IonQ, D-Wave, and Rigetti Face Off Ahead of Earnings – Who's Nearest to Commercial Breakthrough?
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First is IonQ, which has built the most ambitious roadmap of the three. It has also struck high-profile partnerships with AstraZeneca (AZN), Amazon Web Services (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA), backing its trapped-ion architecture. The company is actively involved in enterprise research in pharma, aerospace, and artificial intelligence. It's also investing in a dedicated quantum computer factory to scale hardware for commercial delivery, targeting interconnected quantum systems by 2028.
Recent acquisitions, including Oxford Ionics and Lightsynq, strengthen its hardware stack and roadmap for networking quantum systems. Revenue growth has been steady since 2021, and although IonQ remains unprofitable, its trajectory shows growing market traction. Analyst sentiment is optimistic. Five analysts rate it a Buy, one a Hold. The average 12-month price target is $43, about 3.7% above the current price of $41.47.
D-Wave: Visible Path to Commercialization
D-Wave Quantum is the only company in the group with confirmed commercial sales of its hardware. Its Q1 2025 revenue reached $15 million, a 500% increase year-over-year, driven by a direct sale to a commercial customer. The company's 'Advantage2' platform achieved quantum supremacy on an optimization task, transitioning from a pilot stage to operational use cases in logistics and manufacturing.
D-Wave is also expanding its Quantum Compute as a Service (QCaaS) business, which supports recurring revenue and makes its commercialization path more visible. Analysts are broadly supportive, with seven Buys and no Holds or Sells. The average price target is $17.33, reflecting a 7.3% upside from the current price of $16.15.
Rigetti: Commercial Outlook Still Lagging
Rigetti Computing is the most research-focused of the three. Its superconducting qubit architecture is technically solid, but the company remains tied to government and academic revenue. A $100 million partnership with Quanta Computer may accelerate development, but broader commercialization still depends on solving key fidelity and scalability challenges. Revenue in Q1 2025 came in at just $1.47 million. Although Rigetti posted net income of $42.6 million, that gain was tied to other income and not recurring operations.
Rigetti's stock is down more than 16% year-to-date. Analysts remain bullish, with seven Buys and an average price target of $15, implying 17.9% upside from the current $12.72 price. But the commercial outlook still lags behind.
Conclusion
D-Wave Quantum is currently the most commercially active, having already closed real customer deals. IonQ has broader partnerships and a deeper long-term roadmap, positioning it as a potential platform leader. Rigetti, while technologically credible, remains focused on research and government contracts, with its path to widespread commercial adoption still taking shape. Ahead of Q2 earnings, investors may watch for updates on commercial traction, client pipelines, and revenue expansion to gauge who is truly closing in on quantum's commercialization moment.
Using TipRanks' Comparison Tool, we've assembled and compared the three stocks – IONQ, RGTI, and QBTS, to gain a broader look at each stock's overall standings.
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