Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy's race-by-race analysis and tips for Hawkesbury on Saturday

Herald Sun

02-05-2025

Ron Dufficy says the All Aged Stakes form is hard to ignore for his value tip at Hawkesbury. Check out Duff and Ray Thomas' race-by-race preview.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central's form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances in all 10 races at the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting on Saturday.
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DUFF'S BEST VALUE
RACE 8 No. 4: OSIPENKO
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RACE 1: MIDWAY HCP (1500m)
Ron Dufficy: I'm going with JUMEIRAH BEACH (10) in the first. He had a confidence-boosting midweek win in Brisbane on the soft track last start. His previous two Midway runs were solid and I think he's got nice credentials at double-figure odds. VINTAGE CHOICE (3) might not have won in a long, long time but I feel he is in career-best form and he was excellent in the Provincial-Midway Championships Final. He does have gate speed, too. PRINCE OF SORTS (4) is an underrated horse. He got back further than expected last start and did more than enough. He is only a three-year-old and his previous win was good. HERB (12) is hard to catch but he had a nice lead-up run when he was unlucky on this track and this looks to be a target race.
Ray Thomas: A tough opener. I'm going a little wide with MISS HADES (5) at generous odds. The likelihood of a heavy track does concern me but I thought her first-up run when a close sixth at Warwick Farm was a lot better than it reads on paper as she had no galloping room in the straight. Genuine mare who gets the benefit of the claim, too. NORTHERN EYES (2) was working his way back into form then also was devoid of luck at Randwick last start. Give him another chance. STARBOARD (11) never runs a bad race and VINTAGE CHOICE (3) is close to a win.
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RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1500m)
Dufficy: This race is nearly impossible. CANADIAN RULER (1) has a bit of weight but gets the claim and sets up well at his fourth run in and after a win. He is going well for the new stable and has a lovely racing style. MIDNIGHT AFFAIR (11) had a more than acceptable lead-up in a stronger race than this when she finished off hard. STRAIGHT FIRE (8) did enough first-up to suggest he has come back stronger. CALL ME TERRY (10) is busting to win another race and back in trip with the big weight was against him last start. He is in the mix.
Thomas: CANADIAN RULER (1) is racing consistently and brings winning form to Hawkesbury after scoring comfortably at Canberra last start. He's got to carry topweight in the wet conditions but he should be very competitive again. Plenty of dangers including KOTAISHI (6), an improving sprinter with soft track form and STRAIGHT FIRE (8) who was good first-up. CALL ME TERRY (10) also stays under notice as he is very fit, gets in well at the weights, and handles wet tracks.
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RACE 3: ST JOHNS PARK BOWLING CLUB CLARENDON STAKES (1400m)
Dufficy: I'm pretty keen on AERODROME (1). He created a big impression on debut, he looks a likely type for the future and has to be hard to beat. If he comes to Hawkesbury, WENTWORTH FALLS (7) should run well. He was very good charging late at Kembla when dragged back from a wide draw so he probably has the right grounding for this race. DAMIEN (2) landed some good bets winning easily first-up on the speed. The time was only steady but he looks an improver. ONE STEP CLOSER (10) looks a nice middle-distance type for the future. He did start favourite in that Kembla lead-up and he has more to offer.
Thomas: AERODROME (1) was impressive on debut, scoring with authority. He looks a talented two-year-old and although there is a query about him on the wet track, there is no evidence to suggest he won't handle it, either. I'm happy to be with Aerodrome from WENTWORTH FALLS (7) who is the big improver. I've got the same top three with DAMIEN (2) as next best but I'm wary of SERPICO (6) who although well beaten when third to Aerodrome, should run a strong 1400m.
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RACE 4: CLARENDON TAVERN BM78 HCP (1100m)
Dufficy: I want to give WORLD ALLIANCE (4) another chance here. He has been back to the trials since an inconclusive run at Kembla Grange. His previous form was great for a race like this and I have to give him another chance. EPIC PROPORTIONS (8) is one at big odds who should be closely monitored. He has been hard held in two trials and does have great fresh form. IRON MAN (3) was good first-up and this is a lovely race for him at home back to 1100m. He deserves another win. RANVEER (6) is another of these interesting Matt Laurie-trained runners who has had a couple of nice jumpouts in Victoria and has good fresh form.
Thomas:IRON MAN (3) was held up for a run for most of the final 400m but still ran a close fifth when resuming at Randwick. Consistent sprinter, strips fitter here, handles wet tracks and has won second-up from a spell. SPANISH FOX (1) reeled off five successive wins before his spell last spring and resumes here at the track where his winning streak started. He's unknown on a heavy track but he's trialled well and should go close. WORLD ALLIANCE (4) rates among the main chances for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. ONE DESTINY (7) scored a tough win at Warwick Farm last start and he is a superior wet-tracker.
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RACE 5: BLAKE MARINE BM78 HCP (1800m)
Dufficy: I quite like QUANTUM CAT (4), Ray. He got chopped out when building momentum last start when resuming and wasn't knocked about. I'm not sure about him in the wet but apart from that he is very likeable. This does look a lovely set-up for JAMBEROO (2) second-up from a spell. He ticks lots of bases liking the wet and his adaptability of going forward in a race that lacks speed. BLACK RUN (5) showed some encouraging signs racing well on debut in Australia and should lift off that run. ARISTONOUS (10) comes out of the same Warwick Farm race as many of his rivals and he worked home well that day.
Thomas: I've also found QUANTUM CAT (4). He's still trying to get out from his Warwick Farm comeback run and although he is going straight to 1800m, this is his preferred distance range. PHILIPSBURG (3) has won successive Brisbane races, has never been in better form and handles wet tracks. JAMBEROO (2) and AWESOME WONDER (6) ran second and sixth when resuming in the same Warwick Farm race Quantum Cat contested and both will be improved. — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 16, 2025
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RACE 6: HAWKESBURY GUINEAS (1400m)
Dufficy: I've always been a fan of JUST PARTY (4). He has been gelded before this preparation, I was very taken by his most recent trial. He is a better horse than his form reads and only has to handle the soft track to run very well. MEDIA WORLD (9) is another colt I have always liked and good to see him start off his preparation with a win. MODELLA (14) had excuses when wide the other day and doing a few things wrong but she is a real knockout chance. Going forward I think she has plenty to offer. CANDLEWICK (13) is well-liked in the market and although she didn't beat a strong lot at Warwick Farm she did it well and I'm sure the stable has an opinion of her.
Thomas:MEDIA WORLD (9) showed plenty of determination to endure a tough run and still beat older horses when resuming at Warwick Farm. Promising colt who won at the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting last year and will go close again. MODELLA (14) was never on the track at Randwick and still ran bravely. Underrated filly who will need luck from her wide draw but is capable of running a very competitive race. PISCES (1) has been improved by two runs from a spell and he does have wet track form. SNITZANOVA (2) is resuming but she's a talented filly who won the Sandown Guineas on a heavy track last spring and must be considered.
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RACE 7: HAWKESBURY CROWN (1300m)
Dufficy: I know LADY LAGUNA (2) had no excuses last start but she is third-up now and I love where she will settle in a race where there is no speed. This is her best distance. While there is no speed that gives BELCLARE (1) a very good chance. She was good first-up in the All Aged Stakes and the wide draw won't be an issue given the speed she has got. Last year's winner COCO JAMBOO (7) sets up well here after two encouraging runs. TASHI (10) is going well without winning, has an inner draw and should be around the mark again.
Thomas: LADY LAGUNA (2) is a top class mare fitter for recent racing. She's very effective on soft and heavy tracks, and she should get this race run to suit. TASHI (10) finished alongside Lady Laguna last start, she's drawn to get a soft run, handles all track conditions and is a definite each way chance. CITY OF LIGHTS (12) was very good when resuming and she's rates highly in a very open race. BELCLARE (1) gets an uncontested lead, ran competitively in the All Aged Stakes, and back against mares she will take running down.
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RACE 8: HAWKESBURY GOLD CUP (1600m)
Dufficy: I'm going with OSIPENKO (4). I thought he was very strong late in the All Aged Stakes and that has to be good form for this. The wet is OK and he should improve again. I think he may have got his confidence back after winning at the end of his last preparation. PUNCH LANE (5) is an obvious choice as he did it so well at both ends last week. Can he do it three weeks in a row at a mile – that's the gamble. But he looks to be flying and probably the pattern is vital for him and if the on-pacers are getting a fair go he will be hard to beat. MIGHTY ULYSSES (3) is the other one. Three of his six wins have been second-up and he has to be included in all the multiples. GREEN FLY (15) has a lethal finish when things fall in place and he appears good odds.
Thomas:TAVI TIME (9) had his share of weight first-up and had to make his run wide out but ran on strongly for a close second when resuming at Randwick. He's out to his optimum distance of 1600m, his second-up record is almost faultless, and he handles soft tracks. GREEN FLY (15) got too far back at Randwick last week but was finishing powerfully late. His first-up win at Rosehill was very impressive and he excels on soft and heavy tracks. He's a definite lightweight chance. PUNCH LANE (5) led throughout to win well at Randwick last week and is backing up for the third week in a row but he's in top form and enjoys wet tracks. MATCHA LATTE (12) is also racing in top form, he has good tactical speed and will give himself every chance.
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RACE 9: HAWKESBURY XXXX GOLD RUSH (1100m)
Dufficy: Given the wet track conditions I want to be with IN FLIGHT (12). I feel she will grow a leg second-up on the soft track second-up, she loves the distance and fits in well. Her stablemate DRAGONSTONE (1) has the blinkers back on, he's a tough, competitive horse who handles all conditions. I just wish he had drawn a little better but back to 1100m suits him. BUBBA'S BAY (4) is trialling very well, looking really sharp, and she knows how to win as she has a great winning strike-rate. I'll be watching for any confidence in the market for her on track. FIRE STAR (9) was well fancied first-up and was OK but he's proven in the soft and can bounce back.
Thomas:BUBBA'S BAY (4) struck career-best form last preparation with four wins from six starts before a spell including twice at stakes level. Smart mare who kept improving when last in work. She resumes in a very open sprint but she's trialling up a storm and enjoys wet tracks. IN FLIGHT (12) was beaten by the very talented Pisanello at Canterbury when resuming but that's good form for this race. It's worth noting all of In Flight's five career wins have been on soft or heavy tracks. FIRE STAR (9) was unplaced in the Pisanello race but deserves another chance and DRAGONSTONE (1) will be charging home.
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RACE 10: THE LAWN SHED BM88 HANDICAP (1400m)
Dufficy:GALLANT STAR (7) didn't run to market expectations in the Country Championships Final but that form has been franked, he gets the claim, the race has enough speed up front and he finds a lovely stalking position. He will be hard to beat. MOBY DICK (10) ran through the line at his Sydney debut indicating 1400m will suit. EXCELLADUS (4) caught everyone's attention charging into dead ends late first-up. I'm not sure if this tight, turning track but he is sure to be running on hard again. The best of the rest is CHICA MOJITO (11) who is trialling really nicely and could surprise.
Thomas: I'm also staying with GALLANT STAR (7), Ron. Perhaps he is better ridden more conservatively early in his races as he has demonstrated a brilliant finishing burst in some of his wins. It was impossible to miss MOBY DICK's (10) last start effort and with even luck in running, he will be hard to beat. COOL JAKEY (3) is in very good form and makes his own luck racing on speed. IMPOSANT (13) is a very fit, in-form mare, she handles wet tracks and will be in the finish.
Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy's race-by-race analysis and tips for Hawkesbury on Saturday Horse Racing
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