US builds next-generation bunker buster with China in mind
After blasting Iran's nuke bunkers with 13-ton bombs, the US is racing to build a smarter, sleeker penetrator for the next war, possibly with China.
This month, The War Zone (TWZ) reported that in the wake of the US Air Force's first combat use of the 13,000-kilogram GBU-57/B massive ordnance penetrator during the June strikes on Iran's Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities under Operation Midnight Hammer, the US Department of Defense has accelerated efforts to develop a successor: the next generation penetrator (NGP).
The strikes, which involved 14 MOPs delivered exclusively by B-2 bombers, underscored both the weapon's precision and its operational limitations, particularly in light of the B-21 Raider's reduced payload capacity. A February 2024 US Air Force contracting notice outlines NGP requirements, including sub-9,900-kilogram warheads capable of precision strikes with a circular error probable of within 2.2 meters.
Notably, the NGP may feature standoff capability via propulsion systems, improved void-sensing or embedded fuzing technologies, and enhanced or scalable terminal effects. The push for a successor, spurred by lessons from past MOP development and growing global interest in deeply buried facilities, targets adversaries beyond Iran, including North Korea, China, and Russia.
The US Air Force aims to receive initial prototypes within two years of contract award, though a complete operational deployment timeline remains unspecified, according to the same February 2024 USAF notice. The future NGP is likely to form part of the Long Range Strike system, alongside platforms like the B-21 and the AGM-181A Long-Range Stand-Off (LRSO) missile, making it a critical asset for penetrating hardened targets.
This need to address hardened targets more effectively, highlighted by possible limitations in the Iran strikes, may have prompted the US to fast-track NGP development, especially with peer adversaries like China in mind.
Multiple media outlets cited a leaked US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report stating that US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities failed to destroy the core of the program and merely set it back by months.
Du Wenlong noted in the South China Morning Post that Iran's Fordow site lies 80 meters underground, 30 meters deeper than the GBU-57's stated penetration capability, raising doubts as to whether the strike hit critical infrastructure.
Song Zhongping said in the same article that although the US dropped 14 bombs, satellite imagery showed six craters, suggesting two bombs may have been aimed at each target, possibly to reinforce penetration. He added that while some infrastructure may have been damaged, complete elimination is implausible.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth downplayed the DIA report's findings, calling them 'preliminary,' and noting that the report itself states battle damage assessment takes weeks to complete. Hegseth said the report was not coordinated with the intelligence community and suffers from low confidence due to information gaps.
These Iranian lessons could foreshadow far more complex strike dilemmas in a potential conflict with China. In a November 2024 RAND report, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga and others at RAND noted that if initial US strikes on China's maritime and surface assets fail, the US may need to launch long-range conventional attacks against China's buried inland facilities.
Beauchamp-Mustafaga and others wrote that command-and-control nodes and missile storage sites are essential to sustaining People's Liberation Army (PLA) operations.
Satellite imagery cited by Newsweek in May 2025 shows a 1,500-acre site dubbed 'Beijing Military City' near Qinglonghu, southwest of the capital, with deep pits believed to house hardened bunkers capable of sheltering China's leadership in a nuclear war.
Hans Kristensen and others wrote in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in March 2025 that China built over 320 underground missile silos between 2021 and 2025 at Yumen in Gansu, Hami in Xinjiang, and Ordos in Inner Mongolia, significantly expanding its nuclear deterrent capabilities.
They stated these silos, with standardized layouts, are designed for solid-fuel DF-41 ICBMs with potential launch-on-warning capability, supported by hardened command infrastructure and possibly nearby underground storage. They also noted continued DF-5B silo construction, reinforcing survivability through dual platforms.
Furthermore, Greg Weaver argued in an April 2025 Atlantic Council report that standoff capability is essential for enhancing US aircraft survivability when striking mainland China.
He noted that China's advanced air defenses and long-range missiles pose serious threats to forward-deployed US aircraft, making it vital to use standoff delivery systems that launch from outside the range of Chinese defenses.
Yet even with advanced penetrators and standoff options, strikes on the Chinese mainland carry severe risks. In a 2021 Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs article, Brian McLean argued that while some strategists believe China can differentiate between conventional and nuclear attacks, hitting leadership bunkers or missile forces might be mistaken for a decapitation or disarmament attempt.
He warned that even conventional strikes affecting China's nuclear posture or regime stability could provoke a nuclear response, especially if China perceives its second-strike capability as compromised.
As the US weighs options beyond tactical reach, the broader question of deterrence comes into play. McLean said the best way to avoid escalation may be a strategy of deterrence by denial, convincing China not to attack Taiwan in the first place.
However, Chen Xi wrote in a September 2022 article for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that deterrence by denial hinges on forward-deployed forces and regional basing, both of which are increasingly vulnerable to China's growing missile capabilities and anti-access/area denial systems.
Chen cautioned that this posture could fuel perceptions of encirclement or US intent to strike first, raising escalation risks. He also pointed to practical limitations, including the difficulty of dispersing assets across allied territories, uncertain host-nation support, and ambiguous defense commitments that may weaken US credibility.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
AllAfrica
8 hours ago
- AllAfrica
Give the A-10s to Taiwan and they can stop a Chinese sea invasion
The US Air Force proposes to 'divest' itself of 162 A-10 Warthog aircraft by 2026 and send them to the boneyard at Davis Monthan Airbase in Tucson, Arizona. There the A-10s would rot away in the sun. If the US Air Force does not want them anymore, they would be gone by the end of 2026 or sooner. Sending them to the scrap heap would be a massive mistake. Better to send them to Taiwan where they could make a major contribution to defending the island. Taiwan faces the risk of a massive invasion from China, something the Chinese army, navy and air force have been practicing for years. The US knows the risk of a Chinese invasion, and Washington has accelerated its efforts to pivot to the Pacific. Planners know that any attack on Taiwan could end US influence in the region and deprive the US of vital assets, including specialized semiconductors needed for the Artificial Intelligence revolution. Companies such as Nvidia, which calls itself the world leader in artificial intelligence computing, relies on Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) to manufacture their advanced chips. A scene at TSMC. No matter how you look at it, Taiwan will have to shoulder the burden of an initial attack by China. The first few days will be critical. Swarms of Chinese invasion craft, supported by missiles and drones, will push Taiwan's modest defense resources to the breaking point. Taiwan's air force consists of modernized, but quite old, F-16s and home-grown short-legged F-CK-1 Ching Kuo fighter jets. A near-fourth generation jet, the F-CK-1 is underpowered and has limited range and endurance. Taiwan's existing aircraft are unlikely to be able to stop an incoming invasion fleet, or support Taiwanese air defenses by knocking out swarms of drones. F-CK-1A model. The A-10, however, can do both jobs, and it is more sturdy and survivable than any Taiwan air force jet in the inventory. The A-10 also has superior firepower and is equipped with new weapons ideally suited to sinking an invasion fleet or blasting away at drones. An A-10 peels away from a KC-135 tanker over Afghanistan, February 2011 with Pave Penny pod visible and featuring a false canopy painted in dark gray on the underside. The A-10 is a creature of the 1970s. Originally built by the now defunct Fairchild-Republic company between 1972 to 1984 in Farmingdale, New York, the A-10 was conceived as a ground attack plane to knock out Soviet tanks and other armor on the battlefield. Its creators thought of the A-10 playing a big role in stopping a Soviet invasion of then-West Germany through the Fulda Gap, an ideal funnel where Soviet armor could be picked off. That mission faded away just as the USSR dematerialized. But over the years, and especially in the last half decade, the remaining A-10s have been significantly modified and equipped to carry new weapons that were not yet dreamed about in the 1970s. Equipped with new, sturdy wings, new electronics and fire control, laser designators, and 'smart' rocket pods, the A-10's upgrades complement the huge firepower of its GAU-8 Avenger 30mm hydraulically driven seven-barrel Gatling-style autocannon. The autocannon fires PGU-14/B armor-piercing incendiary rounds featuring a depleted uranium penetrator that can easily tear up any landing ship or other seagoing vessel. The new star of the show is the A-10's ability to fire the new/old 70mm Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II. The APKWS is an old Hydra unguided rocket that is upgraded with a guidance kit that is operated with a laser designator to hit a target. APKWS recently were diverted to the Middle East from Ukraine because they proved valuable in shooting down Houthi drones. The APKWS II system is highly effective but cheap compared with using air-to-air missiles to knock out drones. The cost of a Sidewinder AIM-9X missile is around $600,000; typically two are fired at a target to nail it. The all up cost of the APKWS including the unguided Hydra unguided rocket (which are about $3,000 each) is less than $25,000. Because it is a man-in-the-loop guidance package – unlike the Sidewinder, which uses an infrared seeker – the chance for a successful hit is better. Sidewinder has far better range, but most of the time small drones are not picked up by radar or E/O sensors until they are much nearer. The range of the APKWS is around two miles. Most drones cannot fight back, so knocking them out of the sky is a turkey shoot. If Taiwan had the full fleet of A-10s it could focus its air defenses against Chinese missiles and let the A-10s operate against drones. If Taiwan had the full fleet of A-10s it could focus its air defenses against Chinese missiles and let the A-10s operate against drones. Compared with modern jet fighters the cost of operating the A-10 is far lower, coming in at $6,000 to $9,000 per hour compared versus the F-16's $30,000 per hour. A-10 aircraft are made to be robust, including titanium armor to protect the cockpit and self-sealing fuel tanks if the plane is hit by ground fire. The upgraded A-10s also has a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) which means it can see targets even in bad weather. This means that if the PLA Navy tries to launch an invasion in heavy overcast conditions, thinking it can preclude Taiwan's use of airpower, the SAR upgrade takes that strategy off the table because SAR can see through clouds, mist and bad weather. In the past Taiwan has always wanted the newest and the greatest, not old stuff that the US has often dumped on the island. That view is understandable, but the A-10 must be viewed as a formidable exception. The A-10 would hand to Taiwan a capability it sorely lacks, and one that China will fear. With F-16s challenging China's air arm, the A-10 can sink an invasion fleet and do so quickly. In the past the US has refused to export the A-10, a strange posture considering that the Air Force has a low opinion of the fighter. But the potential struggle over Taiwan is looming. Taiwanese air crews could quickly be trained here by the existing operators, and support and maintenance assets rapidly transferred to the island. Any new equipment, if we had any, will take years to materialize and probably can't duplicate the flexibility and utility of the A-10. So, if the Air Force does not want the A-10, the A-10 can still contribute to Taiwan's defense and to security in the Pacific region. Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.
AllAfrica
13 hours ago
- AllAfrica
US builds next-generation bunker buster with China in mind
After blasting Iran's nuke bunkers with 13-ton bombs, the US is racing to build a smarter, sleeker penetrator for the next war, possibly with China. This month, The War Zone (TWZ) reported that in the wake of the US Air Force's first combat use of the 13,000-kilogram GBU-57/B massive ordnance penetrator during the June strikes on Iran's Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities under Operation Midnight Hammer, the US Department of Defense has accelerated efforts to develop a successor: the next generation penetrator (NGP). The strikes, which involved 14 MOPs delivered exclusively by B-2 bombers, underscored both the weapon's precision and its operational limitations, particularly in light of the B-21 Raider's reduced payload capacity. A February 2024 US Air Force contracting notice outlines NGP requirements, including sub-9,900-kilogram warheads capable of precision strikes with a circular error probable of within 2.2 meters. Notably, the NGP may feature standoff capability via propulsion systems, improved void-sensing or embedded fuzing technologies, and enhanced or scalable terminal effects. The push for a successor, spurred by lessons from past MOP development and growing global interest in deeply buried facilities, targets adversaries beyond Iran, including North Korea, China, and Russia. The US Air Force aims to receive initial prototypes within two years of contract award, though a complete operational deployment timeline remains unspecified, according to the same February 2024 USAF notice. The future NGP is likely to form part of the Long Range Strike system, alongside platforms like the B-21 and the AGM-181A Long-Range Stand-Off (LRSO) missile, making it a critical asset for penetrating hardened targets. This need to address hardened targets more effectively, highlighted by possible limitations in the Iran strikes, may have prompted the US to fast-track NGP development, especially with peer adversaries like China in mind. Multiple media outlets cited a leaked US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report stating that US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities failed to destroy the core of the program and merely set it back by months. Du Wenlong noted in the South China Morning Post that Iran's Fordow site lies 80 meters underground, 30 meters deeper than the GBU-57's stated penetration capability, raising doubts as to whether the strike hit critical infrastructure. Song Zhongping said in the same article that although the US dropped 14 bombs, satellite imagery showed six craters, suggesting two bombs may have been aimed at each target, possibly to reinforce penetration. He added that while some infrastructure may have been damaged, complete elimination is implausible. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth downplayed the DIA report's findings, calling them 'preliminary,' and noting that the report itself states battle damage assessment takes weeks to complete. Hegseth said the report was not coordinated with the intelligence community and suffers from low confidence due to information gaps. These Iranian lessons could foreshadow far more complex strike dilemmas in a potential conflict with China. In a November 2024 RAND report, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga and others at RAND noted that if initial US strikes on China's maritime and surface assets fail, the US may need to launch long-range conventional attacks against China's buried inland facilities. Beauchamp-Mustafaga and others wrote that command-and-control nodes and missile storage sites are essential to sustaining People's Liberation Army (PLA) operations. Satellite imagery cited by Newsweek in May 2025 shows a 1,500-acre site dubbed 'Beijing Military City' near Qinglonghu, southwest of the capital, with deep pits believed to house hardened bunkers capable of sheltering China's leadership in a nuclear war. Hans Kristensen and others wrote in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in March 2025 that China built over 320 underground missile silos between 2021 and 2025 at Yumen in Gansu, Hami in Xinjiang, and Ordos in Inner Mongolia, significantly expanding its nuclear deterrent capabilities. They stated these silos, with standardized layouts, are designed for solid-fuel DF-41 ICBMs with potential launch-on-warning capability, supported by hardened command infrastructure and possibly nearby underground storage. They also noted continued DF-5B silo construction, reinforcing survivability through dual platforms. Furthermore, Greg Weaver argued in an April 2025 Atlantic Council report that standoff capability is essential for enhancing US aircraft survivability when striking mainland China. He noted that China's advanced air defenses and long-range missiles pose serious threats to forward-deployed US aircraft, making it vital to use standoff delivery systems that launch from outside the range of Chinese defenses. Yet even with advanced penetrators and standoff options, strikes on the Chinese mainland carry severe risks. In a 2021 Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs article, Brian McLean argued that while some strategists believe China can differentiate between conventional and nuclear attacks, hitting leadership bunkers or missile forces might be mistaken for a decapitation or disarmament attempt. He warned that even conventional strikes affecting China's nuclear posture or regime stability could provoke a nuclear response, especially if China perceives its second-strike capability as compromised. As the US weighs options beyond tactical reach, the broader question of deterrence comes into play. McLean said the best way to avoid escalation may be a strategy of deterrence by denial, convincing China not to attack Taiwan in the first place. However, Chen Xi wrote in a September 2022 article for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that deterrence by denial hinges on forward-deployed forces and regional basing, both of which are increasingly vulnerable to China's growing missile capabilities and anti-access/area denial systems. Chen cautioned that this posture could fuel perceptions of encirclement or US intent to strike first, raising escalation risks. He also pointed to practical limitations, including the difficulty of dispersing assets across allied territories, uncertain host-nation support, and ambiguous defense commitments that may weaken US credibility.
South China Morning Post
a day ago
- South China Morning Post
Could Cambodia hit the Thai capital with its made-in-China weapons?
Cambodia could use Chinese-made weapons to strike Thailand but they would not put the Thai capital within reach, and Beijing is unlikely to stand by if border tensions erupt into military conflict, according to a Chinese analyst. 'China's weapon exports are defensive in nature, and after purchase, ownership and usage rights belong entirely to the recipient country,' former People's Liberation Army instructor Song Zhongping said. 'China would not wish to see two of its traditional friends at war, even over territorial disputes,' he said, adding that Beijing would seek to facilitate negotiations and a ceasefire. 'Thailand is both a traditional friend of China and a traditional ally of the United States, while Cambodia has close ties with China.' 03:41 Thai government hangs by thread as leaked phone call shreds PM Paetongtarn's credibility Thai government hangs by thread as leaked phone call shreds PM Paetongtarn's credibility The assessment follows a report in the Bangkok-based news site The Nation on Friday quoting Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen as saying that his country had weapons 'that can reach Bangkok'.
