New Analyst Report Lifts Almonty Target Price to CDN$5.50

The Market Online

4 days ago

Almonty Industries Inc.—a tungsten play that's gone from obscure critical minerals junior to one of the most closely watched names in the Western supply chain realignment.
Fresh off shareholder approval to redomicile to the U.S., Almonty is charging toward production at its flagship Sangdong Mine in South Korea, a site set to become the largest tungsten operation outside China. A fresh offtake deal with a US defense contractor has locked in exclusive supply for missiles, drones, and other strategic applications, adding real weight to Almonty's 'critical mineral' status.
APT prices have jumped 25% since February, investor appetite is surging, and Almonty's latest quarterly results, while still showing red ink, are being positioned as a turning point.
To break it all down, we're joined by Matthias Greiffenberger, an Analyst at GBC AG Research, who just released a report lifting Almonty's price target to CDN$5.50.
Matthias has been tracking the company's pivot toward vertical integration, geopolitical alignment, and defense sector exposure. So, we're going to pressure test that outlook and see how much of the runway is real, and how much is just runway lighting.
The following is a transcription of the above video, and The Market Online has edited it for clarity.
Lyndsay: So why don't we start with your increase. You've raised your target price on Almonty to CDN$5.50 up from CDN$4.20, largely on the back of rising a APT prices and the Sangdong momentum. So my question is, how much of that upside is baked into sentiment versus actual operational de-risking?
Matthias: Yes, So the target price increase really reflects a combination of tangible progress and supportive market dynamics. The tungsten price has jumped about 25% in February, which obviously lifts the top line potential.
Also, Almonty has hit major operational milestones. So, the Sangdong Mine is essentially construction complete. They've secured final project financing drawdowns, and the commissioning is around the corner. Also, Almonty got the binding offtake agreement with a US defense contractor. So I'd say the upside is rooted in fundamentals, but it's finally catching up to the long-term narrative.
Lyndsay: Now, the report also paints Sangdong as a geopolitical trophy in that tungsten war. However, given that commercial production hasn't started quite yet, I mean, how much of Almonty's current valuation is running on narrative over fundamentals?
Matthias: I think for Almonty, it's mostly based on reality. On the one hand, the geopolitical narrative is very compelling. It's the only large scale conflict free tungsten mine outside of China with the direct alignment to the US and allied defense needs. And that gives Almonty a clear macro story, but it's more than just a concept.
The mine is essentially built, the financing is secured and they've signed real commercial agreements. So the stock market is already reacting. And what we are seeing in the valuation is a market that is pricing in the near term execution and based on the current progress, I think that seems justified.
Lyndsay: So, let's flip over here then. You're forecasting CDN$222 million EBITDA by 2027, yet this quarter's adjusted EBITDA was still deeply negative. So what's the inflection point in your model that flips the story from speculative to cash machine?
Matthias: I think the inflection point is quite clear. It's the switch on of Sangdong. The mine is set to enter production, the second half of 2025 with ramp up completed by year end. So that's when we expect the shift from development stage overhead to revenue generating operations. And also, Sangdong's grades are significantly higher than what we see at Panasqueira in Portugal.
So that translates into much stronger production economics. So once the ore starts moving, we anticipate a rapid margin expansion, and the business is transitioning then into a cash machine.
Lyndsay: Matthias let's look at the risk side of that. The $25.8 million non-cash warrant revelation knocked report earnings hard, is this just IFRS noise or a structural overhang that investors need to factor into their long-term thesis?
Matthias: Honestly, it's mostly accounting noise though important to understand. The loss comes from IFRS rules around the market valuation of outstanding warrants. And because Almonty's share price more than doubled in the quarter, those warrants, which are liabilities on the books, have to revalue it higher. And that's generating a non-cash loss. So, it doesn't reflect business weakness. In fact, it reflects strength in the stock price. So, it's something to be aware of, but it's not a structural issue.
So, all in all, Almonty is entering a transformational phase. The groundwork has been laid, the financing, the infrastructure, the partnerships, and now we are on the verge of seeing the full impact of the development.
Lyndsay: Well, that's a wrap on this episode of Capital Compass. Thank you Matthias, for going beyond the headline numbers and walking us through the real drivers behind this new CDN$5.50 price target on Almonty. So definitely come back again and give us some more insight soon.
To dig into the full report you can find it at GBC Research, and to learn more about GBC and their confllicts of interest, head to their website at gbc-ag.de/en. I'm Lyndsay Malchuk with Stockhouse Publishing
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