Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions
The Cleveland Guardians (2-3) and the San Diego Padres (6-0) wrap up a 3-game interleague series Wednesday at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 2-0; Padres won 2-1 in 2024
The Padres have outscored the Guardians 14-2 in the first 2 meetings of this series. San Diego won 7-2 on Monday as slight favorites (-130) as the Over (7.5) cashed, while it won 7-0 Tuesday as heavy favorites (-175) as the Under (7.5) hung on. The Padres have 3 shutout wins in the past 4 outings.
In the 7-0 victory, OF Fernando Tatis drove in a pair of runs, while scoring a run and drawing 2 walks. OF Jackson Merrill cracked a solo HR, while also drawing a walk with 2 runs scored.
On Tuesday, Guardians OF Steven Kwan and 2B Gabriel Arias were the only 2 players to collect a hit, with each player reaching with singles. 3B Jose Ramirez was hitless in 3 at-bats, and he also committed his first error of the season.
The weather forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies and temperatures around 60. However, the winds will be blowing steadily from 13-16 MPH from left field to right field, with gusts up to 20 MPH.
Guardians at Padres projected starters
RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Dylan Cease
Lively (0-0, 5.40 ERA) makes his second start of 2025. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 5 IP.
Last start: ND, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 3 K in 7-4 road win in 10 innings vs. Royals Thursday
2024 road splits: 5-7, 3.93 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 12 HR, 24 BB, 63 K, 1.22 WHIP in 15 starts
2024/career vs. Padres: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 2-1 home loss July 21, 2024
Cease (0-0, 6.23 ERA) makes his second start of 2025. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9, 14.5 K/9 in 4 1/3 IP.
Last start: ND, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in 4-3 home win vs. Braves Friday
2024 home splits: 6-7, 3.03 ERA (86 IP, 29 ER), 8 HR, 28 BB, 93 K, 1.01 WHIP in 14 starts
2024 vs. Guardians: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 7-0 road win July 20
Career vs. Guardians: 6-5, 3.57 ERA (70 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 7 HR, 23 BB, 67 K, 1.30 WHIP in 13 starts
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Guardians at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:42 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Guardians +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
: Guardians +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100) Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Padres -1.5 (+135)
: Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Padres -1.5 (+135) Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Guardians at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Guardians 3
The PADRES (-175) are a little on the pricey side, but still under my personal limit for a singular moneyline bet of -180. If you have a profit boost or promo to use, even better.
The Guardians cannot be trusted, as they've cobbled together just 2 runs of offense in the first 2 games in San Diego.
If you're super conservative, consider GUARDIANS +1.5 (-160) catching the run and a half. They haven't shown a lot of ability at the plate so far in San Diego, but the fill-in Opening Day starter Lively should be able to keep Cleveland in this game. Cease has a long history against the Guardians, with mixed results.
UNDER 7.5 (-105) is the lean, but only go with a half-unit play at most.
The Under is 3-1-1 in the past 5 games for the Padres, with the pitching staff having twirled 3 shutouts in the past 4 outings.
The Guardians have plated 3 or fewer runs in 3 of the past 4 games, splitting the Over-Under in those contests.
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