Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy's Rosehill Saturday tips, analysis: $3 best bet

News.com.au

a day ago

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph's Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central's Ron Dufficy debate the chances in all 10 races – including the Listed Lord Mayor's Cup – at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
Ray and Duff also provide their selections for the three feature races at Eagle Farm on Saturday – the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup, the Group 1 Queensland Derby and Group 2 BRC Sires' Produce Stakes.
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DUFF'S BEST BET
Race 7 No.10 KERGUELEN
• Professional punter James Molony's race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday
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Ron Dufficy: I think NAMASTE (2) is worth something at odds here. Not much went right for him first-up at Doomben in Group 2 company and with the blinkers on, he might get a level of control up front and give a sight. HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT (1) and SARAPO (3) are both likely looking types. They were both very good at Gosford when they ran the quinella and the extra 100m should suit them. SWIFT LEGEND (5) is another good longshot who was great making up a lot of ground over 1000m on debut and he should enjoy getting out to this distance.
Ray Thomas: SARAPO (3), a son of English superhorse Frankel, was excellent on debut at Gosford, closing late for second to HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT (1). Sarapo went wide on the turn, copped a bump then once balanced finished his race off strongly. He will appreciate the bigger track at Rosehill and the extra 100m is ideal. No knock on Hidden Achievement who got the run of the race but executed well at Gosford. ZEBRA FINCH (6) hit the line well for third to Aerodrome at Hawkesbury a month ago and he's not out of this race. NAMASTE (2) will improve on his first-up effort and is also in the mix.
Hidden Achievement makes it look effortless at Gosford!
Adam Hyeronimus gets an early race-to-race double! ✌� @cwallerracing pic.twitter.com/fxJvCluCGq
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 10, 2025
• Shayne O'Cass's race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday
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Dufficy: BOYS NIGHT OUT (2) has a nice profile for this race. His past two Brisbane runs he has probably been unlucky, he maps well and the jar is out of the track so this looks ideal for him. WARRIOR FOR PEACE (10) created a big impression at Scone he charged home to win. This is harder but he does look to have plenty of ability. ROUGE MOULIN (4) gets a gear change and hasn't been far away at his past two Highway runs and the 3kg claim does help. NEW PHAROAH (9) was very strong at Scone but needs a touch of luck from that awkward draw.
Thomas: WARRIOR FOR PEACE (10) produced a scarcely believable effort to come from near last and win at Scone. He's a promising three-year-old and although dropping back slightly in trip, he's going to be hard to hold out again. MY LAST HOORAY (3) had no luck at Randwick last week but was still a winning chance at the 200m. He's on the quick back-up and will enjoy getting out to 1500m. BOYS NIGHT OUT (2) is going to get the run of the race and is ready to win. CANADIAN RULER (1) is in great form but will need luck from the wide barrier.
Warrior For Peace absolutely flies home on the outside to win at Scone! 🚀 @NockBraith | @cavanoughracing pic.twitter.com/HdmZY0usMW
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 16, 2025
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Dufficy: This is a competitive race. HARRY'S BAR (8) is a sharp mare resuming who should get the right run from her good draw (barrier three) and I'm happy to go her way. I AM BRAVE (14) is only a three-year-old filly having her second start, is coming out of a country maiden win but she really captured the attention at Scone and she does have the pedigree. DON'T DOUBT MERLIN (10) can sprint well fresh, he has looked good at the trials. LADY EXTREME (7) is very genuine, tries hard and should run another really good race fresh.
Thomas: I've gone with I AM BRAVE (14), Ronnie. She was heavily backed on debut and was very impressive, running time despite the soft track conditions at Scone. Drawn awkwardly so she will need luck to go her way but she does look a talented filly. LADY EXTREME (7) is resuming but is very genuine and will be hard to beat. I concede HARRY'S BAR (8) is going to be very competitive and OAKFIELD BADGER (3) is never far away in this grade.
'It's all over bar the shouting!'
Harry's Bar raced on the speed and proved far too good in Race 2 at Canterbury ðŸ�‡ðŸ'¥ @racing_nsw | @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/mg6X8PxHo6
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) August 28, 2024
• 'She's a nice filly': Freedmans' Brave call at Rosehill
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Dufficy: One of the tougher races of the day, Ray. MAORI CHIEF (6) is a well-bred three-year-old, he's found winning form at both starts this preparation, and should secure a cosy run here. INTERJECTION (1) only has to run up to what he did two starts back to prove hard to beat – if you want to trust him. KADALL (7) hasn't won in a while but comes out of a few solid form races for this. MICKEY'S MEDAL (3) has been around the mark his last start back and should like getting back to 1500m.
Thomas: I agree this is very open so I have gone a little wide with LIKE LUKEY (12). She's a consistent mare who ran a blinder first-up at Scone, running on from near last on the turn to finish second, only beaten a length. She bolted in second-up last preparation, is well drawn and is a great lightweight chance at double figure odds. FEAR NO EVIL (2) is having a very good debut preparation and should run well again. CALIFORNIA SUNRISE (13) is very genuine and working up to a win, while MAORI CHIEF (6) commands respect after his impressive wins on the Kensington track.
🙌 Maori Chief shows them how it's done at Randwick to make it two wins in a row! @cwallerracing | @nashhot | @gobloodstockaus | @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/USiPmCGrLd
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 14, 2025
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Dufficy: ELLIPSIS (13) has been freshened with a trial since beating Flying Embers last start and she has won two races since. It reads well for Ellipsis and this market has been strong on her all week which is a good sign. SUMMER FLAME (5) may have been big odds winning at Scone first-up but I don't think there was any fluke in that effort as she has a touch of quality about her. DON'T FORGET JACK (6) has always shown plenty of raw talent and had a confidence-boosting win first-up. CODETTA (4) has trialled well enough and is a close yard and market watch.
Thomas: I've also landed on ELLIPSIS (13). As you mentioned, her form has been franked and she's drawn to get the right run. SUMMER FLAME (5) comes off her game first-up win in the Denise's Joy Stakes at Scone and should could go right on with it here. LULUMON (1) was brilliant beating Storm The Ramparts at Gosford and the runner-up has since won. Lulumon also has a very good second-up record. CODETTA (4) is Riff Rocket's half-sister, she's got obvious potential and should sprint well fresh.
It's Ellipsis winning by a nose in a photo finish in the 5th at Canterbury! ðŸ'¸
Jason Collett rides his second winner for the day! ✌� @BBakerRacing pic.twitter.com/sDTn5KOlkj
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 21, 2025
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Dufficy: I'm leaning to FURIOUS (3). I'm convinced he is ready to win third-up and getting out to this distance, the only little concern is he has to carry a big weight. PURE ALPHA (13) overdid things up front last start but should get cover in this race which will help him to relax better. SCALEXTRICS (8) does no work from the inside draw and won't be far away again. ENTER THE DRAGON (4) is hard to know, he just keeps finding a way to win.
Thomas: This does look the right race for FURIOUS (3). He's had the two runs back and is ready to win after going under narrowly at Kensington last start. He should get the right run and this is his chance. ENTER THE DRAGON (4) has reeled off a hat-trick of wins, starting at longer odds each time, but deservedly is at the top of betting here and will be very hard to beat. NORTHERN EYES (5) and LITTLE COINTREAU (7) are racing well and are definite winning chances.
� Enter The Dragon just holds on and wins in a fiery finish at Gosford! @GaiWaterhouse1 pic.twitter.com/Iu6PeLhXIC
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 10, 2025
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Dufficy: KERGUELEN (10) is off a decent break of 28 weeks but he's been well held together in a few trials, he's always had a big wrap on him and I'm confident he's presented to win. UNSTOPABULL (9) hit the line nicely first-up and he did win at his second run back last preparation. BRAVE ONE (16) is a three-year-old with talent who gets in light and should improve after an acceptable first-up run. SMASHING TIME (13) is a very good longshot.
Thomas: I'm also with KERGUELEN (10). He's still very lightly-raced but hasn't missed a top two finish in five starts. As you pointed out, he has been held together in both his recent trials and goes to Rosehill fresh and ready. SPANISH FOX (2) put the writing on the wall with his third at Scone last start and he did win third-up last campaign. BRAVE ONE (16) is a good lightweight chance.
That was impressive! ðŸ'�
Kerguelen gets his second win at start three for @godolphin ðŸ'µ
Easy as you like for @zaclloydx pic.twitter.com/TZMveZCOfs
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 10, 2024
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Dufficy: Where to go here? I do think this is a nice race for TOURISTIC (8). He was set a big task taking off early in the Gosford Cup but he wasn't bad so I think that might sharpen him up and he finds himself in a winnable race. MAJOR BEEL (1) is ready to put his best foot forward third-up at 2000m now and he will give plenty of cheek on speed. PRIVATE LEGACY (9) found winning form at stakes lever over this trip in Adelaide last start and she presents well here. DON DIEGO DE VEGA (11) has some solid fresh form and should be closely monitored if there is any market confidence about him.
Thomas: PRIVATE LEGACY (9) comes off a very good win in the Centaurea Stakes at Morphettville and gets into this race on the 54kg limit. She's a talented mare with a strong finish. GLORY DAZE (5) is backing up after winning well at Randwick last week and is going to get the right run here. MAJOR BEEL (1) is fitter for recent racing and if he gets control up front, he will be tough to run down. I also have TOURISTIC (8) in my numbers.
Touristic follows up a strong performance a fortnight ago to win today. @SchofieldChad @SnowdenRacing1 pic.twitter.com/sHe3jf0QP2
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 1, 2023
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Dufficy: With the scratching of Gentleschi I will stay with CORMAC T (8), a last start Scone winner. He should be around the mark again as he gets a similar sort of run here. KIND WORDS (7) also comes out of the Scone race where she finished fast to run third. She is always a knockout chance but needs things to fall into place. FREIGHT TRAIN (12) might be the one with different form coming out of Victoria and could shape up here. SEAFALL (4) needs luck from the draw but 1800m is ideal for her now she is on her home track.
Thomas: KIND WORDS (7) finished fast to just miss when third to CORMAC T (8) at Scone. She's racing in peak form and gets her chance here. Cormac T comes off that tough win at Scone and will be very competitive again. SEAFALL (4) was impressive last start but the wide barrier is a leveller. GOOD PRIZE (2) has won four straight but has started at longer odds every time.
Cormac T wins by a whisker in a very tight finish at Scone! ðŸ'� @ANeashamRacing | @tomo_sherry pic.twitter.com/1beQnd7qco
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 17, 2025
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Dufficy: LEFT FIELD (9) needs luck as she gets back in the field but there seems to be plenty of speed here, 1200m suits her better and she does have a big finish on her. WEEPING WOMAN (10) is a lightly-raced mare who did a good job winning two of her four starts last preparation. She is trialling well enough to be very competitive here. SO YOU PENCE (17) is very interesting as she is a talented country mare who has been impressive and could well be up to the class rise. Best of the rest could be PAJANTI (7) who was great first-up having no luck and if she reproduces that effort she could win.
Thomas: Tough closer but I've gone with PAJANTI (7) each way. She stormed home to finish a close second when resuming, should be improved by that run, handles rain-affected tracks and has won second-up previously. SO YOU PENCE (17) is promising and would have been top pick but for her horror draw. LEFT FIELD (9) ran well at Scone and I can see why you have gone with her, Ronnie. WEEPING WOMAN (10) is resuming off a let-up but is a smart mare and will be in the finish.
That’s a double for @GRyanRacing /Alexiou and Tim Clark, as Pajanti wins at @WyongRaceClub! pic.twitter.com/Qflw9ZtIDN
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 20, 2024
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Dufficy: GALLO NERO (2) went back from a wide draw first-up and then he did more than enough running on for second in the wet. This sets him up well for the Sires and I would expect a more positive ride from the better draw. AERODROME (7) is a very nice horse with a month freshen off his Hawkesbury win. I can understand why he is very likeable. BESKAR (13) has drawn to advantage and should be somewhere in the finish. GRAFTERBURNERS (1) sat wide and did well last start and 1400m should be suitable.
Thomas: GALLO NERO (2) is a talented colt who closed fast at Doomben to just miss. He will be improved by the run and is the one to beat. AERODROME (7) has won both his starts, impressing with his powerful finishing sprint. GRAFTERBURNERS (1) has been crying out for 1400m and COOL ARCHIE (3) just keeps winning.
Another winner for @munceracing, with Cool Archie getting the nose down in the Spirit Of Boom Classic! pic.twitter.com/uk6xCdxwda
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 17, 2025
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Dufficy: There seems to be stable confidence about PRIVATE EYE (2). He has been unextended in three trials, we know he is a very good horse and he might be one at value now there is rain around. JOLIESTAR (10) has had six weeks and a soft trial between runs, fresh is good for her and her best just about wins this race. Hopefully, down the outside is OK as that is where she will be coming. GIGA KICK (1) did more than enough after getting a long way back and being shoved off the track in the Goodwood. He will improve with that run. KIMOCHI (11) can't be left out after a total forgive run last start and she has trialled well since.
Thomas: I've gone with KIMOCHI (11) at double figure odds. She's an underrated mare who will get the perfect run from her good gate and will be very competitive. JOLIESTAR (10) is good enough to overcome her wide draw. GIGA KICK (1) is an outstanding sprinter on his day and he improves the further he gets into a preparation. We have the same top four but in a different order as PRIVATE EYE (2) usually sprints well fresh and is a top class sprinter.
@GaryPortelli @CWilliamsJockey pic.twitter.com/B7ZMus0UTP
â€' Racing.com (@Racing) November 16, 2024
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Dufficy: A very tough Derby. BELLE DETELLE (17) is suited on the bigger track at Eagle Farm as she had to give an impossible start last time and hopefully you can run wide here. LAVALIER (6) did early work in Adelaide last start and his run was commendable. PARTY CRASHER (13) maps well on pace and has a turn of speed while CHASE YOUR DREAMS (18) is a good longshot.
Thomas: I've gone wide with EXISTENTIAL BOB (15). I know he's a $41 chance but he's learned how to win, he can stay, and will make his own luck racing on speed. At the odds, he's worth the gamble. KING OF THUNDER (4) is a promising young stayer and LAVALIER (6) will run the trip right out. BELLE DETELLE (17) has drawn off the track but stays under notice.