On US Independence Day, 44% in California, the world's 4th largest economy, want to secede - is a breakaway vote next?

Time of India

11 hours ago

California independence: Is the Golden State ready to go its own way?-
A new YouGov poll commissioned by the Independent California Institute has revealed striking numbers that reflect a growing sense of disconnection between Californians and the federal government. Conducted between June 11 and June 23, 2025, the poll shows a significant tilt toward California autonomy, with many residents favoring more control over borders, law enforcement, immigration, and even tax revenue.
Do Californians trust Sacramento more than Washington?
Yes—and by a big margin. According to the poll, 50% of Californians say they trust the state government in Sacramento more than the federal government in Washington, D.C. Only 23% said the opposite. The rest either trusted both equally or weren't sure. This marks a steep collapse in trust for the federal government, particularly since President Donald Trump took office earlier this year.
Californians' identity has also shifted. More residents now say they feel "more Californian than American" than ever before. Though most still feel equally both, the shift toward a distinct Californian identity may be a sign of what's to come.
Could California really become an autonomous state within the U.S.?
That idea is gaining strong traction. A record-high 71% of Californians say they believe the state would be better off if it had 'special autonomous status' within the United States. This would mean more control over federal tax dollars paid by Californians and greater decision-making authority on key issues.
Support for forming a state commission to push for that goal remains steady. Nearly two-thirds want this commission to focus on negotiations with Congress to achieve greater autonomy. However, with California underrepresented in the U.S. Senate and Electoral College, gaining such autonomy may require strong leverage in the House of Representatives.
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Are Californians seriously considering secession?
Maybe not yet—but they're thinking about it. The poll shows 56% of respondents believe California would be better off as an independent country through peaceful secession. But when asked if they would vote for a ballot measure declaring California's intention to secede legally and peacefully, only 44% said yes, while 54% said no.
Why the gap? Pollsters suggest that while people believe secession would improve life in California, fewer think it's actually possible. Many believe Congress would never approve such a move. Even so, support for peaceful secession is growing, especially among those who believe federal overreach is harming the state.
Are Californians ready to control their own borders and law enforcement?
In a surprising show of strength, 80% of Californians say the state should control its own borders 'like a country.' That includes using Border Control Stations to screen for illegal guns, drugs, and contraband—not just agricultural pests.
Support for challenging federal authority is also high. A full 72% of Californians say state police should arrest federal immigration officers who act maliciously or exceed their legal authority. This is based on legal precedent, including the federal appellate case Clifton v. Cox, which ruled that federal agents aren't immune from state prosecution if they act outside the law.
On immigration, 74% support state citizenship for long-term residents who aren't U.S. citizens. Meanwhile, 72% want to hold California officials civilly accountable if they help federal agents violate immigrants' due process rights.
Is a California secession vote on the horizon?
There is no formal ballot initiative, legislation, or scheduled vote to put secession on the ballot in California. The idea remains largely symbolic and protest-driven, fueled by deep political divides and increasing friction between Sacramento and Washington D.C.
Legally, any attempt to secede would face immense constitutional barriers. The U.S. Supreme Court's 1869 ruling in
Texas v. White
made it clear: no U.S. state can unilaterally leave the Union.
To legally secede, California would need:
A constitutional amendment
Two-thirds approval in Congress
Ratification by at least 38 state legislatures
In today's polarized political climate, this is nearly impossible.
How Trump's actions are intensifying California's breakaway sentiment
President Trump's ongoing confrontations with California Governor Gavin Newsom have only deepened the state's desire for autonomy.
Most recently:
Trump granted U.S. military control over a federally owned strip of land along California's border—part of his aggressive southern border policy.
His administration continues to challenge California's environmental and immigration laws.
Tensions peaked when Trump deployed the National Guard to Los Angeles during protests, prompting Newsom to push back on federal overreach.
Though some critics claim Trump is 'taking land' from California, what's really happening is a federal assertion of authority over national lands and border zones—actions that are legal, but politically inflammatory.
This dynamic is creating a narrative in California that Washington is increasingly at odds with the will of its people, especially on climate, immigration, and civil rights.
Why California's economic power changes the secession conversation
California isn't just any state—it's the world's fourth-largest economy, trailing only the U.S. as a whole, China, and Germany.
With a GDP surpassing $4.3 trillion, California:
Leads the U.S. in technology, agriculture, and entertainment exports
Hosts more Fortune 500 companies than most countries
Collects more federal tax revenue than it receives in return
Secession advocates argue California could survive—even thrive—as an independent nation. But experts warn of serious challenges:
Loss of access to federal defense and infrastructure funding
Trade and border complications
Legal fights over water rights, airspace, and currency
So, while the economy gives California leverage, independence would still carry enormous risks.
What do Californians think about reclaiming federal land and water?
The poll also found strong support for taking back control of public land and water systems. About 63% of respondents want the state to gain authority over nearly all federal land and water infrastructure within California. This sentiment rose sharply after the Trump administration ordered the Army Corps of Engineers to waste over 2.2 billion gallons of water in January 2025—an incident many Californians saw as a political stunt.
Supporters argue that state and local governments are more likely to preserve public land and manage resources efficiently. The idea isn't to sell off the land but to bring it under California's management, especially as the state faces recurring droughts and wildfires.
How far are Californians willing to go on immigration policy?
Very far. Here are some key findings from the poll's immigration section:
72%
support arresting ICE agents who act with malice or outside legal limits.
76%
want to give county boards power to remove sheriffs who violate state law.
57%
want full non-cooperation with federal immigration authorities.
58%
would support a government shutdown to stop mass deportations.
74%
want a path to state citizenship for immigrants living in California long-term.
These results show a deep desire for California to chart its own path on immigration, especially under a federal administration seen as hostile to immigrant communities.
What economic policies are Californians backing for independence?
If California were to stand more on its own, it would need financial tools to support its autonomy. The poll found strong support for several economic policies:
69%
favor raising taxes on millionaires to recoup Trump-era tax cuts.
77%
support expanding the state's Rainy Day Fund, possibly through a constitutional amendment (ACA 1).
Many also support creating a sovereign wealth fund, similar to the Alaska Permanent Fund, to generate long-term state income.
These measures show that Californians are thinking beyond ideology—they want concrete fiscal policies to support greater state self-reliance.
Do Californians want to bypass the U.S. Supreme Court or stop flying the U.S. flag?
Surprisingly, no. While many Californians support independence in practice, symbolic gestures are less popular. Only 28% favor removing the U.S. flag from government buildings. This suggests that while frustration with Washington is high, residents still see themselves as Americans—at least for now.
On the legal front, Californians are split on whether their state Supreme Court should bypass federal court decisions they see as unconstitutional. This highlights a tension between legal realism and idealism in how far Californians want their state to go.
What's next for the California independence movement?
The poll results show clear support for greater autonomy and even soft secession—but full independence is still a step too far for most voters. However, the sentiment is growing. Californians are tired of federal interference, especially under Trump's administration, and want to take more control of their resources, immigration policy, and tax revenue.
Whether through secession, autonomy, or just assertive state governance, California seems ready to redefine its relationship with Washington.
FAQs:
Q1. What is the California independence movement about in 2025?
It's about Californians wanting more control over laws, borders, and federal funding.
Q2. Do most Californians support California becoming an autonomous state?
Yes, 71% support California negotiating special autonomous status within the U.S.