ASPI senior defence analyst says Australia needs to be prepared for ‘protracted war'
A senior security expert has warned of the 'very clear threat' of China invading Taiwan, urging Australia to upgrade its defence capabilities and warning that Australia 'needs to be ready for the prospect' of war.
Malcolm Davis, a senior defence strategy analyst at conservative think tank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, urged the government to increase spending to safeguard against China's rising aggression and influence in the Pacific.
The comments come as US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth called on Australia to uplift its spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP, with levels currently set to increase to 2.33 per cent by 2033-34.
Australia's defence budget is expected to come under further scrutiny with Anthony Albanese expected to have a face-to-face meeting with US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of this weekend's G7 Leaders Summit in Canada.
Speaking to Sky on Monday, Mr Davis agreed with comments from US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and said there was 'very clear threat that China is going to move on Taiwan within the next to three years'.
He said Australia needed to ensure that our military assets were up to the task of responding to a 'protracted war,' flagging the need for improved resilience against 'integrated air and missile defence systems'.
'(Defence spending) needs to include sustainability and building sustainability for protracted war that could last months or years in our region, and ensure that we can stay in the fight, a high intensity fight, for that period of time,' he said.
'And it includes preparedness and essentially, the ability to respond to challenges and attacks on our society and our country.
'I think that we do need to be ready for the prospect that if war does happen, Australia will be attacked directly.'
Mr Davis said the spending needed to be accelerated 'not in 10 years' but in a 'year or two,' adding that investment needs to also be 'smart and targeted'.
The defence expert also said critical infrastructure in Australia's north, like RWF Tindall, ports, oil and energy facilities were all 'essentially undefended'.
'The government talks about building integrated air and missile defence systems, and they have developed the command and control system for that, but they don't have any missiles to shoot with,' he continued.
'They talk about possibly using a naval based missile or an air based missile, but those platforms have to be in the right place at the right time.'
Although Defence Minister Richard Marles has left the door open for further discussions with the US, stating that the government was 'clearly willing to have the conversation with America,' he said the outcome will be based on Australia's 'national interest'.
'We will work it through from there and make sure that we do the appropriate defence spending based on meeting the strategic moment,' he told Sky.
Mr Albanese has recently clashed with the conservative think tank after it released a report stating a 'generational investment' in defence has been 'put off for another generation'.
Report author and former home affairs deputy secretary Mark Ablong said a failure to boost defence 'will make all Australians less secure,' and 'risks a brittle and hollowed defence force' and a 'paper ADF'.
However Mr Albanese rubbished the report as 'predictable' and political and stood by the government's plan.
'ASPI regularly produce these sort of reports, you know, run by people who have been in a position to make a difference in the past as part of former governments,' he told ABC radio.
'You know, I think it's predictable, frankly.'
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The no-confidence motion and its disruption to government risks the state missing the deadlines laid down in the licensing agreement with the AFL. Yet the Labor leader insists he will continue to support the stadium should he find himself at the helm. That's despite the stadium diktat imposed by the AFL being deeply unpopular across Tasmania, not least because no similar demands were made of other recent regional additions to the league. An assessment by the independent Tasmanian Planning Commission was damning. The roofed 23,000-seat structure, it said, was "disproportionate to Hobart's small scale and would be contrary to Hobart's visual values". An artist's impression of what it would look from the eastern shore of the Derwent is like a still from sci-fi movie, an alien mothership squatting under the snowy flanks of kunanyi, dwarfing the heritage buildings around it. No wonder Hobart hates the idea. What's irksome from my non-sporting mainland perspective is the power wielded by the AFL. To set such onerous conditions on a state that wants to field its own team in the national comp is bad enough. To have the federal government pitch in with a promise of millions is even worse. This is when the AFL is flush with cash from a $4.5 billion TV licensing deal with the Seven Network and Foxtel. To use the vernacular of the querulous Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie, if they want a stadium with a roof, they can bloody well pay for it. HAVE YOUR SAY: Has Big Sport become too powerful in Australia? Should mainland taxpayers help pay for the Tasmanian stadium? Do both major parties in Tasmania look foolish for backing the stadium despite the opposition to it? Email us: echidna@ SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: - The ABC has announced the end of the political panel program Q+A after 18 years on air. - Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dismissed as "predictable" criticism of Australia's move to join four other countries in hitting two right-wing Israeli ministers with sanctions over West Bank settlements, as the opposition demands a briefing on the decision. - The number of industrial disputes has fallen to a two-year low, new figures reveal, despite major work outages affecting public transport commuters. THEY SAID IT: "The state government needs to go and tell the AFL where to stick it right now and tell them it's not going to play the game." - Senator Jacqui Lambie YOU SAID IT: The shooting of an Aussie reporter with a rubber bullet during the Los Angeles unrest reinforces the feeling the US is becoming an unsafe banana republic. "How long, I wonder, before we see a travel warning issued for the US?" asks Liz. "Calling it 'law and order' while pardoning actual insurrectionists is like burning down a fire station and calling it urban renewal," writes Mike. "The republic doesn't just smell like banana - it's practically slipping on the peel in front of the whole world." "I am a resident of Minnesota, a democratic state in the USA, and am appalled at the whole Trump situation over here, but especially when the Australian reporter was purposely shot with the rubber bullet," writes Carolyn. "I encourage people to stay away from my country for the foreseeable future which makes me sad because I have had wonderful visits from friends from your beautiful country." Allan, who lived in Los Angeles for six years in the 1980s, writes: "We've visited the USA numerous times since, but never again. Our initial concerns as we've grown older were with their health system, where serious illness could literally cost millions. Now the political situation is what worries us. I wouldn't rule out something akin to civil war the way things are escalating. But no, I don't think Albanese should raise the Tomasi shooting with Trump personally, it would achieve nothing and detract from other more important discussions." "Civil war was averted when Trump won the election," writes Arthur. "It now looks as though it was only a temporary reprieve." This is a sample of The Echidna newsletter sent out each weekday morning. To sign up for FREE, go to Imagine you open your letter box and there are four bills inside, one for each member of your family, including the two kids who are still at school. You open them and the amount each of you owe is $1247. That's roughly what each and every Tasmanian will be up for if the lower estimate of the cost of the contentious Macquarie Point stadium - $945 million - is accurate. This takes into account the federal pledge of $240 million, announced during a disastrous visit to the site by Anthony Albanese in April 2023, which saw him beating a hasty retreat as a crowd of hecklers descended on the event demanding that money be spent on desperately needed housing. The bill for Tasmanians will be even more if the higher estimate of $1.1 billion proves correct. Of course, there'll be no bill in the mail. The cost will be borne by what's not spent in other areas like health, education, infrastructure and affordable housing and the estimated $1.86 billion in debt racked up over a decade. It's a lot of bread for a circus. The state's ballooning debt was the trigger for the Labor opposition's successful no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff which has put government on hold while the governor works out whether to grant the request for an early election or ask the parliament to seek an alternative leader. The no-confidence motion and its disruption to government risks the state missing the deadlines laid down in the licensing agreement with the AFL. Yet the Labor leader insists he will continue to support the stadium should he find himself at the helm. That's despite the stadium diktat imposed by the AFL being deeply unpopular across Tasmania, not least because no similar demands were made of other recent regional additions to the league. An assessment by the independent Tasmanian Planning Commission was damning. The roofed 23,000-seat structure, it said, was "disproportionate to Hobart's small scale and would be contrary to Hobart's visual values". An artist's impression of what it would look from the eastern shore of the Derwent is like a still from sci-fi movie, an alien mothership squatting under the snowy flanks of kunanyi, dwarfing the heritage buildings around it. No wonder Hobart hates the idea. What's irksome from my non-sporting mainland perspective is the power wielded by the AFL. To set such onerous conditions on a state that wants to field its own team in the national comp is bad enough. To have the federal government pitch in with a promise of millions is even worse. This is when the AFL is flush with cash from a $4.5 billion TV licensing deal with the Seven Network and Foxtel. To use the vernacular of the querulous Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie, if they want a stadium with a roof, they can bloody well pay for it. HAVE YOUR SAY: Has Big Sport become too powerful in Australia? Should mainland taxpayers help pay for the Tasmanian stadium? Do both major parties in Tasmania look foolish for backing the stadium despite the opposition to it? Email us: echidna@ SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: - The ABC has announced the end of the political panel program Q+A after 18 years on air. - Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dismissed as "predictable" criticism of Australia's move to join four other countries in hitting two right-wing Israeli ministers with sanctions over West Bank settlements, as the opposition demands a briefing on the decision. - The number of industrial disputes has fallen to a two-year low, new figures reveal, despite major work outages affecting public transport commuters. THEY SAID IT: "The state government needs to go and tell the AFL where to stick it right now and tell them it's not going to play the game." - Senator Jacqui Lambie YOU SAID IT: The shooting of an Aussie reporter with a rubber bullet during the Los Angeles unrest reinforces the feeling the US is becoming an unsafe banana republic. "How long, I wonder, before we see a travel warning issued for the US?" asks Liz. "Calling it 'law and order' while pardoning actual insurrectionists is like burning down a fire station and calling it urban renewal," writes Mike. "The republic doesn't just smell like banana - it's practically slipping on the peel in front of the whole world." "I am a resident of Minnesota, a democratic state in the USA, and am appalled at the whole Trump situation over here, but especially when the Australian reporter was purposely shot with the rubber bullet," writes Carolyn. "I encourage people to stay away from my country for the foreseeable future which makes me sad because I have had wonderful visits from friends from your beautiful country." Allan, who lived in Los Angeles for six years in the 1980s, writes: "We've visited the USA numerous times since, but never again. Our initial concerns as we've grown older were with their health system, where serious illness could literally cost millions. Now the political situation is what worries us. I wouldn't rule out something akin to civil war the way things are escalating. But no, I don't think Albanese should raise the Tomasi shooting with Trump personally, it would achieve nothing and detract from other more important discussions." "Civil war was averted when Trump won the election," writes Arthur. "It now looks as though it was only a temporary reprieve." This is a sample of The Echidna newsletter sent out each weekday morning. To sign up for FREE, go to Imagine you open your letter box and there are four bills inside, one for each member of your family, including the two kids who are still at school. You open them and the amount each of you owe is $1247. That's roughly what each and every Tasmanian will be up for if the lower estimate of the cost of the contentious Macquarie Point stadium - $945 million - is accurate. This takes into account the federal pledge of $240 million, announced during a disastrous visit to the site by Anthony Albanese in April 2023, which saw him beating a hasty retreat as a crowd of hecklers descended on the event demanding that money be spent on desperately needed housing. The bill for Tasmanians will be even more if the higher estimate of $1.1 billion proves correct. Of course, there'll be no bill in the mail. The cost will be borne by what's not spent in other areas like health, education, infrastructure and affordable housing and the estimated $1.86 billion in debt racked up over a decade. It's a lot of bread for a circus. The state's ballooning debt was the trigger for the Labor opposition's successful no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff which has put government on hold while the governor works out whether to grant the request for an early election or ask the parliament to seek an alternative leader. The no-confidence motion and its disruption to government risks the state missing the deadlines laid down in the licensing agreement with the AFL. Yet the Labor leader insists he will continue to support the stadium should he find himself at the helm. That's despite the stadium diktat imposed by the AFL being deeply unpopular across Tasmania, not least because no similar demands were made of other recent regional additions to the league. An assessment by the independent Tasmanian Planning Commission was damning. The roofed 23,000-seat structure, it said, was "disproportionate to Hobart's small scale and would be contrary to Hobart's visual values". An artist's impression of what it would look from the eastern shore of the Derwent is like a still from sci-fi movie, an alien mothership squatting under the snowy flanks of kunanyi, dwarfing the heritage buildings around it. No wonder Hobart hates the idea. What's irksome from my non-sporting mainland perspective is the power wielded by the AFL. To set such onerous conditions on a state that wants to field its own team in the national comp is bad enough. To have the federal government pitch in with a promise of millions is even worse. This is when the AFL is flush with cash from a $4.5 billion TV licensing deal with the Seven Network and Foxtel. To use the vernacular of the querulous Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie, if they want a stadium with a roof, they can bloody well pay for it. HAVE YOUR SAY: Has Big Sport become too powerful in Australia? Should mainland taxpayers help pay for the Tasmanian stadium? Do both major parties in Tasmania look foolish for backing the stadium despite the opposition to it? Email us: echidna@ SHARE THE LOVE: If you enjoy The Echidna, forward it to a friend so they can sign up, too. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: - The ABC has announced the end of the political panel program Q+A after 18 years on air. - Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dismissed as "predictable" criticism of Australia's move to join four other countries in hitting two right-wing Israeli ministers with sanctions over West Bank settlements, as the opposition demands a briefing on the decision. - The number of industrial disputes has fallen to a two-year low, new figures reveal, despite major work outages affecting public transport commuters. THEY SAID IT: "The state government needs to go and tell the AFL where to stick it right now and tell them it's not going to play the game." - Senator Jacqui Lambie YOU SAID IT: The shooting of an Aussie reporter with a rubber bullet during the Los Angeles unrest reinforces the feeling the US is becoming an unsafe banana republic. "How long, I wonder, before we see a travel warning issued for the US?" asks Liz. "Calling it 'law and order' while pardoning actual insurrectionists is like burning down a fire station and calling it urban renewal," writes Mike. "The republic doesn't just smell like banana - it's practically slipping on the peel in front of the whole world." "I am a resident of Minnesota, a democratic state in the USA, and am appalled at the whole Trump situation over here, but especially when the Australian reporter was purposely shot with the rubber bullet," writes Carolyn. "I encourage people to stay away from my country for the foreseeable future which makes me sad because I have had wonderful visits from friends from your beautiful country." Allan, who lived in Los Angeles for six years in the 1980s, writes: "We've visited the USA numerous times since, but never again. Our initial concerns as we've grown older were with their health system, where serious illness could literally cost millions. Now the political situation is what worries us. I wouldn't rule out something akin to civil war the way things are escalating. But no, I don't think Albanese should raise the Tomasi shooting with Trump personally, it would achieve nothing and detract from other more important discussions." "Civil war was averted when Trump won the election," writes Arthur. "It now looks as though it was only a temporary reprieve."
