Why This Mega-Bear Thinks Tesla Stock Is Headed for $19 in 2025

Globe and Mail

2 days ago

Boutique equity research firm GLJ Research is not shy about how bearish it is on Tesla (TSLA). Run by founder Gordon Johnson, the firm reiterated a $19.05 price target, the Street low, on Tesla shares in early May. This means that the firm believes the stock will decline by an alarming 94.3% over the next 12 months.
The firm's coverage on Tesla is quite extensive. While one recent report cites the company's dwindling sales in Europe as a red flag, another highlights why the global demand slowdown gives Tesla no room to win the full self-driving battle.
Here is how investors should consider this shocking price target.
Tesla Has Had a Bumpy 2025
Tesla's first-quarter 2025 results were disappointing as the company reported a 9% decline in total revenue year-over-year and a 24.5% sequential decline, bringing in $19.3 billion for the quarter. The company's core automotive division was hit particularly hard, experiencing a sharp 20% drop in sales to $13.9 billion.
Profitability also came under greater strain during the period. Earnings per share plunged 40% to $0.27, falling well short of the $0.41 consensus forecast.
Thus, even after a strong recovery over the past month, the stock is still down 17.2% on a YTD basis.
The BYD Threat
From being dismissive of the Chinese car company about a decade ago to acknowledging its threat, Musk's opinions about BYD (BYDDY) have drastically changed over the years.
This is what he had to say about the company in 2011, 'Have you seen their car? I don't think they have a great product. Their technology is not very strong.'
Cut to 2024, and Musk's thoughts about BYD and its impact on other global car companies sounded ominous, 'Frankly, I think, if there are not trade barriers established, [Chinese EV makers] will pretty much demolish most other companies in the world.'
Since then BYD has been outpacing Tesla in sales and deliveries. The latest Q1 2025 numbers bears testimony to that fact as BYD sold 416,388 battery electric vehicles compared to Tesla's 336,681 units. This marks the second consecutive quarter where BYD's BEV sales surpassed Tesla's.
Further, BYD recently announced summer price cuts for 22 of its battery-powered and plug-in hybrid models, ranging from 10% to 30%, which is expected to put further pressure on Tesla.
Negative Brand Impact and European Woes
Elon Musk's alignment with President Donald Trump has sparked significant backlash against Tesla from both would-be buyers and members of the general public. This discontent reached a boiling point in March 2025, when widespread protests and boycott campaigns targeting the Tesla brand began to surface. In more severe cases, acts of vandalism were reported, inflicting damage on Tesla dealerships and service centers. One particularly troubling survey underscores the growing unrest. Of 508 Tesla owners polled, 46% reported incidents of vandalism involving their vehicles, while 33% indicated an intention to part ways with their cars within the next year.
Tesla's challenges appear even more pronounced across Europe. In April, the company saw a stark 49% year-over-year decline in deliveries, even as the European electric vehicle market expanded by 34.10% during the same period. On a cumulative basis, Tesla's sales in the region have fallen roughly 40% since the beginning of 2025. Industry analysts point to growing competitive pressure from emerging Asian automakers, coupled with the fallout from Musk's polarizing statements and behavior, as the key forces driving this downward trend.
Yet……
And yet here we are. Tesla stock has reclaimed some of its mojo in recent weeks. It is up 16.5% in the last month and has regained its place in the trillion-dollar market cap club. Investors are celebrating that Musk has left his role with the Department of Government Efficiency to return full time to Tesla.
Further, despite the negative sentiment around the company, Tesla remains a cash-generating machine. In Q1 2025, Tesla posted a sharp rebound in operating cash flow, which climbed to $2.2 billion, an impressive improvement over the $242 million recorded in the same quarter of the prior year. Free cash flow also turned positive again, reaching $664 million, reversing a significant outflow of $2.5 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. The quarter concluded with Tesla holding a strong liquidity buffer, as its total cash reserves stood at $37 billion.
Moreover, if you zoom out, most of the worries around Tesla are transient and revolve around its automotive business. Granted, the automotive business remains the core revenue and profit generator for the company, but it is working actively on some groundbreaking markets such as energy storage, humanoid robots, and artificial intelligence to develop multiple revenue sources in the future.
Finally, Tesla is making moves to address the growth issues in its core automotive business with the launch of its robotaxi services soon. Also, plans are afoot to introduce lower-cost variants by utilizing Tesla's existing manufacturing infrastructure. This approach is intended to make the company's offerings more accessible to a broader consumer base while avoiding the substantial capital expenditure that would be required to establish additional production facilities.
Analyst Opinions on TSLA Stock
Overall, the analyst community has an average rating of 'Hold' for Tesla stock, with a mean target price of $292.17, which has already been surpassed. However, the high target price of $500 implies upside potential of about 50% from current levels. Out of 41 analysts covering the stock, 16 have a 'Strong Buy' rating, two have a 'Moderate Buy' rating, 13 have a 'Hold' rating, and 10 have a 'Strong Sell' rating.