himself 'hopeful' that an outline agreement could be reached last week, Taoiseach Micheál Martin was under no illusions that more detailed negotiations would continue behind the scenes. The real concern is whether Donald Trump actually wants a deal, or what the EU can do to press him into making concessions.
It remains to be seen how markets will respond when they open again
The president has indicated that any tariffs imposed in retaliation to this move will simply be added to that baseline 30pc, and that even this will not be sufficient to eliminate the deficit in trade that the US runs with Europe, raising the threat of more punishment to come.
It remains to be seen how markets will respond when they open again tomorrow, but the omens cannot be good.
Traders have, to some extent, learnt to factor in Trump's volatility, but this represents a serious ramping up of the stakes.
For Ireland, the world's third largest exporter of pharmaceutical products, the nightmare scenario is that Trump goes ahead with his repeated warning of 200pc tariffs on the pharma industry in an effort to strong-arm US giants into bringing manufacturing home.
Many of those who are resentful of Ireland's economic success actively seem to be willing the worst to happen. One headline in the Tory press last week asked, almost wistfully: 'Will Trump's pharma tariffs destroy the Irish economy?'
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Even if Trump presses that nuclear button, tariffs would not come into place for another 18 months, allowing time for further haggling.
The Irish economy should remain reassuringly robust overall, with growth expected to exceed 4pc annually through 2027 — well ahead of the eurozone. Panic would be premature.
All the same, it is hard to deny that Ireland seems to worm under Trump's thin skin, and our EU partners may well be inclined to prioritise their own interests if he comes gunning for us.
Ultimately, it could be that a deal is simply impossible because the US president's demands are so mercurial that they cannot reasonably be satisfied. The one thing the world needs is certainty, and his personality ensures this is the one thing that it cannot expect to enjoy any time soon.
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RTÉ News
35 minutes ago
- RTÉ News
Next fortnight crucial for Ireland amid US tariff threats
There's no doubt US President Donald Trump's threat of 30% tariffs is a significant blow to both the European Union and Ireland. Earlier this week, Taoiseach Micheál Martin expressed hopes that Brussels and Washington could agree a framework deal which would pause any escalation in trade tensions. But Mr Trump's letter to the EU, dated last Friday, suggests a positive short-term arrangement is less likely. The next two weeks will be crucial for Ireland and the EU. In the immediate term nothing changes - tariffs of 10% are still being imposed by the US on EU goods. The exceptions remain the pharmaceutical and computer chip manufacturing sectors, both enormously important to the Irish economy. Mr Trump's announcement now raises the damaging prospect of 30% tariffs being imposed if a deal is not reached by 1 August. His intervention to make the threat in the middle of EU-US negotiations has sent shockwaves through European capitals. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned of "proportionate countermeasures" if the US hikes its tariffs on imports from the EU. There is no guarantee Mr Trump will follow through on his ultimatum on 1 August - the deadline has already been shifted from 9 July. Nor is there any certainty the rate will be 30%. Previously, he has suggested tariffs of 20% and 50% on EU goods. The EU's position is to remain calm and continue negotiations - while turning up the rhetoric on the likelihood of reciprocal countermeasures. But for Irish exporters, the lack of certainty is now even more pronounced. Businesses don't know when to expect increased tariffs or what the rate might be. This unpredictability undermines the business rationale for making further investments - and further investments equal jobs. In parallel with the threat of 30% tariffs, the US is investigating trading arrangements for the pharmaceutical and computer chip manufacturing sectors. Nobody can presume their escape from tariffs to date will remain the position in future. Tomorrow morning, stock markets and bond markets will reopen - their response to Mr Trump's burst of letter-writing will be crucial. In April, when the markets took fright at the US president's tough talk on tariffs, leading to a jump in the US cost of borrowing, he quickly backed down. Now, however, the political and financial environments may have shifted. His success in having his tax cuts bill approved by Congress may have emboldened him to return to tariff threats on various countries, including EU member states.
Irish Independent
an hour ago
- Irish Independent
Minister hopeful Trump's new tariff threat will not start trade war as EU delays retaliation
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Irish Daily Mirror
an hour ago
- Irish Daily Mirror
Croke Park demonstration in support of Palestine kids denied entry for GAA tour
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