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News.com.au
2 days ago
- Entertainment
- News.com.au
Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy's Rosehill Saturday tips, analysis: $3 best bet
Racenet and The Daily Telegraph's Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central's Ron Dufficy debate the chances in all 10 races – including the Listed Lord Mayor's Cup – at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. Ray and Duff also provide their selections for the three feature races at Eagle Farm on Saturday – the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup, the Group 1 Queensland Derby and Group 2 BRC Sires' Produce Stakes. • PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet's team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW! â– â– â– â– â– DUFF'S BEST BET Race 7 No.10 KERGUELEN • Professional punter James Molony's race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday â– â– â– â– â– Ron Dufficy: I think NAMASTE (2) is worth something at odds here. Not much went right for him first-up at Doomben in Group 2 company and with the blinkers on, he might get a level of control up front and give a sight. HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT (1) and SARAPO (3) are both likely looking types. They were both very good at Gosford when they ran the quinella and the extra 100m should suit them. SWIFT LEGEND (5) is another good longshot who was great making up a lot of ground over 1000m on debut and he should enjoy getting out to this distance. Ray Thomas: SARAPO (3), a son of English superhorse Frankel, was excellent on debut at Gosford, closing late for second to HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT (1). Sarapo went wide on the turn, copped a bump then once balanced finished his race off strongly. He will appreciate the bigger track at Rosehill and the extra 100m is ideal. No knock on Hidden Achievement who got the run of the race but executed well at Gosford. ZEBRA FINCH (6) hit the line well for third to Aerodrome at Hawkesbury a month ago and he's not out of this race. NAMASTE (2) will improve on his first-up effort and is also in the mix. Hidden Achievement makes it look effortless at Gosford! Adam Hyeronimus gets an early race-to-race double! ✌ï¸� @cwallerracing — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 10, 2025 • Shayne O'Cass's race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: BOYS NIGHT OUT (2) has a nice profile for this race. His past two Brisbane runs he has probably been unlucky, he maps well and the jar is out of the track so this looks ideal for him. WARRIOR FOR PEACE (10) created a big impression at Scone he charged home to win. This is harder but he does look to have plenty of ability. ROUGE MOULIN (4) gets a gear change and hasn't been far away at his past two Highway runs and the 3kg claim does help. NEW PHAROAH (9) was very strong at Scone but needs a touch of luck from that awkward draw. Thomas: WARRIOR FOR PEACE (10) produced a scarcely believable effort to come from near last and win at Scone. He's a promising three-year-old and although dropping back slightly in trip, he's going to be hard to hold out again. MY LAST HOORAY (3) had no luck at Randwick last week but was still a winning chance at the 200m. He's on the quick back-up and will enjoy getting out to 1500m. BOYS NIGHT OUT (2) is going to get the run of the race and is ready to win. CANADIAN RULER (1) is in great form but will need luck from the wide barrier. Warrior For Peace absolutely flies home on the outside to win at Scone! 🚀 @NockBraith | @cavanoughracing — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 16, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: This is a competitive race. HARRY'S BAR (8) is a sharp mare resuming who should get the right run from her good draw (barrier three) and I'm happy to go her way. I AM BRAVE (14) is only a three-year-old filly having her second start, is coming out of a country maiden win but she really captured the attention at Scone and she does have the pedigree. DON'T DOUBT MERLIN (10) can sprint well fresh, he has looked good at the trials. LADY EXTREME (7) is very genuine, tries hard and should run another really good race fresh. Thomas: I've gone with I AM BRAVE (14), Ronnie. She was heavily backed on debut and was very impressive, running time despite the soft track conditions at Scone. Drawn awkwardly so she will need luck to go her way but she does look a talented filly. LADY EXTREME (7) is resuming but is very genuine and will be hard to beat. I concede HARRY'S BAR (8) is going to be very competitive and OAKFIELD BADGER (3) is never far away in this grade. 'It's all over bar the shouting!' Harry's Bar raced on the speed and proved far too good in Race 2 at Canterbury ðŸ�‡ðŸ'¥ @racing_nsw | @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) August 28, 2024 • 'She's a nice filly': Freedmans' Brave call at Rosehill â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: One of the tougher races of the day, Ray. MAORI CHIEF (6) is a well-bred three-year-old, he's found winning form at both starts this preparation, and should secure a cosy run here. INTERJECTION (1) only has to run up to what he did two starts back to prove hard to beat – if you want to trust him. KADALL (7) hasn't won in a while but comes out of a few solid form races for this. MICKEY'S MEDAL (3) has been around the mark his last start back and should like getting back to 1500m. Thomas: I agree this is very open so I have gone a little wide with LIKE LUKEY (12). She's a consistent mare who ran a blinder first-up at Scone, running on from near last on the turn to finish second, only beaten a length. She bolted in second-up last preparation, is well drawn and is a great lightweight chance at double figure odds. FEAR NO EVIL (2) is having a very good debut preparation and should run well again. CALIFORNIA SUNRISE (13) is very genuine and working up to a win, while MAORI CHIEF (6) commands respect after his impressive wins on the Kensington track. 🙌 Maori Chief shows them how it's done at Randwick to make it two wins in a row! @cwallerracing | @nashhot | @gobloodstockaus | @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 14, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: ELLIPSIS (13) has been freshened with a trial since beating Flying Embers last start and she has won two races since. It reads well for Ellipsis and this market has been strong on her all week which is a good sign. SUMMER FLAME (5) may have been big odds winning at Scone first-up but I don't think there was any fluke in that effort as she has a touch of quality about her. DON'T FORGET JACK (6) has always shown plenty of raw talent and had a confidence-boosting win first-up. CODETTA (4) has trialled well enough and is a close yard and market watch. Thomas: I've also landed on ELLIPSIS (13). As you mentioned, her form has been franked and she's drawn to get the right run. SUMMER FLAME (5) comes off her game first-up win in the Denise's Joy Stakes at Scone and should could go right on with it here. LULUMON (1) was brilliant beating Storm The Ramparts at Gosford and the runner-up has since won. Lulumon also has a very good second-up record. CODETTA (4) is Riff Rocket's half-sister, she's got obvious potential and should sprint well fresh. It's Ellipsis winning by a nose in a photo finish in the 5th at Canterbury! ðŸ'¸ Jason Collett rides his second winner for the day! ✌ï¸� @BBakerRacing — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 21, 2025 • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I'm leaning to FURIOUS (3). I'm convinced he is ready to win third-up and getting out to this distance, the only little concern is he has to carry a big weight. PURE ALPHA (13) overdid things up front last start but should get cover in this race which will help him to relax better. SCALEXTRICS (8) does no work from the inside draw and won't be far away again. ENTER THE DRAGON (4) is hard to know, he just keeps finding a way to win. Thomas: This does look the right race for FURIOUS (3). He's had the two runs back and is ready to win after going under narrowly at Kensington last start. He should get the right run and this is his chance. ENTER THE DRAGON (4) has reeled off a hat-trick of wins, starting at longer odds each time, but deservedly is at the top of betting here and will be very hard to beat. NORTHERN EYES (5) and LITTLE COINTREAU (7) are racing well and are definite winning chances. ðŸ�‰ Enter The Dragon just holds on and wins in a fiery finish at Gosford! @GaiWaterhouse1 — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 10, 2025 • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: KERGUELEN (10) is off a decent break of 28 weeks but he's been well held together in a few trials, he's always had a big wrap on him and I'm confident he's presented to win. UNSTOPABULL (9) hit the line nicely first-up and he did win at his second run back last preparation. BRAVE ONE (16) is a three-year-old with talent who gets in light and should improve after an acceptable first-up run. SMASHING TIME (13) is a very good longshot. Thomas: I'm also with KERGUELEN (10). He's still very lightly-raced but hasn't missed a top two finish in five starts. As you pointed out, he has been held together in both his recent trials and goes to Rosehill fresh and ready. SPANISH FOX (2) put the writing on the wall with his third at Scone last start and he did win third-up last campaign. BRAVE ONE (16) is a good lightweight chance. That was impressive! ðŸ'� Kerguelen gets his second win at start three for @godolphin ðŸ'µ Easy as you like for @zaclloydx — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 10, 2024 • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: Where to go here? I do think this is a nice race for TOURISTIC (8). He was set a big task taking off early in the Gosford Cup but he wasn't bad so I think that might sharpen him up and he finds himself in a winnable race. MAJOR BEEL (1) is ready to put his best foot forward third-up at 2000m now and he will give plenty of cheek on speed. PRIVATE LEGACY (9) found winning form at stakes lever over this trip in Adelaide last start and she presents well here. DON DIEGO DE VEGA (11) has some solid fresh form and should be closely monitored if there is any market confidence about him. Thomas: PRIVATE LEGACY (9) comes off a very good win in the Centaurea Stakes at Morphettville and gets into this race on the 54kg limit. She's a talented mare with a strong finish. GLORY DAZE (5) is backing up after winning well at Randwick last week and is going to get the right run here. MAJOR BEEL (1) is fitter for recent racing and if he gets control up front, he will be tough to run down. I also have TOURISTIC (8) in my numbers. Touristic follows up a strong performance a fortnight ago to win today. @SchofieldChad @SnowdenRacing1 — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 1, 2023 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: With the scratching of Gentleschi I will stay with CORMAC T (8), a last start Scone winner. He should be around the mark again as he gets a similar sort of run here. KIND WORDS (7) also comes out of the Scone race where she finished fast to run third. She is always a knockout chance but needs things to fall into place. FREIGHT TRAIN (12) might be the one with different form coming out of Victoria and could shape up here. SEAFALL (4) needs luck from the draw but 1800m is ideal for her now she is on her home track. Thomas: KIND WORDS (7) finished fast to just miss when third to CORMAC T (8) at Scone. She's racing in peak form and gets her chance here. Cormac T comes off that tough win at Scone and will be very competitive again. SEAFALL (4) was impressive last start but the wide barrier is a leveller. GOOD PRIZE (2) has won four straight but has started at longer odds every time. Cormac T wins by a whisker in a very tight finish at Scone! ðŸ'� @ANeashamRacing | @tomo_sherry — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 17, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: LEFT FIELD (9) needs luck as she gets back in the field but there seems to be plenty of speed here, 1200m suits her better and she does have a big finish on her. WEEPING WOMAN (10) is a lightly-raced mare who did a good job winning two of her four starts last preparation. She is trialling well enough to be very competitive here. SO YOU PENCE (17) is very interesting as she is a talented country mare who has been impressive and could well be up to the class rise. Best of the rest could be PAJANTI (7) who was great first-up having no luck and if she reproduces that effort she could win. Thomas: Tough closer but I've gone with PAJANTI (7) each way. She stormed home to finish a close second when resuming, should be improved by that run, handles rain-affected tracks and has won second-up previously. SO YOU PENCE (17) is promising and would have been top pick but for her horror draw. LEFT FIELD (9) ran well at Scone and I can see why you have gone with her, Ronnie. WEEPING WOMAN (10) is resuming off a let-up but is a smart mare and will be in the finish. That’s a double for @GRyanRacing /Alexiou and Tim Clark, as Pajanti wins at @WyongRaceClub! — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 20, 2024 • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: GALLO NERO (2) went back from a wide draw first-up and then he did more than enough running on for second in the wet. This sets him up well for the Sires and I would expect a more positive ride from the better draw. AERODROME (7) is a very nice horse with a month freshen off his Hawkesbury win. I can understand why he is very likeable. BESKAR (13) has drawn to advantage and should be somewhere in the finish. GRAFTERBURNERS (1) sat wide and did well last start and 1400m should be suitable. Thomas: GALLO NERO (2) is a talented colt who closed fast at Doomben to just miss. He will be improved by the run and is the one to beat. AERODROME (7) has won both his starts, impressing with his powerful finishing sprint. GRAFTERBURNERS (1) has been crying out for 1400m and COOL ARCHIE (3) just keeps winning. Another winner for @munceracing, with Cool Archie getting the nose down in the Spirit Of Boom Classic! — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 17, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: There seems to be stable confidence about PRIVATE EYE (2). He has been unextended in three trials, we know he is a very good horse and he might be one at value now there is rain around. JOLIESTAR (10) has had six weeks and a soft trial between runs, fresh is good for her and her best just about wins this race. Hopefully, down the outside is OK as that is where she will be coming. GIGA KICK (1) did more than enough after getting a long way back and being shoved off the track in the Goodwood. He will improve with that run. KIMOCHI (11) can't be left out after a total forgive run last start and she has trialled well since. Thomas: I've gone with KIMOCHI (11) at double figure odds. She's an underrated mare who will get the perfect run from her good gate and will be very competitive. JOLIESTAR (10) is good enough to overcome her wide draw. GIGA KICK (1) is an outstanding sprinter on his day and he improves the further he gets into a preparation. We have the same top four but in a different order as PRIVATE EYE (2) usually sprints well fresh and is a top class sprinter. @GaryPortelli @CWilliamsJockey â€' (@Racing) November 16, 2024 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: A very tough Derby. BELLE DETELLE (17) is suited on the bigger track at Eagle Farm as she had to give an impossible start last time and hopefully you can run wide here. LAVALIER (6) did early work in Adelaide last start and his run was commendable. PARTY CRASHER (13) maps well on pace and has a turn of speed while CHASE YOUR DREAMS (18) is a good longshot. Thomas: I've gone wide with EXISTENTIAL BOB (15). I know he's a $41 chance but he's learned how to win, he can stay, and will make his own luck racing on speed. At the odds, he's worth the gamble. KING OF THUNDER (4) is a promising young stayer and LAVALIER (6) will run the trip right out. BELLE DETELLE (17) has drawn off the track but stays under notice.
News.com.au
23-05-2025
- Sport
- News.com.au
Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy's race-by-race tips, analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday: $5.50 best bet
Racenet and The Daily Telegraph's Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central's Ron Dufficy debate the key chances in all 10 races at Royal Randwick on Saturday. â– â– â– â– â– DUFF'S BEST BET Race 8 No.3 GREEN FLY DUFF'S NEXT BEST Race 5 No.7 AHURIRI â– â– â– â– â– Ron Dufficy: SEQUISTA (3) suffered some lacerations when she played up in the float at Gosford but she's a very talented filly. The gamble is 42 days between runs and a very heavy track but I'm happy to stick with her. The obvious dangers are AGARWOOD (5) who did it well winning with authority on her debut and looks to have a future, while REGULATED AFFAIR (2) ran slower time on the same day as Agarwood but maps well from the draw, and 1200m should suit. FEDERAL RESERVE (8) comes out of a hot form race and will take great benefit from that experience. Ray Thomas: AGARWOOD (5) impressed on debut, settling on pace then sprinting clear to win easily. The heavy track conditions are a query, as they are for all her rivals, but she handled the soft 6 track well at her only start. SEQUISTA (3) is a talented filly but she has had that break between runs as you pointed out and that race fitness edge Agarwood has might be the difference. REGULATED AFFAIR (2) shown promise in both starts including his strong last start win so he rates as the main danger to the two fillies. I AM ADONIS (9) is a well-bred colt in the right stable and is one to watch. A very nice win to Agarwood at Warwick Farm! ðŸ'¥ @clarkyhk | @GaiWaterhouse1 | @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 7, 2025 • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I'm with FIRST MISSION (9). He's a three-year-old gelding with upside who did it well winning first-up on a heavy track. He's got a lovely on-pace racing style and is up to the rise in class. FLYING EMBERS (5) was a heavy track winner over this trip last start who has nice credentials. HELLFIRE EXPRESS (1) appears big odds for a horse that will like the conditions and he should be peaking third-up now. DANISH PRINCE (10) is a tough competitor who can't be ruled out at odds. Thomas: TRAFALGAR SQUARE (12) was backed into favouritism at Gosford and had her chance when a close third in similar grade. She's had three runs back from a spell, will be at peak fitness, gets in light after the claim and is good each way value. FLYING EMBERS (5) handles heavy tracks, won well at Kembla last start, and is an improving filly. HELLFIRE EXPRESS (1) has been improved by two runs from a spell and no knock on FIRST MISSION (9) who comes off a dominant first-up Canterbury win. Mission success! ðŸ'� First Mission gives @KPMcEvoy a Canterbury double! @RARacing_ | @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 30, 2025 • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: A couple of good looking Highway types here in SHROPSHIRE LAD (4) and SO YOU PENCE (2). They are both promising young horses who can go through the classes. Slight leaning to Shropshire Lad with the back-up on a heavy track and he has soft track experience as well. Other than those two, I thought PLENITUDE (8) had nothing go right when put out of the race at Gosford last start when well tried at odds. ACHESON (5) is two from two on heavy ground and he is third-up with a claim which appeals. Thomas: MY LAST HOORAY (1) has raced well in each of his three runs since resuming, particularly his fast finishing at Warwick Farm to finish a close in a good form race. He handles heavy tracks and is way over the odds. SO YOU PENCE (2) could not have been more impressive at Wagga Wagga last start, streaking away to win with ease. She's unknown on heavy tracks but if she handles the conditions she might be too good again. SHROPSHIRE LAD (4) has plenty of potential and can only improve off his impressive first-up Scone win. CHEMTRAIL (11) is another lightly-raced but promising sprinter coming off a very easy Goulburn win. So You Pence makes it look effortless winning the Country Magic at Wagga! ðŸ°' @AshMorgan6 — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 2, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I'm going with the Gosford lead-up form and DUVANA (4). He's proven on heavy tracks with a big maiden win last preparation and he should be in order now after a much improved run second-up. HURSTVILLE ZAGREB (5) has a similar profile and he could easily be unbeaten coming into this race after having excuses last stat. SHE'S A DEALER (3) is in very good hands and she commands plenty of attention here. SIGIRIYA ROCK (6) has had a good grounding and is set to put his best foot forward going up a little in trip now. Thomas: Good race with some promising young staying talent. SHE'S A DEALER (3) comes from New Zealand off two very dominant wins and is on the Queensland Oaks trail. She is obviously held in high regard and she looks a filly of considerable staying talent. SISU SPIRIT (9) handled a bottomless Wyong track to score with ease last start and he's on target to bring up a hat-trick of wins this campaign. HURSTVILLE ZAGREB (5) was first-up at Gosford and just missed but he's also showing staying potential and will be hard to beat. DUVANA (4) comes out of the same Gosford race where he was a close third and he does have wet track form. A winning debut for Hurstville Zagreb at Goulburn! @JohnOSheaRacing — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) February 11, 2025 • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I'm keen on AHURIRI (7) here, Ray. She's a young, strong stayer off a good second-up heavy track win. She has won up to 2800m so the step up from 1900m to 2400m poses her no problems at all. The unknown here is the Victorian WUDDZZ (10) who is a tough wet-tracker who appears to be in career-best form. ASGOOODASSOBERGETS (18) looked like a different horse bolting in last start and if you trust him to do that again, he will be hard to beat. GALILAEUS (6) keeps grinding away in his races and is down in grade here. Thomas: I've gone the same way with AHURIRI (7), Ronnie. There was a lot to like about the way she reeled in her rivals at Canterbury second-up in very heavy conditions, the bigger Randwick track suits and she will be even better for that run. The underrated PHILIPSBURG (5) is always over the odds, he's racing well and is very effective on wet tracks. GALILAEUS (6) is a strong staying type but he is unproven on heavy tracks. ST VINCENTS GARDENS (16) is a lightly-raced stayer, down in the weights, handles wet track, and is at each way odds. Ah, hooray for Ahuriri! She wins the TAB Handicap second up at Canterbury with @nashhot in the saddle for @cwallerracing 🙌 @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 30, 2025 • Ponsonby's giant-killer as Group goal in mind â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I'm trusting the wet track lead-up form from Gosford with WINNING PROPOSAL (10). She was slow out when first-up behind Lulumon for the new stable, had legitimate excuses, and should come on from that. MISS JENNIFER (13) comes out of the same race where she had no luck at all. She was terrific at big odds there and she does have wet track form. STORM THE RAMPARTS (12) gets his blinkers back on and he presents well second-up. SOUTH OF INDIA (2) is a sharp type resuming, he has very good soft track form, he's a specialist at this trip and he's won two trials. Thomas: WINNING PROPOSAL (10) indicated a return to winning form is imminent when she closed off strongly for third at Gosford, beaten less than a length. She has shown considerable potential at various times during her career and is very effective on wet ground. GRAND LARCENY (4) is an emerging sprinter with three successive wins including his first-up effort at Caulfield. All his form is on top of the ground which is the only downside. STORM THE RAMPARTS (12) finished second, just ahead of Winning Proposal, when resuming and he's also suited by the wet track conditions. MISS JENNIFER (13) was very competitive finishing just behind Storm The Ramparts and Winning Proposal last start and she rates among the main contenders. Lulumon finds the gap and wins at Gosford giving @AlyshaCollett her double! ✌ï¸� — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 10, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I like ZAPHOD (8), Ray. He was great first-up going down narrowly to Les Vampires who has since franked the form. MIRACLE SPIN (12) is over the odds. He backs up from Scone where the track might have dried out a little bit too much for him on the second day. Prior to that he was building nicely to another win. QUANTUM CAT (14) was only second-up the other day, he's much fitter and is crying out for the extra distance. JAMBEROO (9) just needs things to fall into place from the draw but he is so genuine I can't leave him out. Thomas: ZAPHOD (8) was first-up at 1800m and made Les Vampires work hard for the win at Randwick. Les Vampire then came out and won the Gosford Gold Cup next start. Zaphod is proven second-up and only needs to get through the very heavy track conditions to prove hard to beat. BEAR ON THE LOOSE (5) was a big drifter on track for the Wagga Cup and after leading for home he faded late to run fifth. He was second-up that day and will improve, particularly as all his winning form has come on soft-heavy tracks. QUANTUM CAT (14) has been scratched a couple of times since his narrow loss to Jamberoo at Hawkesbury but he looks well placed here at the weights. COLLECT YOUR CASH (6) is in great form and will be in this for a long way. I’m so great! 😀 Zaphod gets the win at Eagle Farm for @Leesracing and @mallyon_andrew! @BrisRacingClub — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) December 21, 2024 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: GREEN FLY (3) is a backmarker who needs a lot to go his way but if he gets that luck he will be charging over the top of this field on his preferred wet track. He will be very hard to beat. HOLLYWOOD HERO (12) did enough first-up and he usually improves with racing. COOL JAKEY (6) is so reliable but he is very short for a horse who is unproven at a mile but he is a very good wet-tracker. RAPT (13) 's run was better than it reads on paper last start as he was on the worst part of the track. Thomas: GREEN FLY (3) showed what he can do when resuming at Rosehill when he flew home to collar COOL JAKEY (6) near the line. Green Fly then got a long way back before finishing off his race strongly when fifth over the Randwick mile course. He likes his races spaced, the course and distance suits, and he's at his best on soft-heavy going. COOL JAKEY (6) is very genuine and will give his backers a great sight again. BOLD MAC (1) showed improvement last start and is a definite chance here, while LAVISH EMPIRE (4) excels on wet tracks. ðŸ'š Green Fly from nowhere nabs Cool Jakey right on the line to give @LaneDamian a Rosehill double! @FreedmanRacing | @OTIRacing | @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 1, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: Another Victorian, HIYAAM PROUD (7), will be hard to beat. He's off a handful of nice jump-outs and he's proven on the soft. The big danger is KING OF ROSEAU (5). He has no recent wins but I'm convinced he is going great this preparation and is looking for 1400m. THUNDERLIPS (4) has had a trial since his second-up win, all his form is on soft tracks and he's a proven weight-carrier. MARGIE'S BOY (11) has had no luck in two runs back and might be worth including at odds. Thomas: I've gone with CRUEL SUMMER (6). He's coming off successive heavy track wins at Canterbury and Kensington, he makes his own luck on speed and is value at double figure odds. SPIONE (18) will need luck just getting into the field but if he does then he will be hard to beat. He was unlucky not to have won at Randwick last start and is an emerging sprinter. KING OF ROSEAU (5) is bursting to win a race and I concede there is a lot to like about HIYAAM PROUD (7). I just came back to a fit, effective wet-tracker in Cruel Summer at the odds. Coasting! It's back-to-back wins for Cruel Summer under a big weight! 😎 @RachelK11 | @perry_racing1 | @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 14, 2025 • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: SHE'S UNUSUAL (10) has a distinct liking for heavy tracks and she caught the eye making up a heap of ground late first-up. She should be improved with that run. The danger is FLYING THINKER (7) who had seven weeks between runs last start and should lift off what was an acceptable effort. DRIFT NET (3) got all the favours winning second-up and she will gain confidence from that win. The map looks kind to her again. MISS KIM KAR (13) is an improving three-year-old who has been eating up the ground in her two runs back and the extra distance suits her. Thomas: SHE'S UNUSUAL (10) flew home to just miss behind Thunderlips when resuming at Kensington. The bigger Randwick track suits She's Unusual, as does the heavy track conditions. She's ready to win. MISS KIM KAR (13) is going really well and there's a lot to like about her chances here. DRIFT NET (3) and HELLBENT ON YOU (5) are both in winning form and they have proven heavy track form.
News.com.au
16-05-2025
- Sport
- News.com.au
Ray and Duff's race-by-race tips, analysis for Scone on Saturday: $8.50 value bet
Racenet and The Daily Telegraph's Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central's Ron Dufficy debate the key chances for the 10-race Scone stand-alone meeting on Saturday. • PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet's team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW! â– â– â– â– â– DUFF'S BEST BET Race 3 No.2 AKAYSHA DUFF'S BEST VALUE Race 5 No.16 PURE ALPHA • Two-day Scone feast on the menu for Snowden â– â– â– â– â– Ron Dufficy: JUMEIRAH BEACH (5) found trouble and still won last start, leaving those behind him with no excuses. He's up in distance but that should be OK and has to be hard to beat again. GENERAL SOHO (6) is a tough horse who was strong putting another win on the board last start. He has won three times on this track so he could run a race at odds. NORTHERN EYES (1) is going well without winning. He fought hard after doing a bit of work last start and only has to run out the distance to be very competitive again. PERFECT JUSTICE (12) doesn't want too much rain but he gets in very light with different form. Ray Thomas: It's hard to tip against JUMEIRAH BEACH (5) who beat many of his Scone rivals at Hawkesbury after having an interrupted run. He's never been in better form and handles rain-affected going. LET'S FLY (11) won at Kembla than tried hard when fifth to Jumeirah Beach last start. She just doesn't want it too wet. NORTHERN EYES (1) is close to a win but the 1700m will test him. PRINCE OF SORTS (4) makes his own luck on speed but is a slight query at this distance. • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I'm sticking with ROUGE MOULIN (4) here. He ran on nicely at Randwick last start and this looks a nice race to try him at a mile. He does no work from his inside draw. The danger could be DUE CALZINI (10). This three-year-old has been a work in progress for a while, he's had a nice grounding for this, and the timing looks right but needs luck from the draw. FIORSUM FRED (5) is a big query. He is resuming at a mile without a barrier trial but has the most depth to his form, is trained on the track and sets up well. PHAROAHZANO (12) is a tough horse with a lightweight, gets in well with the claim and rarely runs a bad race. Thomas: ROUGE MOULIN (4) did work home well at Randwick and gives the impression he would be suited at 1600m. The drier the better for him. TAINUI (1) led throughout to win well at Tamworth over 2100m. He has to come back in trip here but hasn't missed a top two finish in six starts and will be in this for a long way again. DUE CALZINI (10) hit the line hard to just miss in the Guineas at Wagga last start and his best form has been on soft tracks. WIN THE DAY (9) was good in a Highway two starts back and is better suited here than she was at the Warwick Farm midweeks last start. â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I'm pretty keen on AKAYSHA (2). She defeated the highly-rated Beadman on debut then was good in defeat behind the promising Grand Eagle last start. She just needs luck from her wide draw and she is the one they all have to beat. STARDOM (6) has the same form-lines as Akaysha and franked that form by bolting in at Wagga Wagga last start. MISS FREELOVE (3) maps beautifully from the soft draw and did it well winning at Canterbury last start. WOLLZEILE (7) has been unextended in two trials and should be closely monitored, resuming off a big win. Thomas: I've also landed on AKAYSHA (2). She broke 56s for the 1000m at Kembla beating the brilliant Beadman on debut and that colt has since won successive races including at stakes level. Akaysha then went to Randwick and it took the talented Grand Eagle to beat her. She goes on top despite her wide barrier. MISS FREELOVE (3) can give trainer Peter Snowden the feature race quinella. She was brilliant at her second start winning by a comfortable margin at Canterbury on a heavy track. ZUMBO (4) maintained her unbeaten record with a strong win in the Miss Finland on very heavy going last start. SYLPH (15) ran on well behind the talented Agarwood at Warwick Farm and is not out of this despite a horror barrier. â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: OH DIAMOND LIL (5) always promised to be a better mare with another preparation under her belt and looking at her two trial wins this appears so. I think this is a lovely race for her first-up. INVADER ZIM (6) had plenty to do when not suited first-up. Both his wins have been at his second run back and this race suits with more speed up front. GETAFIX (3) is better than what we have seen from his two runs back and surely back in grade he has to improve. BLAZING HARRY (1) is a nice horse who is well-graded but just a query if he's wound up for this under a big weight. Thomas: We've gone the same way again, Ronnie. I also like OH DIAMOND LIL (5). She's a talented mare who had a great preparation over summer and she has been flying in her two recent runaway barrier trial wins. She's the one to beat. INVADER ZIM (6) ran on well when a close fifth at Randwick when resuming and can only be improved. SPARKLING (2) tried hard first-up at Randwick and will be fitter. BLAZING HARRY (1) hasn't been let go in two recent trials but he does sprint well fresh. â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I like PURE ALPHA (16). He is back from Victoria, up in distance, all his best form is with the jar out of the track, and I feel he will be right in the finish. GOOD BANTER (14) did more than enough first-up to say she can run well here. MIRACLE SPIN (2) finished hard behind a subsequent winner last start and is set for a peak performance at this grade. QUANTUM CAT (5) 's two runs back have had merit, the bigger track suits but he's also drawn awkwardly and needs luck in transit. Thomas: QUANTUM CAT (5) loomed up to win at Hawkesbury but Jamberoo was too tough under pressure. Quantum Cat has had two runs from a spell and should be ready to peak now. This is his chance despite his wide barrier. GOOD BANTER (14) worked to the line well behind Know Thyself in a strong form race at Randwick. She's fitter, excels on wet tracks and will get the run of the race. MIRACLE SPIN (2) made good ground late behind subsequent Gosford Gold Cup winner Les Vampires at Randwick so that form reads well for this race. BACIO DEL MIST (13) is always over the odds but is a good wet-tracker if she gets conditions to suit. â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: Good race. TANGLEWOOD (3) came of age last preparation with a placing in The Kosciuszko. Although he is coming off a decent spell his two recent trials have been very sharp and I'm leaning his way. I think DOLLAR MAGIC (7), trained on the track, is nice and fresh, she is very reliable and you know she will give her usual tough, genuine performance. LEFT FIELD (15) 's only run on this track was last year when she was placed in the Denise's Joy Stakes. You would have to say that form would look very strong here in a benchmark 78. ZEALOUSLY (6) had excuses when wide without cover last start and has to get another chance. Thomas: As you pointed out Ronnie, ZEALOUSLY (6) didn't have much luck over 1000m at Randwick but still tried hard to finish third. She's been improved by two runs from a spell and although a beaten favourite both times, stay with her as she's ready to win. DOLLAR MAGIC (7) is always competitive in this grade and she does race well fresh. PASSEGGIATA (16) and MISS ICELANDIC (4) beat Zealously home at Randwick and both rate among the main chances. • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: The big raps are for SOFT LOVE (6), Ray. She's an untapped and unbeaten Victorian filly who caught the eye in a recent Sydney trial. This looks a real target race for her and she has come up with a beautiful draw. THAMES (12) has to go in as she has the form around Soft Love two starts back at Caulfield then was unlucky last start. She's also trialled in Sydney recently but is not as well drawn. SHOHISHA (2) has her share of weight but is trialling well and has proven class on her side. OVERFULL (7) is trialling well in Queensland and could surprise at big odds. Thomas: SHOHISHA (2) is resuming off one easy trial but she's a promising filly who races well fresh and handles soft tracks. She was spelled after a competitive fifth to Lady Shenandoah and Lady Of Camelot in the Light Fingers Stakes back in February and that form reads very well for this race. SOFT LOVE (6) will be hard to beat for all the reasons you mentioned. GERRINGONG (8) showed considerable promise during her debut preparation last summer and her trials have been good. SUNRISE (4) has been a brilliant winner of both starts this campaign but has to overcome the extreme outside barrier. â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I'm having a throw at the stumps with CABALLUS (11). He had his issues last preparation and has had throat surgery since. He has moved nicely under a hold in two trials and his best form wins this race. COMPELLING TRUTH (3) is up and running, he's very fit and has a good horse's record now. OSTRAKA (1) has been crying out to get some cover early in a race and gets his chance here back in distance in a fast-run race. Don't rule him out. PISANELLO (6) is right at his peak off a win and sure to be rushing home late. Thomas: COMPELLING TRUTH (3) did a great job to win the Wagga Wagga Town Plate and is probably better suited coming back slightly in trip. He's drawn wide but has good tactical speed and will be in this contest for a long way. PISANELLO (6) was back to his best at Canterbury last start and it is worth noting he scored a monstrous win on this track last year. Watch betting moves for CABALLUS (11) who is a big tip for this race. His trials have been very good and he's set to sprint well fresh. OSTRAKA (1) has had his chances but this race sets up well for him and he can improve. • 'I gave it up, I didn't want to ride again': Morgan's comeback for the ages â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I like WRITTEN IN CODE (9). She should be forgiven for her last start defeat when making her run on the wrong part of the track. Prior to that she looked very progressive so I want to stay with her given she has a lightweight. ZEITUNG (15) is the danger. She is knocking on the door and won't know herself with the limit weight. COUNTYOURBLESSINGS (12) has been sharpened with a trial win since not having much luck first-up. VIBRANT SUN (1) is a big query. She's a Group 1 Oaks winner and looking at her trials she is more than capable of sprinting well fresh. Thomas: ZEITUNG (15) won a Group 3 race at Flemington during the Cup Carnival last year and has been working her way back to form this autumn. She ran on well for third in the Hawkesbury Guineas which sets her up for this race. IMPOSANT (14) has been kept fresh since her very good third in the Provincial Midway Championship Final and she is over the odds despite her wide draw. WRITTEN IN CODE (9) is going to get all the favours from her good draw. WATCH MY GIRL (10) has good first-up form and her chances soar if the track rating is near the good range. • â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I'm with PHEARSON (8). I thought he did enough last start, is on the back-up here and gets to 1300m which he relishes. With a nice run from the good draw he will be around the mark. GALLANT STAR (16) finds a faster race this week and should get cover from his draw which will help him no end. WHINCHAT (11) has won his two trials well, his winning strike-rate and fresh form speaks for itself. CHRYSAOR (7) did win first-up at Flemington last preparation so I suggest he would have had enough work to sprint well fresh again. Thomas: GALLANT STAR (16) had his chance at Hawkesbury but tried hard when narrowly beaten. He should be at peak fitness after three runs from a spell, will get every chance from his favourable draw, and he's never carried such a light weight in his 17-start career. WHINCHAT (11) has the early speed to negate his wide draw and he will give these something to chase. His two recent trial wins have been brilliant. BRUDENELL (2) is on the back-up after being nosed out in the Takeover Target Stakes last week and will be in the mix again. CHRYSAOR (7) can sprint well fresh.
News.com.au
09-05-2025
- Sport
- News.com.au
Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy's race-by-race analysis and tips for Gosford on Saturday
The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy debate all the chances across 10 races at the Gosford stand-alone meeting on Saturday. • PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet's team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. DUFF'S SUGGESTED BETS BEST BET R2 No.1: SEQUISTA VALUE BET R6 No.10: LULUMON â– â– â– â– â– Ron Dufficy: I like the well-bred filly DUCK EGG BLUE (7). She was competitive at stakes level last start and that has to be good form for this race. THE GREAT HOUDINI (1) was fantastic winning first-up at the Kensington midweeks, and he is trained on the track which is always an advantage. MONTE KATE (3) was trapped wide last start and you have to forgive her unplaced run. She only needs luck from her draw to be in the finish here. DON'T DOUBT MERLIN (5) has had two very nice trials and is unbeaten fresh. He is a big yard and market watch. Ray Thomas: I'm going to stay with OAKFIELD BADGER (2). He's a consistent sprinter who ran on well without threatening the impressive Sunrise at Randwick last start. He gets out to 1200m here and that should suit. He's double-figure odds and will give his backers a great sight. DUCK EGG BLUE (7) does look hard to beat for all the reasons you have mentioned. THE GREAT HOUDINI (1) won with ease when resuming at Kensington and if he runs up to that effort he will be hard to beat again. DON'T DOUBT MERLIN (5) flies fresh and is coming off some very good recent trial efforts. Sunrise goes whooshka! Way too good in Race 2 at Randwick. @MitchBeerRacing @RachelK11 — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 26, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I'm very keen on SEQUISTA (1). I concede she is still a maiden and has to carry a bit of weight for a filly here but she has form around the right horses and only has to handle a soft track to be the one to beat. CHICAMA (7) was good after a wide run behind a subsequent winner last start and he has won a trial since. HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT (6) captured the attention charging into second spot on debut and looks to have a future. GREEN SPACES (4) showed good speed winning first-up in Victoria and that form should hold up here. Thomas: SEQUISTA (1) ran a blinder on debut to finish a close third to top filly Within The Law in the Inglis Nursery and at her only run since she led for home before finishing fourth to the outstanding Tempted in the Percy Sykes Stakes. Sequista had to do a lot of work first-up and it wasn't surprising she faded late. But form does read very well for this race, she just needs a touch of luck finding a position from her awkward draw and she will be hard to beat. HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT (6) ran on well for second on debut at Canterbury and expect him to again be finding the line. GREEN SPACES (4) resumed with an all-the-way win at Geelong, he will be fitter, is in the right stable and is value odds. CHICAMA (7) can only improve on his game first-up effort. â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: JOISELLE (4) looks hard to beat here. She has the Highway form on the board, she's proven at 1200m and has to be the go-to horse with a lovely draw and claim. SUPER NORWEST (9) resumes without a trial and has a horror draw but she probably has the best Highway form if right so have to take her on trust. JOLLY GOOD FELLOW (1) is only a three-year-old in a new stable but has his confidence up after a couple of country wins and might have more to offer. ATMOSPHERIC ROCK (17) still has to sneak into this field and I know he has a big weight but he's a talented horse who was very good winning first-up at this level last preparation. Thomas: I'm also with JOISELLE (4). She tried hard when third in a Randwick Highway and gets the perfect draw at Gosford. This is her chance. JOLLY GOOD FELLOW (1) has scored successive wins by comfortable margins at Orange and Bathurst and he has the early speed to negate his barrier. RITZSUN (8) has been the beaten favourite in three successive starts but he hasn't been far away. Drawn well and should be in the mix. BAKHITA (14) is down in the weights, well drawn and is a competitive chance at good odds. â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: ENGINE ROOM (4) looks a nice horse in the making off two good wins. It's a bold plan going straight to a mile here but his pedigree suggests it should be OK. I'm going to bank on his upside. DUVANA (8) needed the run when ridden quietly from the draw first-up and will go much better from the draw. PURE ALPHA (3) returns to Sydney after three runs from Victoria on good tracks and it would appear his best form is with the jar out of the tracks. YANKEE ONE (1) got all the favours winning last start but there is no reason she won't get a similar run here and she just keeps improving. Thomas: ENGINE ROOM (4) comes off exciting wins at Warwick Farm and Kensington to start his preparation. This is his biggest test but he's winning with authority and is very strong at the end of his races. MIZELLA (12) was charging home late when second over 1400m at Newcastle. Emerging filly who is going to appreciate 1600m and will be hitting the line hard. YANKEE ONE (1) has won three of her last four starts and she will get a soft run from her inside draw. ENTER THE DRAGON (2) is also racing in great form and will make his own luck racing on speed. Engine Room motors home with ease to make it back-to-back wins! ðŸ'¨ @heysy | @ZacLloydx | @aus_turf_club — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 25, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: I'm interested in the Victorian MR BUSTER (14). He's a lightly-raced Ciaron Maher-trained horse who was heavily backed last start and this is a nice race for him. I expect he will be here to race very well. SUN GOD (3) gets blinkers on. He loomed up to win last start but just didn't quite finish his race off so coming back slightly in distance suits him. SO DAZZLING (2) hasn't won in a long while but caught the eye at big odds when resuming. She drops in class here and has good second-up statistics. AWESOME WONDER (7) is a strong staying mare who was pretty good first-up and is a touch over the odds. Thomas: SUN GOD (3), the former English stayer, loomed up to win but couldn't get past eventual winner Campaldino, finishing third in a tight finish at Kensington. He is back to 2100m and gets the blinkers on. It's also worth noting both his career wins have come when fourth-up from a spell like he is here. CORMAC T (9) was only beaten a length into third when resuming and he does go well second-up from a spell. I also thought AWESOME WONDER (7) did more than enough when resuming to put herself right into contention here. I'm wary of MR BUSTER (14) and agree he is definitely one to watch. â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: There's good value with LULUMON (10) although this is a touch short of her best distance. Her two trials leading into her return to racing have been great, she is very genuine and you know what you are going to get from her and that's a really good run for your money. I like the fact she will just sit off the speed and have last look at them. RANTAN (12) is an improver who has also trialled well and gets in with a featherweight. She should be competitive. STORM THE RAMPARTS (9) is also trialling up under a hold, looking the part and the stable is in great form. WINNING PROPOSAL (7) has her first run for the new stable and has to be respected as she has shown glimpses of nice talent previously. Thomas: WINNING PROPOSAL (7) is a lightly-raced filly who has been competitive against some of the best of her agree group. She hasn't managed to place in five starts this season but her two barrier trial efforts in recent weeks suggests she has returned in very good form. Winning Proposal seems trained up for a winning return. SHALL BE (5) and POWER OF THE BRAVE (6) ran the quinella at Wyong last start and both are right into this race. CASSIEL (13) led throughout and won well at Canterbury first-up in smart time. He will be fitter and is drawn to get the right run. Lulumon moved up to the favourite Drift Net and went on by under @clarkyhk, who's landed a Rosehill double. Well done to trainer @jason1coyle ðŸ'� — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) December 7, 2024 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: NEW ENDEAVOUR (2) is going really well without winning. He maps to get the right run and I'm happy to give him another chance considering the depth of his form. HEZASHOCKA (3) is working up to a peak performance and just needs the track to stay on the softer side to be hard to hold out. I liked the way LES VAMPIRES (9) rallied late to the line last start when he went up in distance last start. He is up in trip again but could well be up to the task. NAVAL COLLEGE (4) did enough first-up, usually lifts at his second run back and just needs things to fall into place early so he can get some cover. Thomas: I've got MEDATSU (12) on top each-way but his chances hinge on the track improving. He's better on top of the ground and is slowly working his way back into form as his efforts to finish just behind the placegetters in the Albury Cup and Wagga Wagga Gold Cup indicate. He's on the limit weight, might be able to settle closer from the good draw and is an each way chance provided the track is not soft-heavy. NEW ENDEAVOUR (2) is definitely the one to beat. He is bursting to win a race, gets his chance from the good draw and is a deserved favourite. The wetter the better for defending champ HEZASHOCKA (3). LES VAMPIRES (9) has to stay 2100m but he's very fit and his tactical speed is suited around this tight, turning track. â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: A throw at the stumps where with WOOTTON VERNI (4). There was a massive plunge on him first-up in Australia and I know he was disappointing but the market doesn't usually lie so I am very guarded about his chances. He could easily improve. LADY IN PINK (1) is a Victorian mare who adds interest after a Group 2 placing in Adelaide last start and she will be strong at a mile. KNOW THYSELF (10) gets a massive drop in weight here of 8kg after winning three straight. He is quite likeable although he is short enough. RAPT (13) is going really well, is crying out for the step up in distance and gets her chance at big odds. Thomas: KNOW THYSELF (10) has won three on the bounce including the Country Championships Final and then a fast-finishing effort over the Randwick 1600m course last start. This is a stronger race but he drops 8kg to the limit of 53kg and if the track stays in the soft-heavy range, he will be hard to beat. MARE OF MT BULLER (8) has been freshened since charging home to win the Epona Stakes. I'd prefer her over further but she has had six weeks between runs. I'm also keeping a close eye on WOOTTON VERNI (4). He could improve sharply on his unplaced Australian debut. DEPTH OF CHARACTER (2) was dominant in the Queensland Guineas last start and could make it three wins in succession. Know Thyself makes it three wins in a row! ðŸ'¥ @Aaronbullock90 @Paulmessara — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 26, 2025 â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: There are lots of options here. Although this is short of his best distance XIDAKI (7) might be the one. The stable keeps saying how well he has come up and now he has a run under his belt, if he gets clear running from his inside draw, he will be very strong late. I'm happy to be with him at the price. ACCREDITED (15) is genuine, tough, gets in with a light weight and he maps well so he's ticking a lot of boxes. SHEZANALISTER (13) was outclassed last start but fresh is best for her. She's had a lovely trial between runs and is right in it. Best of the rest is another Melbourne raider, WARNIE (14). He's been gelded before this preparation and he's a very interesting horse who was great in his first Australian preparation. Thomas: ACCREDITED (15) was a sprint find over summer. He should have won first-up then reeled off three wins in a row before finishing unplaced in the Southern Cross Stakes. Accredited resumes after two good trials, he's drawn well, has a lightweight and will be hard to run down. PEREILLE (9) always sprints well fresh. He's shaped well in two trials and gets a favourable draw. INFANCY (8) charged home to win the Sapphire Stakes and she would prefer a bigger track, with any luck in running she will be hitting the line hard. OSTRAKA (1) had to do a lot of work last start and had excuses when unplaced as favourite at Randwick. He's worth another chance but has to overcome the wide draw. â– â– â– â– â– Dufficy: RAIKKONEN (10) looked very good winning a couple last campaign before starting favourite in a Group 3 race and standing in the barriers. He's had two nice trials leading into this race and I'm happy to go with his potential. KING OF ROSEAU (5) hasn't won in a while but he's come back well and I like the way he fought hard going to the line last start. He should be at the top of his game for this race. GUMDROPS (3) is having her first run for the new stable and is worth keeping a close eye on. CRAFTY EAGLE (6) is a proven fresh performer with three of his four career wins coming when first-up from a spell. Thomas: KING OF ROSEAU (5) has shaped promisingly in two runs from a spell and just missed behind Step Aside at Randwick last start. He's only won one race but has performed well at a much higher level earlier in his career. Drawn awkwardly but going well enough to be in the finish. MEMORIA (4) doesn't know how to run a bad race and she will give these something to chase. I can understand why you are keen on RAIKKONEN (10), he has to be among the main chances. CRAFTY EAGLE (6) is resuming, he can be lethal fresh and is way over the odds.
Herald Sun
02-05-2025
- Sport
- Herald Sun
Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy's race-by-race analysis and tips for Hawkesbury on Saturday
Ron Dufficy says the All Aged Stakes form is hard to ignore for his value tip at Hawkesbury. Check out Duff and Ray Thomas' race-by-race preview. Don't miss out on the headlines from Horse Racing. Followed categories will be added to My News. The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central's form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances in all 10 races at the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting on Saturday. • PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet's team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW! ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ SUGGESTED BET DUFF'S BEST VALUE RACE 8 No. 4: OSIPENKO ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ RACE 1: MIDWAY HCP (1500m) Ron Dufficy: I'm going with JUMEIRAH BEACH (10) in the first. He had a confidence-boosting midweek win in Brisbane on the soft track last start. His previous two Midway runs were solid and I think he's got nice credentials at double-figure odds. VINTAGE CHOICE (3) might not have won in a long, long time but I feel he is in career-best form and he was excellent in the Provincial-Midway Championships Final. He does have gate speed, too. PRINCE OF SORTS (4) is an underrated horse. He got back further than expected last start and did more than enough. He is only a three-year-old and his previous win was good. HERB (12) is hard to catch but he had a nice lead-up run when he was unlucky on this track and this looks to be a target race. Ray Thomas: A tough opener. I'm going a little wide with MISS HADES (5) at generous odds. The likelihood of a heavy track does concern me but I thought her first-up run when a close sixth at Warwick Farm was a lot better than it reads on paper as she had no galloping room in the straight. Genuine mare who gets the benefit of the claim, too. NORTHERN EYES (2) was working his way back into form then also was devoid of luck at Randwick last start. Give him another chance. STARBOARD (11) never runs a bad race and VINTAGE CHOICE (3) is close to a win. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1500m) Dufficy: This race is nearly impossible. CANADIAN RULER (1) has a bit of weight but gets the claim and sets up well at his fourth run in and after a win. He is going well for the new stable and has a lovely racing style. MIDNIGHT AFFAIR (11) had a more than acceptable lead-up in a stronger race than this when she finished off hard. STRAIGHT FIRE (8) did enough first-up to suggest he has come back stronger. CALL ME TERRY (10) is busting to win another race and back in trip with the big weight was against him last start. He is in the mix. Thomas: CANADIAN RULER (1) is racing consistently and brings winning form to Hawkesbury after scoring comfortably at Canberra last start. He's got to carry topweight in the wet conditions but he should be very competitive again. Plenty of dangers including KOTAISHI (6), an improving sprinter with soft track form and STRAIGHT FIRE (8) who was good first-up. CALL ME TERRY (10) also stays under notice as he is very fit, gets in well at the weights, and handles wet tracks. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ RACE 3: ST JOHNS PARK BOWLING CLUB CLARENDON STAKES (1400m) Dufficy: I'm pretty keen on AERODROME (1). He created a big impression on debut, he looks a likely type for the future and has to be hard to beat. If he comes to Hawkesbury, WENTWORTH FALLS (7) should run well. He was very good charging late at Kembla when dragged back from a wide draw so he probably has the right grounding for this race. DAMIEN (2) landed some good bets winning easily first-up on the speed. The time was only steady but he looks an improver. ONE STEP CLOSER (10) looks a nice middle-distance type for the future. He did start favourite in that Kembla lead-up and he has more to offer. Thomas: AERODROME (1) was impressive on debut, scoring with authority. He looks a talented two-year-old and although there is a query about him on the wet track, there is no evidence to suggest he won't handle it, either. I'm happy to be with Aerodrome from WENTWORTH FALLS (7) who is the big improver. I've got the same top three with DAMIEN (2) as next best but I'm wary of SERPICO (6) who although well beaten when third to Aerodrome, should run a strong 1400m. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ RACE 4: CLARENDON TAVERN BM78 HCP (1100m) Dufficy: I want to give WORLD ALLIANCE (4) another chance here. He has been back to the trials since an inconclusive run at Kembla Grange. His previous form was great for a race like this and I have to give him another chance. EPIC PROPORTIONS (8) is one at big odds who should be closely monitored. He has been hard held in two trials and does have great fresh form. IRON MAN (3) was good first-up and this is a lovely race for him at home back to 1100m. He deserves another win. RANVEER (6) is another of these interesting Matt Laurie-trained runners who has had a couple of nice jumpouts in Victoria and has good fresh form. Thomas:IRON MAN (3) was held up for a run for most of the final 400m but still ran a close fifth when resuming at Randwick. Consistent sprinter, strips fitter here, handles wet tracks and has won second-up from a spell. SPANISH FOX (1) reeled off five successive wins before his spell last spring and resumes here at the track where his winning streak started. He's unknown on a heavy track but he's trialled well and should go close. WORLD ALLIANCE (4) rates among the main chances for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. ONE DESTINY (7) scored a tough win at Warwick Farm last start and he is a superior wet-tracker. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ RACE 5: BLAKE MARINE BM78 HCP (1800m) Dufficy: I quite like QUANTUM CAT (4), Ray. He got chopped out when building momentum last start when resuming and wasn't knocked about. I'm not sure about him in the wet but apart from that he is very likeable. This does look a lovely set-up for JAMBEROO (2) second-up from a spell. He ticks lots of bases liking the wet and his adaptability of going forward in a race that lacks speed. BLACK RUN (5) showed some encouraging signs racing well on debut in Australia and should lift off that run. ARISTONOUS (10) comes out of the same Warwick Farm race as many of his rivals and he worked home well that day. Thomas: I've also found QUANTUM CAT (4). He's still trying to get out from his Warwick Farm comeback run and although he is going straight to 1800m, this is his preferred distance range. PHILIPSBURG (3) has won successive Brisbane races, has never been in better form and handles wet tracks. JAMBEROO (2) and AWESOME WONDER (6) ran second and sixth when resuming in the same Warwick Farm race Quantum Cat contested and both will be improved. — SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 16, 2025 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ RACE 6: HAWKESBURY GUINEAS (1400m) Dufficy: I've always been a fan of JUST PARTY (4). He has been gelded before this preparation, I was very taken by his most recent trial. He is a better horse than his form reads and only has to handle the soft track to run very well. MEDIA WORLD (9) is another colt I have always liked and good to see him start off his preparation with a win. MODELLA (14) had excuses when wide the other day and doing a few things wrong but she is a real knockout chance. Going forward I think she has plenty to offer. CANDLEWICK (13) is well-liked in the market and although she didn't beat a strong lot at Warwick Farm she did it well and I'm sure the stable has an opinion of her. Thomas:MEDIA WORLD (9) showed plenty of determination to endure a tough run and still beat older horses when resuming at Warwick Farm. Promising colt who won at the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting last year and will go close again. MODELLA (14) was never on the track at Randwick and still ran bravely. Underrated filly who will need luck from her wide draw but is capable of running a very competitive race. PISCES (1) has been improved by two runs from a spell and he does have wet track form. SNITZANOVA (2) is resuming but she's a talented filly who won the Sandown Guineas on a heavy track last spring and must be considered. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ RACE 7: HAWKESBURY CROWN (1300m) Dufficy: I know LADY LAGUNA (2) had no excuses last start but she is third-up now and I love where she will settle in a race where there is no speed. This is her best distance. While there is no speed that gives BELCLARE (1) a very good chance. She was good first-up in the All Aged Stakes and the wide draw won't be an issue given the speed she has got. Last year's winner COCO JAMBOO (7) sets up well here after two encouraging runs. TASHI (10) is going well without winning, has an inner draw and should be around the mark again. Thomas: LADY LAGUNA (2) is a top class mare fitter for recent racing. She's very effective on soft and heavy tracks, and she should get this race run to suit. TASHI (10) finished alongside Lady Laguna last start, she's drawn to get a soft run, handles all track conditions and is a definite each way chance. CITY OF LIGHTS (12) was very good when resuming and she's rates highly in a very open race. BELCLARE (1) gets an uncontested lead, ran competitively in the All Aged Stakes, and back against mares she will take running down. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ RACE 8: HAWKESBURY GOLD CUP (1600m) Dufficy: I'm going with OSIPENKO (4). I thought he was very strong late in the All Aged Stakes and that has to be good form for this. The wet is OK and he should improve again. I think he may have got his confidence back after winning at the end of his last preparation. PUNCH LANE (5) is an obvious choice as he did it so well at both ends last week. Can he do it three weeks in a row at a mile – that's the gamble. But he looks to be flying and probably the pattern is vital for him and if the on-pacers are getting a fair go he will be hard to beat. MIGHTY ULYSSES (3) is the other one. Three of his six wins have been second-up and he has to be included in all the multiples. GREEN FLY (15) has a lethal finish when things fall in place and he appears good odds. Thomas:TAVI TIME (9) had his share of weight first-up and had to make his run wide out but ran on strongly for a close second when resuming at Randwick. He's out to his optimum distance of 1600m, his second-up record is almost faultless, and he handles soft tracks. GREEN FLY (15) got too far back at Randwick last week but was finishing powerfully late. His first-up win at Rosehill was very impressive and he excels on soft and heavy tracks. He's a definite lightweight chance. PUNCH LANE (5) led throughout to win well at Randwick last week and is backing up for the third week in a row but he's in top form and enjoys wet tracks. MATCHA LATTE (12) is also racing in top form, he has good tactical speed and will give himself every chance. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ RACE 9: HAWKESBURY XXXX GOLD RUSH (1100m) Dufficy: Given the wet track conditions I want to be with IN FLIGHT (12). I feel she will grow a leg second-up on the soft track second-up, she loves the distance and fits in well. Her stablemate DRAGONSTONE (1) has the blinkers back on, he's a tough, competitive horse who handles all conditions. I just wish he had drawn a little better but back to 1100m suits him. BUBBA'S BAY (4) is trialling very well, looking really sharp, and she knows how to win as she has a great winning strike-rate. I'll be watching for any confidence in the market for her on track. FIRE STAR (9) was well fancied first-up and was OK but he's proven in the soft and can bounce back. Thomas:BUBBA'S BAY (4) struck career-best form last preparation with four wins from six starts before a spell including twice at stakes level. Smart mare who kept improving when last in work. She resumes in a very open sprint but she's trialling up a storm and enjoys wet tracks. IN FLIGHT (12) was beaten by the very talented Pisanello at Canterbury when resuming but that's good form for this race. It's worth noting all of In Flight's five career wins have been on soft or heavy tracks. FIRE STAR (9) was unplaced in the Pisanello race but deserves another chance and DRAGONSTONE (1) will be charging home. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ RACE 10: THE LAWN SHED BM88 HANDICAP (1400m) Dufficy:GALLANT STAR (7) didn't run to market expectations in the Country Championships Final but that form has been franked, he gets the claim, the race has enough speed up front and he finds a lovely stalking position. He will be hard to beat. MOBY DICK (10) ran through the line at his Sydney debut indicating 1400m will suit. EXCELLADUS (4) caught everyone's attention charging into dead ends late first-up. I'm not sure if this tight, turning track but he is sure to be running on hard again. The best of the rest is CHICA MOJITO (11) who is trialling really nicely and could surprise. Thomas: I'm also staying with GALLANT STAR (7), Ron. Perhaps he is better ridden more conservatively early in his races as he has demonstrated a brilliant finishing burst in some of his wins. It was impossible to miss MOBY DICK's (10) last start effort and with even luck in running, he will be hard to beat. COOL JAKEY (3) is in very good form and makes his own luck racing on speed. IMPOSANT (13) is a very fit, in-form mare, she handles wet tracks and will be in the finish. Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy's race-by-race analysis and tips for Hawkesbury on Saturday Horse Racing Exciting young filly Churchill's Choice could be the new favourite for the Group 1 Queensland Oaks if she 'aims up' against the boys in the Queensland Guineas at Eagle Farm. Horse Racing Form analysis Chris Vernuccio gives his top tips for Saturday and quaddie analysis for the meeting at Caulfield.
