Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy's race-by-race tips, analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday: $5.50 best bet

News.com.au

23-05-2025

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph's Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central's Ron Dufficy debate the key chances in all 10 races at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
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DUFF'S BEST BET
Race 8 No.3 GREEN FLY
DUFF'S NEXT BEST
Race 5 No.7 AHURIRI
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Ron Dufficy: SEQUISTA (3) suffered some lacerations when she played up in the float at Gosford but she's a very talented filly. The gamble is 42 days between runs and a very heavy track but I'm happy to stick with her. The obvious dangers are AGARWOOD (5) who did it well winning with authority on her debut and looks to have a future, while REGULATED AFFAIR (2) ran slower time on the same day as Agarwood but maps well from the draw, and 1200m should suit. FEDERAL RESERVE (8) comes out of a hot form race and will take great benefit from that experience.
Ray Thomas: AGARWOOD (5) impressed on debut, settling on pace then sprinting clear to win easily. The heavy track conditions are a query, as they are for all her rivals, but she handled the soft 6 track well at her only start. SEQUISTA (3) is a talented filly but she has had that break between runs as you pointed out and that race fitness edge Agarwood has might be the difference. REGULATED AFFAIR (2) shown promise in both starts including his strong last start win so he rates as the main danger to the two fillies. I AM ADONIS (9) is a well-bred colt in the right stable and is one to watch.
A very nice win to Agarwood at Warwick Farm! ðŸ'¥ @clarkyhk | @GaiWaterhouse1 | @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/FyBp2m8DAG
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 7, 2025
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Dufficy: I'm with FIRST MISSION (9). He's a three-year-old gelding with upside who did it well winning first-up on a heavy track. He's got a lovely on-pace racing style and is up to the rise in class. FLYING EMBERS (5) was a heavy track winner over this trip last start who has nice credentials. HELLFIRE EXPRESS (1) appears big odds for a horse that will like the conditions and he should be peaking third-up now. DANISH PRINCE (10) is a tough competitor who can't be ruled out at odds.
Thomas: TRAFALGAR SQUARE (12) was backed into favouritism at Gosford and had her chance when a close third in similar grade. She's had three runs back from a spell, will be at peak fitness, gets in light after the claim and is good each way value. FLYING EMBERS (5) handles heavy tracks, won well at Kembla last start, and is an improving filly. HELLFIRE EXPRESS (1) has been improved by two runs from a spell and no knock on FIRST MISSION (9) who comes off a dominant first-up Canterbury win.
Mission success! ðŸ'�
First Mission gives @KPMcEvoy a Canterbury double! @RARacing_ | @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/HF6awJcxC8
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 30, 2025
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Dufficy: A couple of good looking Highway types here in SHROPSHIRE LAD (4) and SO YOU PENCE (2). They are both promising young horses who can go through the classes. Slight leaning to Shropshire Lad with the back-up on a heavy track and he has soft track experience as well. Other than those two, I thought PLENITUDE (8) had nothing go right when put out of the race at Gosford last start when well tried at odds. ACHESON (5) is two from two on heavy ground and he is third-up with a claim which appeals.
Thomas: MY LAST HOORAY (1) has raced well in each of his three runs since resuming, particularly his fast finishing at Warwick Farm to finish a close in a good form race. He handles heavy tracks and is way over the odds. SO YOU PENCE (2) could not have been more impressive at Wagga Wagga last start, streaking away to win with ease. She's unknown on heavy tracks but if she handles the conditions she might be too good again. SHROPSHIRE LAD (4) has plenty of potential and can only improve off his impressive first-up Scone win. CHEMTRAIL (11) is another lightly-raced but promising sprinter coming off a very easy Goulburn win.
So You Pence makes it look effortless winning the Country Magic at Wagga! ðŸ°' @AshMorgan6 pic.twitter.com/Ef60zEwKNw
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 2, 2025
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Dufficy: I'm going with the Gosford lead-up form and DUVANA (4). He's proven on heavy tracks with a big maiden win last preparation and he should be in order now after a much improved run second-up. HURSTVILLE ZAGREB (5) has a similar profile and he could easily be unbeaten coming into this race after having excuses last stat. SHE'S A DEALER (3) is in very good hands and she commands plenty of attention here. SIGIRIYA ROCK (6) has had a good grounding and is set to put his best foot forward going up a little in trip now.
Thomas: Good race with some promising young staying talent. SHE'S A DEALER (3) comes from New Zealand off two very dominant wins and is on the Queensland Oaks trail. She is obviously held in high regard and she looks a filly of considerable staying talent. SISU SPIRIT (9) handled a bottomless Wyong track to score with ease last start and he's on target to bring up a hat-trick of wins this campaign. HURSTVILLE ZAGREB (5) was first-up at Gosford and just missed but he's also showing staying potential and will be hard to beat. DUVANA (4) comes out of the same Gosford race where he was a close third and he does have wet track form.
A winning debut for Hurstville Zagreb at Goulburn! @JohnOSheaRacing pic.twitter.com/hhvsliJKPh
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) February 11, 2025
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Dufficy: I'm keen on AHURIRI (7) here, Ray. She's a young, strong stayer off a good second-up heavy track win. She has won up to 2800m so the step up from 1900m to 2400m poses her no problems at all. The unknown here is the Victorian WUDDZZ (10) who is a tough wet-tracker who appears to be in career-best form. ASGOOODASSOBERGETS (18) looked like a different horse bolting in last start and if you trust him to do that again, he will be hard to beat. GALILAEUS (6) keeps grinding away in his races and is down in grade here.
Thomas: I've gone the same way with AHURIRI (7), Ronnie. There was a lot to like about the way she reeled in her rivals at Canterbury second-up in very heavy conditions, the bigger Randwick track suits and she will be even better for that run. The underrated PHILIPSBURG (5) is always over the odds, he's racing well and is very effective on wet tracks. GALILAEUS (6) is a strong staying type but he is unproven on heavy tracks. ST VINCENTS GARDENS (16) is a lightly-raced stayer, down in the weights, handles wet track, and is at each way odds.
Ah, hooray for Ahuriri! She wins the TAB Handicap second up at Canterbury with @nashhot in the saddle for @cwallerracing 🙌 @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/gEHeb93GPk
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 30, 2025
• Ponsonby's giant-killer as Group goal in mind
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Dufficy: I'm trusting the wet track lead-up form from Gosford with WINNING PROPOSAL (10). She was slow out when first-up behind Lulumon for the new stable, had legitimate excuses, and should come on from that. MISS JENNIFER (13) comes out of the same race where she had no luck at all. She was terrific at big odds there and she does have wet track form. STORM THE RAMPARTS (12) gets his blinkers back on and he presents well second-up. SOUTH OF INDIA (2) is a sharp type resuming, he has very good soft track form, he's a specialist at this trip and he's won two trials.
Thomas: WINNING PROPOSAL (10) indicated a return to winning form is imminent when she closed off strongly for third at Gosford, beaten less than a length. She has shown considerable potential at various times during her career and is very effective on wet ground. GRAND LARCENY (4) is an emerging sprinter with three successive wins including his first-up effort at Caulfield. All his form is on top of the ground which is the only downside. STORM THE RAMPARTS (12) finished second, just ahead of Winning Proposal, when resuming and he's also suited by the wet track conditions. MISS JENNIFER (13) was very competitive finishing just behind Storm The Ramparts and Winning Proposal last start and she rates among the main contenders.
Lulumon finds the gap and wins at Gosford giving @AlyshaCollett her double! ✌� pic.twitter.com/ssDz9MeQ0i
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 10, 2025
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Dufficy: I like ZAPHOD (8), Ray. He was great first-up going down narrowly to Les Vampires who has since franked the form. MIRACLE SPIN (12) is over the odds. He backs up from Scone where the track might have dried out a little bit too much for him on the second day. Prior to that he was building nicely to another win. QUANTUM CAT (14) was only second-up the other day, he's much fitter and is crying out for the extra distance. JAMBEROO (9) just needs things to fall into place from the draw but he is so genuine I can't leave him out.
Thomas: ZAPHOD (8) was first-up at 1800m and made Les Vampires work hard for the win at Randwick. Les Vampire then came out and won the Gosford Gold Cup next start. Zaphod is proven second-up and only needs to get through the very heavy track conditions to prove hard to beat. BEAR ON THE LOOSE (5) was a big drifter on track for the Wagga Cup and after leading for home he faded late to run fifth. He was second-up that day and will improve, particularly as all his winning form has come on soft-heavy tracks. QUANTUM CAT (14) has been scratched a couple of times since his narrow loss to Jamberoo at Hawkesbury but he looks well placed here at the weights. COLLECT YOUR CASH (6) is in great form and will be in this for a long way.
I’m so great! 😀 Zaphod gets the win at Eagle Farm for @Leesracing and @mallyon_andrew! @BrisRacingClub pic.twitter.com/VXoI5xv3yB
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) December 21, 2024
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Dufficy: GREEN FLY (3) is a backmarker who needs a lot to go his way but if he gets that luck he will be charging over the top of this field on his preferred wet track. He will be very hard to beat. HOLLYWOOD HERO (12) did enough first-up and he usually improves with racing. COOL JAKEY (6) is so reliable but he is very short for a horse who is unproven at a mile but he is a very good wet-tracker. RAPT (13) 's run was better than it reads on paper last start as he was on the worst part of the track.
Thomas: GREEN FLY (3) showed what he can do when resuming at Rosehill when he flew home to collar COOL JAKEY (6) near the line. Green Fly then got a long way back before finishing off his race strongly when fifth over the Randwick mile course. He likes his races spaced, the course and distance suits, and he's at his best on soft-heavy going. COOL JAKEY (6) is very genuine and will give his backers a great sight again. BOLD MAC (1) showed improvement last start and is a definite chance here, while LAVISH EMPIRE (4) excels on wet tracks.
ðŸ'š Green Fly from nowhere nabs Cool Jakey right on the line to give @LaneDamian a Rosehill double! @FreedmanRacing | @OTIRacing | @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/aOe9GpWSak
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 1, 2025
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Dufficy: Another Victorian, HIYAAM PROUD (7), will be hard to beat. He's off a handful of nice jump-outs and he's proven on the soft. The big danger is KING OF ROSEAU (5). He has no recent wins but I'm convinced he is going great this preparation and is looking for 1400m. THUNDERLIPS (4) has had a trial since his second-up win, all his form is on soft tracks and he's a proven weight-carrier. MARGIE'S BOY (11) has had no luck in two runs back and might be worth including at odds.
Thomas: I've gone with CRUEL SUMMER (6). He's coming off successive heavy track wins at Canterbury and Kensington, he makes his own luck on speed and is value at double figure odds. SPIONE (18) will need luck just getting into the field but if he does then he will be hard to beat. He was unlucky not to have won at Randwick last start and is an emerging sprinter. KING OF ROSEAU (5) is bursting to win a race and I concede there is a lot to like about HIYAAM PROUD (7). I just came back to a fit, effective wet-tracker in Cruel Summer at the odds.
Coasting! It's back-to-back wins for Cruel Summer under a big weight! 😎 @RachelK11 | @perry_racing1 | @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/dfOeETeFXp
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 14, 2025
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Dufficy: SHE'S UNUSUAL (10) has a distinct liking for heavy tracks and she caught the eye making up a heap of ground late first-up. She should be improved with that run. The danger is FLYING THINKER (7) who had seven weeks between runs last start and should lift off what was an acceptable effort. DRIFT NET (3) got all the favours winning second-up and she will gain confidence from that win. The map looks kind to her again. MISS KIM KAR (13) is an improving three-year-old who has been eating up the ground in her two runs back and the extra distance suits her.
Thomas: SHE'S UNUSUAL (10) flew home to just miss behind Thunderlips when resuming at Kensington. The bigger Randwick track suits She's Unusual, as does the heavy track conditions. She's ready to win. MISS KIM KAR (13) is going really well and there's a lot to like about her chances here. DRIFT NET (3) and HELLBENT ON YOU (5) are both in winning form and they have proven heavy track form.