The frontrunners hotly tipped to replace Pope Francis as cardinals prepare for conclave

Irish Examiner

05-05-2025

There are two frontrunners emerging to replace Pope Francis, with both men well known to the cardinals who will gather in conclave from Wednesday to choose a successor.
Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, and Italian Pietro Parolin are hotly tipped in betting markets around the world.
Luis Tagle
Cardinal Tagle is sometimes called the "Asian Francis" because of his infectious smile, easy laugh, and spontaneity with words.
Like the late Argentine pope, he hails from a country far from the Catholic Church's traditional power base of Europe, and came to Rome with an outsider's view.
Some who have put Tagle on unofficial short lists for the next pope say he would be a shoo-in to succeed Francis if cardinal electors who enter the secret conclave on Wednesday are looking for as close a similarity as possible in order to assertively continue Francis' progressive streak.
If Tagle were elected, it would also likely signal to the world's 1.4 billion Catholics that the cardinals want to go forward with Francis' vision of generally opening up the Church to the modern world by not choosing a man who might roll back some of the late pope's reforms.
"He would represent a continuity of what Pope Francis has been doing," said Rev Emmanuel Alfonso, a former student of Tagle's who has known him for decades.
He's really like Pope Francis in terms of his love for the poor, his approachability and so on.
Tagle, who looks younger than his 67 years, and likes to be called by his diminutive nickname "Chito", has headed the Vatican's Dicastery for Evangelisation, effectively the Church's missionary arm, for the past five years. That position gave him enormous influence over national churches in developing countries.
As archbishop of Manila, and before as bishop of the Philippine city of Imus, Tagle gained pastoral experience in running dioceses in Asia's largest Catholic country. By bringing him to the Vatican in 2020, Francis gave him one more notch in experiences seen as helpful to papal candidates.
Many cardinals already know Tagle personally, and many may see an attraction in having a pope from Asia, viewed by Church leaders as an important region of growth for the faith. Young people feel comfortable with him.
When Tagle hosted Francis for a visit to the Philippines in 2014, the visit drew the largest crowds in the history of papal travel, including a Mass that attracted up to seven million people.
One possible weakness in Tagle's candidacy is that he was involved in a management scandal three years ago.
In 2022, Francis removed him from a second job as titular head of a Vatican-based confederation of 162 Catholic relief, development and social services organisations working in more than 200 countries.
Francis fired the entire leadership of the group, called Caritas Internationalis, following allegations of bullying by top management.
Tagle's role, akin to a chancellor of the organisation, was mostly symbolic and ceremonial. He was not directly involved in day-to-day running and was generally admired by staffers.
While 67 is sunset age in many organisations, it is considered young in the Vatican, because few cardinals want a very long pontificate.
Pietro Parolin
If the cardinals entering the conclave are looking for a steady administrator to run the Church and bring some calm after three consecutive papacies that were at times tempestuous, they may look no further than Pietro Parolin.
Vatican secretary of state Cardinal Pietro Parolin greeting American vice-president JD Vance and his family at the Vatican last month. Picture: Vatican Media via AP
On nearly every media shortlist of papal contenders, Parolin has been the Vatican's secretary of state for the last 12 years, effectively the number two position in the Church. He is also the Vatican's top diplomat.
The two roles mean Parolin — a 70-year-old from a small town in Italy's deeply Catholic northern Veneto region — is perhaps the candidate best known to the 133 cardinal electors.
Cardinals who have visited Rome from around the world on Church business have met him and he has visited most of their countries.
Parolin is seen as a quiet diplomat who is pragmatic more than conservative or progressive. He occasionally had to quietly put out fires caused by the late pope's remarks.
"He [Parolin] knows how to take a punch for the number one and for the institution," said one cleric currently based abroad who has worked with him and has known him for many years, who asked not to be identified because of the secretive nature of the conclave.
One such recent occasion was when the late pope suggested last year that Israel's military campaign in Gaza might amount to genocide. Parolin agreed to meet with then-Israeli ambassador to the Vatican, Raphael Schutz, who told him Israel wanted the pope to say more about Israel's right to defend itself.
When Francis said Ukraine should have the "courage of the white flag" to end the war there, the comment drew widespread criticism from allies of Kyiv but was hailed by Russia. Parolin quietly told diplomats the pope meant negotiations, not surrender.
Parolin has spent nearly all of his career in Vatican diplomacy, in Rome and around the world. He has never headed a Catholic diocese, which would have given him more pastoral experience.
But those who know him say this is not a deficit because in running an organisation as complex as the Vatican's central administration and representing the pope around the world, he has had many contacts with many members of the faithful.
"He travelled to many places and dealt with all categories of people in diverse regional, cultural and linguistic environments. He knows the universal Church," the overseas cleric said.
Some conservative-leaning cardinals in the US and Asia have expressed disagreement with Parolin because he is the main architect of a secret 2018 Vatican agreement with China.
They call the deal, which gives Chinese authorities some say in who will serve as Catholic bishops, a sell-out to the Communist Party. Supporters say it is better than no dialogue at all between the Church and China and even Pope Benedict, known as more conservative than Francis, favoured it.
Parolin's personality is definitely not as charismatic as that of Francis, but some cardinals may see that as a plus.
"Parolin is like Clark Kent without the superman part — mild-mannered, industrious, respected, but not flashy," said one source.